Don't stock market predictions tell you more about the person making
the prediction than the future?
Not exact matches
Science - fictional adventures in an imaginary
future, among extraterrestrial intelligences or
future versions of humanity, are — obviously — not accurate
predictions of our
future, but have more truth in them
than to suppose our current social and biological order is unchanging.
We're not taking their truth more seriously if we take them as literal
predictions about the
future, any more
than Data is interpreting more accurately when he misses the joke.
People are stubborn in their BELIEF even if its proven to be wrong... this is true of ghosts and aliens and miracles and prediciting the
future... the bible is no better
than any other
future predictions... zero evidence... NONE.
Asserting that we do not yet have either the facts or the methods to make forecasting a precise art, Michael argues that there are three basic reasons for continuing to make or act upon them: (1) some forecasts are likely to be close to the mark, (2) poor forecasts provide a better basis for planning
than no
prediction at all, and (3) well - done forecasts help to illuminate the many factors that interact to produce the
future.
analyses and
predictions — stated that increasingly the problems of the
future will require solutions more «theological
than technological.»
It indicates that he is far more skeptical of scientists» capacities to make accurate
predictions beyond the relatively immediate
future than is Hume, who had a strong faith in induction beyond the immediate environment but could not rationally justify it.
I will make a
prediction that this article will do more for responsible decisions on acid rain
than anything done past, present or
future.
Time for some brutal honesty... this team, as it stands, is in no better position to compete next season
than they were 12 months ago, minus the fact that some fans have been easily snowed by the acquisition of Lacazette, the free transfer LB and the release of Sanogo... if you look at the facts carefully you will see a team that still has far more questions
than answers... to better show what I mean by this statement I will briefly discuss the current state of affairs on a position - by - position basis... in goal we have 4 potential candidates, but in reality we have only 1 option with any real
future and somehow he's the only one we have actively tried to get rid of for years because he and his father were a little too involved on social media and he got caught smoking (funny how people still defend Wiltshire under the same and far worse circumstances)... you would think we would want to keep any goaltender that Juventus had interest in, as they seem to have a pretty good history when it comes to that position... as far as the defenders on our current roster there are only a few individuals whom have the skill and / or youth worthy of our time and / or investment, as such we should get rid of anyone who doesn't meet those simple requirements, which means we should get rid of DeBouchy, Gibbs, Gabriel, Mertz and loan out Chambers to see if last seasons foray with Middlesborough was an anomaly or a
prediction of things to come... some fans have lamented wildly about the return of Mertz to the starting lineup due to his FA Cup performance but these sort of pie in the sky meanderings are indicative of what's wrong with this club and it's wishy - washy fan - base... in addition to these moves the club should aggressively pursue the acquisition of dominant and mobile CB to stabilize an all too fragile defensive group that has self - destructed on numerous occasions over the past 5 seasons... moving forward and building on our need to re-establish our once dominant presence throughout the middle of the park we need to target a CDM then do whatever it takes to get that player into the fold without any of the usual nickel and diming we have become famous for (this kind of ruthless haggling has cost us numerous special players and certainly can't help make the player in question feel good about the way their
future potential employer feels about them)... in order for us to become dominant again we need to be strong up the middle again from Goalkeeper to CB to DM to ACM to striker, like we did in our most glorious years before and during Wenger's reign... with this in mind, if we want Ozil to be that dominant attacking midfielder we can't keep leaving him exposed to constant ridicule about his lack of defensive prowess and provide him with the proper players in the final third... he was never a good defensive player in Real or with the German National squad and they certainly didn't suffer as a result of his presence on the pitch... as for the rest of the midfield the blame falls squarely in the hands of Wenger and Gazidis, the fact that Ramsey, Ox, Sanchez and even Ozil were allowed to regularly start when none of the aforementioned had more
than a year left under contract is criminal for a club of this size and financial might... the fact that we could find money for Walcott and Xhaka, who weren't even guaranteed starters, means that our whole business model needs a complete overhaul... for me it's time to get rid of some serious deadweight, even if it means selling them below what you believe their market value is just to simply right this ship and change the stagnant culture that currently exists... this means saying goodbye to Wiltshire, Elneny, Carzola, Walcott and Ramsey... everyone, minus Elneny, have spent just as much time on the training table as on the field of play, which would be manageable if they weren't so inconsistent from a performance standpoint (excluding Carzola, who is like the recent version of Rosicky — too bad, both will be deeply missed)... in their places we need to bring in some proven performers with no history of injuries... up front, although I do like the possibilities that a player like Lacazette presents, the fact that we had to wait so many years to acquire some true quality at the striker position falls once again squarely at the feet of Wenger... this issue highlights the ultimate scam being perpetrated by this club since the arrival of Kroenke: pretend your a small market club when it comes to making purchases but milk your fans like a big market club when it comes to ticket prices and merchandising... I believe the reason why Wenger hasn't pursued someone of Henry's quality, minus a fairly inexpensive RVP, was that he knew that they would demand players of a similar ilk to be brought on board and that wasn't possible when the business model was that of a «selling» club... does it really make sense that we could only make a cheeky bid for Suarez, or that we couldn't get Higuain over the line when he was being offered up for half the price he eventually went to Juve for, or that we've only paid any interest to strikers who were clearly not going to press their current teams to let them go to Arsenal like Benzema or Cavani... just part of the facade that finally came crashing down when Sanchez finally called their bluff... the fact remains that no one wants to win more
than Sanchez, including Wenger, and although I don't agree with everything that he has done off the field, I would much rather have Alexis front and center
than a manager who has clearly bought into the Kroenke model in large part due to the fact that his enormous ego suggests that only he could accomplish great things without breaking the bank... unfortunately that isn't possible anymore as the game has changed quite dramatically in the last 15 years, which has left a largely complacent and complicit Wenger on the outside looking in... so don't blame those players who demanded more and were left wanting... don't blame those fans who have tried desperately to raise awareness for several years when cracks began to appear... place the blame at the feet of those who were well aware all along of the potential pitfalls of just such a plan but continued to follow it even when it was no longer a financial necessity, like it ever really was...
