Sentences with phrase «present model projections»

We examine historical trends in total annual streamflow; discuss what climate factors most influence these patterns; and present model projections for the future.

We show historical trends in snowmelt and runoff timing; examine climate factors that most influence these patterns; and present model projections for stream runoff in the future.

Not exact matches

Richard Betts, head of climate impacts at the Hadley Centre of the U.K.'s Met office presented to reporters in Copenhagen today a new analysis of modeling data showing how conserving tropical forests is going to be crucial if the world is to make a target of 2 ˚C, even under the most conservative projections of how much carbon the forests contain.

Climate model projections neglecting these changes would continue to overestimate the radiative forcing and global warming in coming decades if these aerosols remain present at current values or increase.

«Long - term projections of the type presented here are always crude caricatures but I like this study because it does take a more mechanistic approach based on the known habitat requirements of the species rather than using a more traditional and simplistic thermal envelope model,» he said.

Of the many inane arguments that are made against taking action on climate change, perhaps the most fatuous is that the projections climate models offer about the future are too uncertain to justify taking steps that might inconvenience us in the present.

Themes: Aerosols, Arctic and Antarctic climate, Atmospheric Science, Climate modelling, Climate sensitivity, Extreme events, Global warming, Greenhouse gases, Mitigation of Climate Change, Present - day observations, Oceans, Paleo - climate, Responses to common contrarian arguments, The Practice of Science, Solar forcing, Projections of future climate, Climate in the media, Meeting Reports, Miscellaneous.

For the projections in the Water chapter, we present results from as many as 31 climate models that are linked to a water - cycle model.

Ultimately of course the climate models are essential to provide much more refined projections of climate change than would be available from the global mean quantities that result from an analysis of the present sort.

The Annual Energy Outlook presents a projection and analysis of U.S. energy supply, demand, and prices through 2030, based on results from the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System.

Antony presented a concert in parallel with my projections of a series of live video portraits of New York models.

We have many studies presenting the projections from GCMs under various forcing scenarios where unforced variability is simulated, and we have a few studies (not many I think) which have a model reproduce the * actual * forcings and unforced variability and see how well the output matches observations (a recent one by Yu Kosaka and Shang - Ping Xie being a case in point).

The above studies show promise that quantitative metrics for the likelihood of model projections may be developed, but because the development of robust metrics is still at an early stage, the model evaluations presented in this chapter are based primarily on experience and physical reasoning, as has been the norm in the past.

Of the many inane arguments that are made against taking action on climate change, perhaps the most fatuous is that the projections climate models offer about the future are too uncertain to justify taking steps that might inconvenience us in the present.

Figure 2B shows present diversity projections of 2068 species from the MLGLM generalized linear model.

The present very high uncertainty and poor performance relative to «projections» with global climate modeling would be an absolute nonstarter for commercial gas turbine modeling.

Better characterization of the physical processes (including feedbacks) in the present coupled - global land surface climate models will certainly prove beneficial in stipulating future - projection scenarios and outcome.

To establish credibility for climate model projections, past projections must be presented along with new projections.

To present regional multi-decadal climate projections to the impact communities as part of their driving forces and boundary conditions (for their models and process studies), when there is NO skill on this time scale at predicting changes in climate statistics, is a serious misleading application of the scientific method.

The burden, of course, is for authors that present hindcast multi-decadal climate projections, to provide quantitative documentation of the ability of their model to predict changes in the climate metrics that are requested by the impact and policy communities.

Model projections of the IPCC SRES scenarios give a global mean sea - level rise of 0.09 to 0.88 m by 2100, with sea level rising at rates circa 2 to 4 times faster than those of the present day (EEA, 2004b; Meehl et al., 2007).

The observation that recent temperature trends are barely consistent with the present models, does cast doubt on the projections these model produce.

«Sea - ice cover timing in the Pacific Arctic: the present and projections to mid-century by selected CMIP5 models» Deep Sea Research II (accepted).

But what with evidence somewhat lacking on positive CO2 feed backs, the present temperature plateau continuing, model projections of warming way out with observation, the analogy appears a bit, well, Ehrlichean, seems to me.And then there's the bleeding of economies by costs of CO2 reduction measures and subsidizing ineffectual, (evidence indicates even un-environmental) renewable energy policies, no gain for lotsa» pain.

A follow - up study will assess the impacts of climate change on explosive cyclones, and evaluate how model biases presented in this study affect the projections.

of the present climate to constrain model projections of ECS.

If these results continue to be supported, then future projections of temperature change, as depicted in the present suite of climate models, are likely too high.

Therefore, we can use the covariation of TLC reflection with temperature obtained from observations of the present climate to constrain model projections of ECS.

And beyond the post-facto model evaluation, it will be interesting to see whether new climate models will take advantage of emergent constraints to improve their simulation of present - day climate and to reduce uncertainties in future projections.

Although there is at present no means by which to tell whether this particular storm was due to human induced global warming, the devastation it has caused is consistent with the projections generated by climate change models that suggest such storms will become more severe as the world warms up.

We are beginning to sound like a broken record here, but again, it is impossible to present reliable future projections for precipitations changes across the U.S. (seasonal or annual) from a collection of climate models which largely can not even get the sign (much less the magnitude) of the observed changes correct.

Dana Nuccitelli presented a talk on climate model accuracy — comparing past global temperature projections to observations, and effectively debunking associated myths.

In IPCC projections with ocean - atmosphere general circulation models (OAGCMs)(12), half of the models become ice - free in September during this century (19), at a polar temperature of − 9 °C (9 °C above present)(20).

The projections presented in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what may happen given the assumptions in the underlying National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).

It is evident that my proposed model agrees with the data much better than the IPCC projections, as also other tests present in the paper show.

The type of analysis presented here can not show that the projections by reliable model ensembles will continue to form a reliable prediction into the future, but the results are at least encouraging in that they reveal no strong evidence of unreliability or other major biases or limitations in the CMIP3 ensemble, contrary to analyses based on the paradigm of a truth - centred ensemble.

Ultimately of course the climate models are essential to provide much more refined projections of climate change than would be available from the global mean quantities that result from an analysis of the present sort.

Even if the fingerprint were present, computer models are long proven to be inherently incapable of providing projections of the future state of the climate that are sound enough for policymaking.

The climate projections presented in the IPCC AR4 are from the latest set of coordinated GCM simulations, archived at the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI).

Model - model intercomparisons are all well and good, but these projections are routinely presented as realistic forecasts of the Earth's future climate, and I'm sure we'd all agree that it is the model - reality comparison that really matModel - model intercomparisons are all well and good, but these projections are routinely presented as realistic forecasts of the Earth's future climate, and I'm sure we'd all agree that it is the model - reality comparison that really matmodel intercomparisons are all well and good, but these projections are routinely presented as realistic forecasts of the Earth's future climate, and I'm sure we'd all agree that it is the model - reality comparison that really matmodel - reality comparison that really matters!

Although the science of regional climate projections has progressed significantly since last IPCC report, slight displacement in circulation characteristics, systematic errors in energy / moisture transport, coarse representation of ocean currents / processes, crude parameterisation of sub-grid - and land surface processes, and overly simplified topography used in present - day climate models, make accurate and detailed analysis difficult.