Depicting life in a not - too - distant future shaped by already
present warming trends, the report warns that even 20 to 30 years from now, shifting rain patterns could leave some areas under water and others without enough water for drinking, irrigation or power generation.
Just prior to the 2009 COP15 climate summit in Copenhagen, then UK prime minister Gordon Brown told the world: «We should never allow ourselves to lose sight of the catastrophe we face if
present warming trends continue.
The number of governments, private corporations, organizations, scientists and technologies concerned with meeting the challenge of climate change and global warming have increased beyond expectations in the past decade and continues to create an army of «green fighters,» like Green Peace, but the impact on large numbers of people have not reached a critical mass to reverse
the present warming trends.
We can, therefore, compare
the present warming trends (and warming / cooling cycles; think about the «mini-ice age» of the 19th Century) with the geological record and make statistical extrapolations about changing rates and develop hypotheses about causes (whichh, basically, is what current climate scientists have been doing).
«Nobody knows how much of
the present warming trend might be a natural phenomenon».
But then you didn't read the graphs the same for
the present warming trend, you cherry picked a starting point that wasn't the lowest.
Satellite records, the best available information we have, show
the present warming trend — half a degree Celsius by century — is well within the range shown for the last few hundred years.â $ ™
As
the present warming trend is expected to continue, global mean sea level will continue to rise.
The work calculated
the present warming trend correctly through 2007 and projected 2008, 2009, 2010, and appears to project 2011 correctly as well.
Dennis «A&L» Dutton, who is sceptical about the idea that
the present warming trend is mostly anthropogenic, has got together with Douglas Campbell, a philosopher / biologist / computer scientist who isn't.
Transmission began to decline only in the 19th century, when
the present warming trend was well under way.»
Not exact matches
Flash forward to the
present day and spring weather outlooks are pointing towards fairly consistent
warming trends and an even bud break.
At least half of current vegetated areas are predicted to shift to a different type of vegetation class, with a general
trend of now -
present grasses and small shrubs yielding to larger shrubs and trees as the climate
warms, the scientists said.
In fact, the CRF curves
presented by some of the key cosmic - ray hypothesis proponents, Marsh & Svensmark, do not exhibit any
trend, yet it has been claimed that CRF is responsible for the most recent
warming (Marsh & Svensmark say that the wiggles correlate, but don't discuss the [or lack of] observed
trends).
But clear
warming trends are
present in the early and late 20th century.
Projecting the 165 - year instrumental
trends suggests within 500 years temperatures will reach 2.5 to 3.5 degrees C
warmer than
present day.
a)
present day
warming trends and interglacial plateau
trends.
They observed a Holocene cooling
trend in the Antarctic of -0.26 to -0.40 degrees C / millennium for the past 1900 years prior to
present day
warming of the most recent 200 years.
In fact, the arctic
trend from 1975 to the
present is also demonstrably nonlinear, and a linear
trend again underestimates the
warming.
The thing that looks fishy is that the adjustments all tend to make past colder,
present warmer and increase the
trend.
What does happen in a giben month, year and sometimes decades is faster or slower
warming for the given time period, but this does not reverse the
warming trend or do anything to refute the dangers to health that GHG's
present with.
You would be speaking of from the
trend in temperature anomaly (
warming) from 1979 to
present being greater than either of the two shorter
trends from 1979 to 1998 and from 1998 to
present — if I understand you correctly.
As Manny is very aware, 1998 is the current record
warmest year and a simple
trend plotted from it to the
present will always show a cooling
trend... until the next record year.
The real question is whether topographical readings of the area were taken sometime in the 1940s to 1960s, when there was a sustained
warming trend in the region comparable to the
present.
This hiatus could persist for much of the
present decade if the trade wind
trends continue, however rapid
warming is expected to resume once the anomalous wind
trends abate.
3) In order to assert human causation, I would think the data would have to show that, for example, Rocky Mountain National Park had continued unabated to the
present day the cooling
trend established from approximately 1750 through 1850, while the Houston Ship Channel area exhibited the
warming trend since the onset of industrial activity.
A valuable short paper that has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters (subscription required) makes a strong case against
presenting any argument about human - driven global
warming that's based on short - term
trends (a decade or so).
