Sentences with phrase «predictions of future sea»

Predictions of future sea - level rise and reduction in volume of ice sheets are consistent with what the evidence indicates during the Last Interglacial.

In an upcoming post, we shall look at predictions of future sea level rise.

If they do so by simulating near - average conditions most of the time, they are getting the right answer for the wrong reason, and their predictions of future sea ice decline should be discounted.

This has several implications for predictions of future sea ice decline.

Since current ice melt data could indicate variable climate trends and aren't necessarily part of an accelerating trend, the study warned that predictions of future sea - level rise should not be based on measurements of glacial loss» Daily Mail.

Not exact matches

This gives confidence in the predictions of the current generation of ice - sheet models which are used to forecast future ice loss from Antarctica and resulting sea - level rise.»

The next step is to use estimates of future sea ice loss to make predictions of how further melting could influence summer rainfall in Europe in the years to come.

Woodworth couldn't find any evidence to support the proposed sea level fall posited by Mörner and concludes that the IPCC's prediction remains the most reliable scenario for to the future of the Maldives.

At the same time policymakers need to know the future of sea - level rise, and they need as robust a prediction as we can give,» said Michael Oppenheimer, Princeton's Albert G. Milbank Professor of Geosciences and International Affairs and the Princeton Environmental Institute and first author of the paper.

Kuhn, from Germany's Alfred Wegener Institute, added, «This gives confidence in the predictions of the current generation of ice sheet models which are used to forecast future ice loss from Antarctica and resulting sea - level rise.»

Oppenheimer and his co-authors use a technique known as «structured expert judgment» to put an actual value on the uncertainty that scientists studying climate change have about a particular model's prediction of future events such as sea - level rise.

Frightening thought — if and only if the AGW centric prediction of future climate is either not completely correct, or out right wrong, consider extreme scenarios which would result in a drastically (and painfully) different outcome than the prophecied sea level rise / climatic tropical expansion / northerly movement of species model.

pg xiii This Policymakers Summary aims to bring out those elements of the main report which have the greatest relevance to policy formulation, in answering the following questions • What factors determine global climate 7 • What are the greenhouse gases, and how and why are they increasing 9 • Which gases are the most important 9 • How much do we expect the climate to change 9 • How much confidence do we have in our predictions 9 • Will the climate of the future be very different 9 • Have human activities already begun to change global climate 9 How much will sea level rise 9 • What will be the effects on ecosystems 9 • What should be done to reduce uncertainties, and how long will this take 9 This report is intended to respond to the practical needs of the policymaker.

Canadian Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter arctic ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictoSea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictosea ice predictors.

Canadian Ice Service, 4.7 (+ / - 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictoSea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictosea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictosea ice predictors.

Levine, R.C., Turner, A.G., Marathayil, D. and Martin, G.M. (accepted Dec 2012), The role of northern Arabian Sea surface temperature biases in CMIP5 model simulations and future predictions of Indian summer monsoon rainfall, in press, Climate Dynamics., DOI 10.1007 / s00382 -012-1656-x link

Regarding (3), I've never actually encountered a CAGW movement supporter who actually seemed personally scared of the climate predictions, like personally moving away from the coast specifically because of believed future sea level rise or moving further north for that reason.

Yet some kind of climate model is indispensable to make future predictions of the climate system and IPCC has identified several reasons for respect in the climate models including the fact that models are getting better in predicting what monitoring evidence is actually observing around the world in regard to temperature, ice and snow cover, droughts and floods, and sea level rise among other things.

Canadian Ice Service; 5.0; Statistical As with Canadian Ice Service (CIS) contributions in June 2009 and June 2010, the 2011 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic Multi-Year Ice (MYI) extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice predictoSea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice predictosea ice predictors.

However, initialized prediction ensembles using CESM can skillfully predict low - frequency modulations in the decadal trends of Arctic sea ice, and the significant skill scores for Atlantic sector sea ice extent, in particular, suggest that CESM DP future forecasts merit serious consideration.

These new sea ice proxy records are needed (1) to fully prove the scenarios of a succession from an extended ice shelf to polynya / open - water conditions (cf., Fig. 6), (2) to reconstruct in more detail the changes in sea ice cover for early, middle and late LIG intervals characterized by very different external forcings and related internal feedback mechanisms, and (3) to allow a more fundamental proxy data / modeling comparison that results in model improvements and better reproduction of the LIG climatic evolution and prediction of future climatic scenarios20, 21,22,23, 64.

Canadian Ice Service, 4.7 (± 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictoSea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictosea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictosea ice predictors.

All such projections involve assumptions about the future that can not be tested, so the authors spread their bets: they considered a range of scenarios involving crude population growth, levels of economic growth with time, and a series of predictions of sea level rise, as icecaps and glaciers melt, and as the oceans warm and expand according to predictable physical laws.

As with previous CIS contributions, the 2016 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness / extent, as well as winter surface air temperature, spring ice conditions and the summer temperature forecast; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent time - series into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictors.

The Mercer (1978) ``... a threat of disaster» paper introduced above was fraught with presumptions, guesswork, and spectacularly wrong predictions about the connections between fossil fuel consumption by humans and future carbon dioxide (CO2) parts per million (ppm) concentrations, the melting of polar ice sheets, and an impeding sea level rise disaster.

That paper, which was not peer - reviewed, argued that because polar bear numbers have remained relatively stable despite faster - than - expected sea ice loss over the past decade, scientists» predictions of future population declines are flawed.

Dr. Alley teaches, and conducts research on the climatic records, flow behavior, and sedimentary deposits of large ice sheets, to aid in prediction of future changes in climate and sea level.

Specifically, key parameters of the Human System, such as fertility, health, migration, economic inequality, unemployment, GDP per capita, resource use per capita, and emissions per capita, must depend on the dynamic variables of the Human — Earth coupled system.26 Not including these feedbacks would be like trying to make El Niño predictions using dynamic atmospheric models but with sea surface temperatures as an external input based on future projections independently produced (e.g., by the UN) without feedbacks.

13) The inability of climate models to adequately reproduce the recent states and trends of Arctic sea ice diminishes confidence in their accuracy for making future climate predictions.

Why Seas Are Rising Ahead of Predictions: Estimates of Rate of Future Sea - Level Rise May Be Too Low http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/11/121101153549.htm

Retrospective analysis and future prediction of the arctic sea ice system (Jinlun Zhang, D. Andrew Rothrock, and Michael Steele; Applied Physics Laboratory) http://psc.apl.washington.edu/zhang/IDAO/index.html

Indeed, working with predictions for future temperature increases and glacier melt rates generated by ten separate global climate models — all of which are also used by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change - the team have concluded that these smaller ice sources will contribute around 12 centimetres to world sea - level increases over the remainder of the century, with this likely to have catastrophic consequences for numerous natural habitats as well as for hundreds of thousands of people.