Lastly,
predictions of a warming Arctic combined with relatively stable tropics should result in fewer intense storms of this nature.
The predictions of warming over the century seem to rely on a significant multiplier (positive feedback) of the direct warming due to the added CO2.
It also means that
all predictions of warming based on the greenhouse effect are false.
«The climate models making dire
predictions of warming in the 21st century are the same models that predicted too much warming in the early 21st century, and can't explain the warming from 1910 - 1945 or the mid-century grand hiatus,» Dr. Judith Curry writes in a Wednesday op - ed published in The Financial Post.
Observations so far have confirmed
the predictions of warming being made some 30 years ago.
Global temperatures are now trending at or below the lowest, least dire
predictions of warming.
And that is where all those dangerous
predictions of warming come from.
«
Predictions of warming - induced war more likely to result in higher military $ $ $ than lower fossil - fuel emissions» [link]
And with
it all predictions of warming based on the greenhouse effect are proven to be completely wrong.
By Penny Starr In a June 20 interview with Spiegel Online, German climate scientist Hans von Storch said that despite
predictions of a warming planet the temperature data for the past 15 years shows an increase of 0.06 or «very close to zero.»
First,
all predictions of warming that use the greenhouse effect are invalid.
The «so called science» has so far proven remarkably accurate in
its predictions of a warming planet, increasing heat waves, fires, melting ice caps, loss of sea ice, species migration and variable rainfall.
Nature Climate Science reports that the IPCC's
predictions of warming from 1993 - 2012 and 1998 - 2012 were over-estimated by factors of more than two times and four times, respectively.
Every time there is a snowstorm somewhere, somebody writes in asserting that this disproves
predictions of a warming climate.
Meanwhile Stefan and Boltzmann discovered the sigma - T ** 4 law, and then Arrhenius put it together into the first
predictions of warming.
If meteorologists»
predictions of a warmer - than - normal winter are correct, a stockpile glut to the five - year average will persist into next year.
«These creatures are already living at their physiological limits, so a two - degree change — a conservative
prediction of the warming expected over the next 80 years or so — can make a big difference,» said Kordas.
For 15 years
the prediction of warming resulting from a doubling of CO2 has varied by 300 % from 1.5 to 4.5 K. For 15 years the climate modellers have been claiming it will take them 15 years to get the clouds and aerosols right.
He said Hansen had been way off on his key 1988
prediction of warming over the next 10 years.
The left hand picture is the climate model
prediction of warming in the mid troposphere due to greenhouse gases from 1958 to 1999.
1) Theoretical understanding led to
the prediction of the warming before anything of it was observable.
Inhofe wasn't mindlessly saying a brief cold spell meant the collective whole of global warming was a hoax, he was lampooning the United Nations» Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and
their predictions of warmer snowless winters (full text here).
The «unpredicted» appellation is important because of
the prediction of warming in that period of time.
With the ten - year life of the bet due to end at the end of this year, the cumulative monthly error in the IPCC's business - as - usual 0.3 ºC per decade prediction is 22 percent larger than the error from the benchmark
prediction of no warming at all.
Not exact matches
... A number
of scientific studies indicate that most global
warming in recent decades is due to the great concentration
of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxides and others) released mainly as a result
of human activity... Doomsday
predictions can no longer be met with irony or disdain.
Of course, climate
predictions will also guide adaptation to a
warmer globe, and even potentially provide early warnings for natural disasters.
By improving the understanding
of how much radiation CO2 absorbs, uncertainties in modelling climate change will be reduced and more accurate
predictions can be made about how much Earth is likely to
warm over the next few decades.
Some climate change deniers have taken encouragement from the pause, saying they show
warming predictions are flawed, but Mann, a co-author on the study, notes that «there have been various explanations for why [the slowdown is happening], none
of which involve climate models being fundamentally wrong.»
Carbin,
of the Storm
Prediction Center, said a
warmer climate might play a role.
Even in the moderate
warming scenario, there are
predictions of big changes in the delta habitat as this century unfolds.»
He does point out that
predictions of the impact
of global
warming made back in the 1970s named the Wordie and James Ross shelves as the first to go.
The statement is more pessimistic than other estimates
of how
warming could affect African agriculture, including
predictions in the British Stern Review.
If carbon dioxide in the atmosphere doubled from its pre-industrial level, the graph suggested, global
warming would rise far above the widely accepted
prediction of between 1.5 and 4.5 °C.
Predictions that a major El Niño
warming event — and the coming solar maximum — would help make next year the
warmest on record now seem wide
of the mark.
People who claim we can stop worrying about global
warming on the basis
of a cooler year or a cooler decade — or just on questionable
predictions of cooling — are as naive as a child mistaking a falling tide, or a spring low tide, for a real long - term fall in sea level.
«The overall
predictions for the future
of the area is
of a more maritime climate, particularly
warmer temperatures and increased precipitation during winter,» Høye says.
October 26, 2007,
Prediction of Global
Warming High May Be Impossible, by Karen Hopkins.
El Niño, a periodic
warming in the waters
of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, will probably emerge in the coming months, according to a forecast issued yesterday by the Climate
Prediction Center (CPC)
of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
«You have scenarios assuming very strong decisions, very quick and sharp reduction
of greenhouse gases, and you have other scenarios with business as usual, where you end up with
predictions of additional
warming of 5, 6 degrees, maybe even more.
Neither
of these
predictions takes into account two massive
warm zones in the mantle, 2800 kilometres beneath Africa and the south Pacific.
The
prediction, based on computer modeling
of published studies, blames
warming of the planet's oceans (ScienceNOW, 22 January, 2001).
As can be seen your graph, our climate models make a wide range
of predictions (perhaps 0.5 - 5 degC, a 10-fold uncertainty) about how much «committed
warming» will occur in the future under any stabilization scenario, so we don't seem to have a decent understanding
of these processes.
This might indicate that smaller (and
warmer) dust grains are responsible for the 100 μm emission than at the longer wavelengths, in agreement with the theoretical
predictions of van Marle et al. (2011).
These
predictions are limited by a poor understanding
of the recent changes observed in the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, and a lack
of knowledge about the variability
of ice sheet behaviour under a
warming climate.
Remember also that (IIRC) one
of the
predictions of climate models is that
warming is likely to result in more extremes
of weather?
By working on the still - not - fully - cracked nut
of estimating changes in hurricane frequency and intensity in a
warming climate, Gabe and his colleagues ended up with a modeling system with seasonal skill in regional hurricane
prediction.
In no models or
predictions of future
warming scenarios does the Antarctic ice mass melt to any significant extent.
After a general trashing
of various things including surface observations and climate models, he admitted that his
prediction for the globally - averaged
warming (
of ~ 1.5 C by 2100) is within the IPCC range... albeit at the low end.
In fact, this is a good example
of climate models making a
prediction (
warmer nights), and then having the
prediction born out by the data.
I find it confusing that the NWS Climate
Prediction Center issues «climate» outlooks which have nothing to do with the subject
of climate change or global
warming.