I think you're asking whether there might be some kind of «time structures» (types of cycles, etc)
present in addition to that of a global -
warming trend.
http://humbabe.arc.nasa.gov/~fenton/ Note that this global
warming as been studied by only one research team and
presented in one article (to be compared to the thousands of articles studying climate
trends on earth), based on partial satellite data, and there is a serious debate now amongst the planetologists community to determine if this is a persistent
trend or if it will stop in a few years.
But despite the fact that August 1997 was shamelessly cherry - picked by David Rose because it gives the lowest
warming trend to the
present of any point before 2000, we can still see what would happen if we imposed the constraint that any fit needs to be continuous:
If, for example, we were to create a piece-wise continuous
trend keeping your own
trend, we'd find the 0.17 C decadal
warming trend from your starting point preceded by an estimated
warming of equal magnitude in the combined 125 prior years (beginning at a time where only 1/4 of the
present day coverage existed, thus placing the entire 125 year
warming more or less within the margin of statistical insignificance).
-- tendency of the * planet to
warm — The UAH data is v5.4, v5.5 limits the recent deviance — «no hidden either
warming or cooling jumps» reads awkwardly — «But despite the fact that August 1997 was shamelessly cherry - picked by David Rose because it gives the lowest
warming trend to the
present of any point before 2000» — It was picked to show 15 years, not the lowest
trend.
EVERY revision of NASA data has had the effect of producing greater
warming in the
present and greater cooling of the past (increasing temperature
trends where the raw data have none).
bozzza - The differences in the Arctic are perhaps 1/4 the ocean thermal mass as global ocean averages, small overall size (the smallest ocean), being almost surrounded by land (which
warms faster), more limited liquid interchanges due to bottlenecking than the Antarctic, and very importantly considerable susceptibility to positive albedo feedbacks; as less summer ice is
present given current
trends, solar energy absorbed by the Arctic ocean goes up very rapidly.
The most statistics can tell us at
present is that there does appear to be a genuine
warming trend in figure A. Whether this
trend is the effect of greenhouse gas emissions or of a natural fluctuation due to some as - yet - undiscovered mechanism can not be determined from an analysis of the global mean temperature alone.
We'll also be
presenting the
warming and cooling rates (the
trends) on a zonal means (latitude average) basis.
Figure 8
presents model - data
trend comparisons for the two
warming periods since 1914 and the
warming hiatus period from 1945 to 1975.
Figure A below, which graphs the global annual average temperature from 1861 to the
present, does indeed seem to show a
warming trend.1 But such data must be interpreted carefully.
By continuing this
trend, we can make a rough guess for how near - future climate may develop if the forces driving global
warming continue at their
present rate.
The linear
trend over all the data is not representative of the
present rate of
warming, nor does it represent the physics at work or indicate what the future will bring.
Since 1880, the year that modern scientific instrumentation became available to monitor temperatures precisely, a clear
warming trend is
present, though there was a leveling off between the 1940s and 1970s.
In part, this reflects the long - term
trend towards global
warming; however, it also reflects exceptional short - term weather conditions
present during this period.
Have students compare the temperatures
trends for the northern hemisphere (below; created by the Japanese Meteorological Society and published by the National Academy of Science in 1977) with the new global
trends presented by NASA's Gavin Schmidt who argues 2014 was the
warmest year on record.
The US CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group was formed to improve understanding of interannual variability and
trends in the tropical cyclone activity from the beginning of the 20th century to the
present and quantify changes in the characteristics of tropical cyclones under a
warming climate.
«At
present, governments» attempts to limit greenhouse - gas emissions through carbon cap - and - trade schemes and to promote renewable and sustainable energy sources are prob ¬ ably too late to arrest the inevitable
trend of global
warming,» the scientists write in a paper published online in the scientific journal, Nature Climate Change, on Monday, 14 October 2012.
BONN, 15 November, 2017 — By approaching 2100, a world set for 3.4 ˚C will, on
present trends, probably be the reality confronting our descendants — slightly less
warm than looked likely a year ago, analysts think.
In terms of explaining this period of
warming, the stadium wave argues: 1910 - 1940 (
warming), 1940 - 1975 (cooling), 1975 - 2001 (
warming), 2002 -
present (cooling)-- against a background secular
warming trend.
Section 3.2.2.7
presents a spatial map of
warming trends since 1979.
It seems to me that between 1980 and 94 there was little
warming, but during the longer
trend of 1980 to the
present there has been a
trend of about 1 C per century.
During the
present Holocene man has already survived at least three periods of
warming which by all indicators were
warmer than
present day
trends.