What they found was that, with that weighting,
the predictions ran hotter than those using the entire ensemble without such a technique.
Not exact matches
Match
Predictions: Liverpool need to win this game to keep themselves in
running for the European places but their form has been unpredictable under Klopp as they can blow
hot and cold on any day.
Utterly wrong: the computer climate models on which
predictions of rapid warming from enhanced atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration cowdungare based «
run hot,» simulating two to three times the warming actually observed over relevant periods
First, the computer climate models on which
predictions of rapid warming from enhanced atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration are based «
run hot,» simulating two to three times the warming actually observed over relevant periods — during which non-anthropogenic causes probably accounted for some and could have accounted for all the observed warming — and therefore provide no rational basis for predicting future GAT.
Intuitively, the models seem to be
running hot because (a) their climate response rate to doubling of CO2 is too high and (b) they do not adequately allow for negative feedbacks from clouds, among other influences which must remain beyond the realm of
prediction due to their chaotic nature.
Overall we are closely tracking Scenario B, with Hansen's temperature
predictions, based on a climate sensitivity of 4C,
running slightly
hot.
What your article confirms for me is that the average of a bunch of model outputs (a questionable procedure in the first place) is dependent for alarming content on the existence of high - end
predictions from the likes of the Canadian simulator in British Columbia which is the second
hottest -
running of all models.
So not only do the models
run hotter than observations, most of them are accelerating their
predictions.
They are
running too
hot an after 22 years since 1990 actual global average temperature fell below the lowest model
prediction.