That means the
future of agriculture as the climate changes could be even worse
than this
prediction — and that's before taking into account other factors such as the effect of pests.
Researchers say these results have implications for understanding disease origin rather
than for clinical risk
prediction and
future studies should focus on the mechanisms underlying the relationship between childhood height and later stroke.
That is allowing weather forecasters to push their
predictions further into the
future than ever before, while climate scientists are exploring how the MJO will behave in a warmer world.
They also predicted the hazard just 1 year into the
future, rather
than offering the usual 50 - year
prediction.
Predicted extinction times more
than 100 years in the
future are considered too uncertain and thus aren't considered as valid
predictions of extinction, Koop says.
«If those
predictions were to materialize, then we'd be better off planning for
future different vegetation — rather
than trying to work with what's here now.»
Truth is, if you can suffer through Roos's device of insouciant half - screen captions that periodically comment on the action, critique his characters, broadly clarify his themes, and make
predictions about their
futures (a lot like the video for Van Halen's «Right Now») without punching the person in front of you, you're made of sterner stuff
than I. They've honestly handed out Purple Hearts for less.
Population growth has been slower
than expected, leading to a shortfall against the Norfolk County Council
predictions for
future pupil numbers.
PREDICTION: More female
than male authors are going to be on best - seller and top circulating lists of both print and ebooks in
future months and years.
To the extent that dystopian novels depict anxieties about the present rather
than predictions for the
future, it seems clear that contemporary writers are just as concerned about women's rights as Atwood was in 1985.
Notice above that the daily variation of the spot price and
futures prices as the markets
prediction changes are both much larger
than the barely noticeable drift (from contango) between the spot and
futures price.
While our Fund Manager of the Year awards are recognition of past contributions rather
than predictions of
future results, we're confident in each one's long - term prospects because of their deep research resources and willingness to stick with their discipline in good times and bad.
What makes this transformation in capital even more meaningful is that it is based on what actually happened in FY 2017 rather
than predictions about what might happen in the
future.
Value investors * price * assets based on their value * now * (based on data from the present) rather
than make
predictions about markets in the *
future.
The
future is fairly certain to be different
than the past, and unlikely to fit perfectly with any one person's or company's
prediction of what is to come to pass.
Fund managers make different
predictions about
future market performance, and the differences ultimately generate a distribution curve of returns as some funds do better
than others.
I recall reading Buffet predicted that
future returns for probably a decade could be lower
than the past, but that his and all
predictions are pretty worthless.
Though we like to think we can predict the
future and that hindsight is for the birds, we think we can make some pretty safe
predictions about some upcoming games that are going to leave more disappointed
than satisfied.
But look: The
predictions for the
future would be more dire
than before especially as the aerosol cooling would not be expected to keep up.
Frightening thought — if and only if the AGW centric
prediction of
future climate is either not completely correct, or out right wrong, consider extreme scenarios which would result in a drastically (and painfully) different outcome
than the prophecied sea level rise / climatic tropical expansion / northerly movement of species model.
There are others (at least William Connolley, Brian Schmidt) who are more
than willing to take you on if you disagree with the IPCC
prediction of 0.1 - 0.2 C per decade for the near
future.
The work of Schmittner et al. demonstrates that climates of the past can provide potentially powerful information to reduce uncertainty in
future climate
predictions and evaluate the likelihood of climate change that is larger
than captured in present models.
The report also disappoints in a more fundamental way: it fails to understand the issue of
future ocean circulation changes as an issue of risk assessment, rather
than one of climate
prediction.
