Insight into past ice - sheet behaviour also will aid
predictions of future ice - sheet stability.
I also believe that
the prediction of future ice states in the Arctic is not possible in any meaningful sense.
Not exact matches
This gives confidence in the
predictions of the current generation
of ice - sheet models which are used to forecast
future ice loss from Antarctica and resulting sea - level rise.»
The next step is to use estimates
of future sea
ice loss to make
predictions of how further melting could influence summer rainfall in Europe in the years to come.
The paleoclimate data, which included mainly changes in the oxygen isotopes
of the calcium carbonate deposits, were then compared to similar records from other caves,
ice cores, and sediment records as well as model
predictions for water availability in the Middle East and west central Asia today and into the
future.
Kuhn, from Germany's Alfred Wegener Institute, added, «This gives confidence in the
predictions of the current generation
of ice sheet models which are used to forecast
future ice loss from Antarctica and resulting sea - level rise.»
In no models or
predictions of future warming scenarios does the Antarctic
ice mass melt to any significant extent.
In no models or
predictions of future warming scenarios does the Antarctic
ice mass melt to any significant extent.
Does this mean that the
predictions of Antarctic
ice melting derive from
future projections
of global temperature increase, and not from existing
ice data?
Canadian
Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter arctic ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination
of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end -
of - winter arctic
ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination
of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic
Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Ice Extent time series into the
future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR)
prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea
ice predicto
ice predictors.
I suspect that it looked OK in your view or you didn't check; «the paper i cited talks
of the hiatus in global temperatures for the past 20 years or so, that the Little
Ice Age was global in extent, and that climate models can not account for the observations we already have let alone make adequate
predictions about what will happen in the
future.
Canadian
Ice Service, 4.7 (+ / - 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Ice Service, 4.7 (+ / - 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination
of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end -
of - winter Arctic
ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea
ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
ice extent timeseries into the
future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR)
prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea
ice predicto
ice predictors.
There are many who will not like this recent paper published in Nature Communications on principle as it talks
of the hiatus in global temperatures for the past 20 years or so, that the Little
Ice Age was global in extent, and that climate models can not account for the observations we already have let alone make adequate
predictions about what will happen in the
future.
Studies
of this kind, which explore the
ice sheet's past behavior, are critical to developing better
predictions of how it will evolve in the
future, Csatho says.
Scientists are interested in how the shape
of this hidden terrain affects how
ice moves — a key factor in making
predictions about the
future of...
Since current
ice melt data could indicate variable climate trends and aren't necessarily part
of an accelerating trend, the study warned that
predictions of future sea - level rise should not be based on measurements
of glacial loss» Daily Mail.
Yet some kind
of climate model is indispensable to make
future predictions of the climate system and IPCC has identified several reasons for respect in the climate models including the fact that models are getting better in predicting what monitoring evidence is actually observing around the world in regard to temperature,
ice and snow cover, droughts and floods, and sea level rise among other things.
This has several implications for
predictions of future sea
ice decline.
If they do so by simulating near - average conditions most
of the time, they are getting the right answer for the wrong reason, and their
predictions of future sea
ice decline should be discounted.
Canadian
Ice Service; 5.0; Statistical As with Canadian Ice Service (CIS) contributions in June 2009 and June 2010, the 2011 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic Multi-Year Ice (MYI) extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice predicto
Ice Service; 5.0; Statistical As with Canadian
Ice Service (CIS) contributions in June 2009 and June 2010, the 2011 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic Multi-Year Ice (MYI) extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice predicto
Ice Service (CIS) contributions in June 2009 and June 2010, the 2011 forecast was derived using a combination
of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end -
of - winter Arctic Multi-Year
Ice (MYI) extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice predicto
Ice (MYI) extents, as well as an examination
of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic
Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice predicto
Ice Extent time series into the
future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR)
prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere, and sea
ice predicto
ice predictors.
