However, what if the answer to «what is the best
prediction method» lies in asking people not only who they will vote for, but also who they think will win (as «
citizen forecasters» [1]-RRB-, and more importantly, how they feel
about who other people think will win?
Without making a
prediction about whether such a hypothetical statute could pass strict scrutiny, I'll go as far as I can and strongly guess that the government could not prohibit
citizen re-entry to the United States based solely on their declared religion.