All in all the science of hurricanes does appear to be much more fun and interesting
than the average climate change issue, as there is a debate, a «fight» between different hypothesis,
predictions compared to near -
future observations, and all that does not always get pre-eminence in the exchanges about models.
And yes, those models are uncertain, with error bars greater
than zero: as with any
prediction of
future events, you inherently can never be certain you're right until those events have already occurred.
They maintain that the actual forcings (which includes things other
than just CO2) are closest to Hansen's scenario B. Remember this wasn't an exercise in predicting
future CO2, methane, solar, volcanic, etc. forcings, but a
prediction of what could happen under some hypothetical «high», «medium» and «low» forcing scenarios.
Predictions for a long time period can be more reliable than predictions for the immediate future because the longer the forecast horizon, the greater the opportunity for the predictio
Predictions for a long time period can be more reliable
than predictions for the immediate future because the longer the forecast horizon, the greater the opportunity for the predictio
predictions for the immediate
future because the longer the forecast horizon, the greater the opportunity for the
prediction to occur.
Just as a hypothetical example: If climate scientist will tell me that recent pause in global warming is due to the effect of an inactive sun (which is the reality as reported by following) http://www.spaceweather.com and that they will go back and improve their models to account for this, then I would be more inclined to believe their other claims... Instead the IPCC doubles down on their
predictions and claim the
future effects will be worst
than they originally thought?
Not only has the IPCC done remarkably well in projecting
future global surface temperature changes thus far, but it has also performed far better
than the few climate contrarians who have put their money where their mouth is with their own
predictions.
Simulations of
future climate are all based upon assumptions about
future greenhouse gas concentrations and other factors that influence climate; this is one reason why these simulations are referred to as «projections» rather
than «
predictions.»
Why are the words of GM valued as a more accurate
prediction of the
future than the words of ExxonMobil and BP?
For the near
future the uncertainty in climate
prediction justifies choosing polices that guide us towards net negative emissions as quickly as possible and the stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gases at levels significantly lower
than today.
We've heard bold
predictions about the
future of electric vehicles before, like when Thomas Edison made a
prediction in 1914 that still hasn't panned out more
than a century later:
In deference to the unpredictable nature of attempting to forecast global climate (and as an attempt to avoid mistakes previously made) the panel was more cautious
than it was in past reports in making
predictions for the
future.
Could models, which consistently err by several degrees in the 20th century, be trusted for their
future predictions of decadal trends that are much lower
than this error?
Totalitarian propaganda raised ideological scientificality and its technique of making statements in the form of
predictions to a height of efficiency of method and absurdity of content because, demagogically speaking, there is hardly a better way to avoid disussion
than by releasing an argument from the control of the present and by saying that only the
future can reveal its merits.
As the real world evidence mounts that global warming claims are failing, climate activists have ramped up
predictions of
future climate change impacts, declaring that it is «worse
than we thought.»
Rather
than focusing just on methane leakage, the authors of the ERL paper surveyed 23 experts to get their
predictions about
future natural gas supply and then fed those assumptions into a model of the energy system.
Future coupling of demography with existing global land model
predictions could enable assessment of these potentially important die - off responses [44], as well as implementation of more realistic reductions in tree loss to drive scenarios (i.e., enabling assessments of ecological changes less drastic or occurring on shorter time - scales
than conversion from forest to grassland biomes).
Only slightly off - subject: the Guardian's environment editor John Vidal has just published dire
predictions of
future temperatures worse
than Monbiot's worst wet dreams, issuing from an MIT Global Change (that's what they call themselves) thinktank, which is financed by ExxonMobil, Shell, BP and Electricité de France, among others.
-- Muller believes humans are changing climate with CO2 emissions — humans have been responsible for «most» of a 0.4 C warming since 1957, almost none of the warming before then — IPCC is in trouble due to sloppy science, exaggerated
predictions; chairman will have to resign — the «Climategate» mails were not «hacked» — they were «leaked» by an insider — due to «hide the decline» deception, Muller will not read any
future papers by Michael Mann — there has been no increase in hurricanes or tornadoes due to global warming — automobiles are insignificant in overall picture — China is the major CO2 producer, considerably more
than USA today — # 1 priority for China is growth of economy — global warming is not considered important — China CO2 efficiency (GDP per ton CO2) is around one - fourth of USA today, has much room for improvement — China growth will make per capita CO2 emissions at same level as USA today by year 2040 — if it is «not profitable» it is «not sustainable» — US energy
future depends on shale gas for automobiles; hydrogen will not be a factor — nor will electric cars, due to high cost — Muller is upbeat on nuclear (this was recorded pre-Fukushima)-- there has been no warming in the USA — Muller was not convinced of Hansen's GISS temperature record; hopes BEST will provide a better record.