However, initialized
prediction ensembles using CESM can skillfully predict low - frequency modulations in the decadal trends
of Arctic sea
ice, and the significant skill scores for Atlantic sector sea
ice extent, in particular, suggest that CESM DP
future forecasts merit serious consideration.
These new sea
ice proxy records are needed (1) to fully prove the scenarios
of a succession from an extended
ice shelf to polynya / open - water conditions (cf., Fig. 6), (2) to reconstruct in more detail the changes in sea
ice cover for early, middle and late LIG intervals characterized by very different external forcings and related internal feedback mechanisms, and (3) to allow a more fundamental proxy data / modeling comparison that results in model improvements and better reproduction
of the LIG climatic evolution and
prediction of future climatic scenarios20, 21,22,23, 64.
Canadian
Ice Service, 4.7 (± 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Ice Service, 4.7 (± 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination
of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end -
of - winter Arctic
ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea
ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
ice extent timeseries into the
future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR)
prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea
ice predicto
ice predictors.
As with previous CIS contributions, the 2016 forecast was derived by considering a combination
of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end -
of - winter Arctic
ice thickness / extent, as well as winter surface air temperature, spring
ice conditions and the summer temperature forecast; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea
ice extent time - series into the
future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR)
prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea
ice predictors.
The Mercer (1978) ``... a threat
of disaster» paper introduced above was fraught with presumptions, guesswork, and spectacularly wrong
predictions about the connections between fossil fuel consumption by humans and
future carbon dioxide (CO2) parts per million (ppm) concentrations, the melting
of polar
ice sheets, and an impeding sea level rise disaster.
It regurgitates NSIDC graphs, complete with lines
of best fit that reveal the underlying downward trend towards inevitable oblivion, without wondering why scientific
predictions from the NSIDC and elsewhere about the
future of Arctic
ice are spread across a whole continent
of ball parks each the size
of Wales.
I think the projections for decades into the
future will prove as sound as Malthus» projections, the great whale oil crisis
of the mid-19th century, the terrible horse manure health crisis projected for cities in the early 20th century, Paul Ehrlich's
predictions of doom, and the disappearance
of snow and
ice in the world that plagues us in 2015.
The first is that the doomsday scenario for polar bears comes, not from real - world observation but from computer - modeled
predictions of what might happen in the
future if the
ice caps melt, etc..
That paper, which was not peer - reviewed, argued that because polar bear numbers have remained relatively stable despite faster - than - expected sea
ice loss over the past decade, scientists»
predictions of future population declines are flawed.
Predictions of future sea - level rise and reduction in volume
of ice sheets are consistent with what the evidence indicates during the Last Interglacial.
Dr. Alley teaches, and conducts research on the climatic records, flow behavior, and sedimentary deposits
of large
ice sheets, to aid in
prediction of future changes in climate and sea level.
13) The inability
of climate models to adequately reproduce the recent states and trends
of Arctic sea
ice diminishes confidence in their accuracy for making
future climate
predictions.
Information about the melting
of Arctic
ice can be overwhelming, especially when trying to grasp everything from how it is measured to the impacts
of ice - free summers in the Arctic to
predictions about
future ice melts.
Retrospective analysis and
future prediction of the arctic sea
ice system (Jinlun Zhang, D. Andrew Rothrock, and Michael Steele; Applied Physics Laboratory) http://psc.apl.washington.edu/zhang/IDAO/index.html
However, new research incorporating additional information, such as the fraction
of ice covered by melt ponds in the spring, shows promise for improved
future predictions (Schroder et al. 2014).
Indeed, working with
predictions for
future temperature increases and glacier melt rates generated by ten separate global climate models — all
of which are also used by the Intergovernmental Panel
of Climate Change - the team have concluded that these smaller
ice sources will contribute around 12 centimetres to world sea - level increases over the remainder
of the century, with this likely to have catastrophic consequences for numerous natural habitats as well as for hundreds
of thousands
of people.
It's a finding that should be reflected in current climate models to help scientists make more accurate
predictions about
future Greenland melt — and could become even more important in the coming years if cloud cover over the
ice sheet were to increase as a result
of climate change.