It seems to me that this question might be testable by looking at whether deserts moved north in
previous warm eras.
The previous warm event was the Medieval Warm Period approximately 1,000 years ago.
The null hypothesis is that whatever caused
previous warm spells is operating now.
Also, his SST data (see our Fig. 2 above) go back to 1930, thus covering the whole
previous warm phase of the AMO.
During
the previous warm period between ice ages, there was no ice at the North Pole and the ocean was 15 ft. (5 m) higher.
Nothing on
previous warm periods in the Arctic.
The layers from
the previous warm period were down near bedrock, distorted by ice flow, and here the two groups» cores gave divergent results.
More importantly,
the previous warm periods can not be due to human CO2 as the IPCC claims for current temperatures.
They suggest that during
previous warm periods — one about 120,000 years ago and another about 10,000 years ago — the Middle East saw severe drought, with rainfall decreasing to at least half of what it typically is today, and at its worst drying up by 80 percent, Columbia University explained in a statement.
In a warming world this is a nonsense scenario, history shows us that
previous warm periods were warmer than today and civilisations flourished during those times and suffered during colder times.
The fact that this ice didn't melt during
previous warm periods does not, by itself, provide evidence that it is warmer now than at any time in the past 44,000 years, which is the implication of your comment.
Looking back to the smoothed peak of
the previous warm period 60 or so years ago... we've only had about.4 C of warming.
Ocean air sheltered stations (OAS) in Europe (and perhaps the whole world) show little or no warming since
the previous warm period in approx. 1930 - 1960.
* As there is more snow / ice to melt than in previous cold periods presumably even a rise to the levels of
previous warm periods will cause more melting than in previous eras.
Current global temperatures are 5 °F cooler than
these previous warm periods.
Extreme measures taken to keep the monster alive included adjusting the record to eliminate
previous warm periods and lowering the historic instrumental record to increase the slope of the curve to create or accentuate warming.
of what might happen to the Antarctic ice sheets, and you could look at coral - reef records of sea level during
previous warm epochs.
But I know that history shows
previous warm periods and I wouldn't be surprised to see a recovery in the next few years.
The continued reduction of warm water inflows and the dramatic reduction of lost ice mass in 2014, now suggest the glaciers are no longer adjusting to
the previous warm water intrusions.
THAT might be the reason for today's climbing CO2 levels — just a echo of
previous warm climate cycling through the oceans.
It does indicate that we are near or over
previous warm periods before circa 1400 AD, nothing new there.
Individual model parameterizations were constrained by paleontological data, and the overall modeled relationship between global temperature and sea level matched well against records from four
previous warm periods: preindustrial, the last interglacial, marine isotope stage 11, and the mid-Pliocene.
According to Prof Curry and others,
the previous warm Pacific cycle and other natural factors, such as a high solar output, accounted for some of the warming seen before 1997 — some say at least half of it.
Joey Comiso, senior research scientist at Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center, said this year's ice retreat was caused by
previous warm years reducing the amount of perennial ice — which is more resistant to melting.
This modern warm period is not yet as warm as the Roman Warm Period and not yet as warm as the Medieval Warm Period, but we are not as warm because man - made CO2 is causing the modern warm period and natural variability caused
the previous warm periods.
He said it's not that simple, explaining that it's the relative ranking of probabilities of last year and
previous warm years that leads to the conclusion that 2014 tops the list.
Those questioning the vulnerability of this species to warming will point to its successful survival through two
previous warm intervals between ice ages as evidence the bear can deal with reduced ice and other big environmental shifts.
Also, I'm not sure I see strong support for this concluding sentence: «Although polar bears have persisted through
previous warm phases, multiple human - mediated stressors (e.g., habitat conversion, persecution, and accumulation of toxic substances in the food chain) could magnify the impact of current climate change, posing a novel and likely profound threat to polar bear survival.»
A previous warm period about 130,00 years ago, is the Eemian — sea level 5 - 9 meters higher than today, and enormous storms, not seen in the Holocene.
«Near the end of
the previous warm period (Late - Eemian) when the sea level was +5 to +9 meters higher than today, persistent long period long wavelength waves 30 meters high battered the Bahamas coastline.
The previous warm event was the Medieval Warm Period approximately 1,000 years ago.
The rest of the stations (70 %) don't or just reach the temperatures of
the previous warm period.
July 2016's temperature was a statistically small 0.1 degrees Celsius warmer than
previous warm Julys in 2015, 2011 and 2009.
Scientists are learning about how
previous warm periods altered sea levels, and what that past may tell us about the future.
The lethargic response to
previous warm weather breaks (and my own recollection of the first day back in the office after a week at the beach) does not instil the greatest confidence that today will see an up and at «em, all guns a-blazing display from the first whistle.
That bests
the previous warmest January - June in 1934 by 1.1 °F — a substantial difference, said Jake Crouch, a climate scientist with NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.
It beat out
the previous warmest March, from 2010, by 0.65 °F (0.36 °C)-- a handy margin.
For the year - to - date, 2015 is 1.53 °F above the 20th century average, and 0.16 °F ahead of 2010, which had
the previous warmest January through July.
That summer (June to August) was the hottest since comparable instrumental records began around 1780 (1.4 °C above
the previous warmest in 1807) and is very likely to have been the hottest since at least 1500.
I realize that Gavin is writing for fellow climate researchers rather than such as I who only have a medical doctorate, but surely there is some language, Gavin, that could more clearly, in plain English, describe what his objections, in the main, are, to those who raise some doubts as to the long - term climate record and what may have caused
previous warmings.
The Western Antarctic Peninsula has been rapidly cooling since 1999 -LRB--0.47 °C per decade), reversing
the previous warming trend and leading to «a shift to surface mass gains of the peripheral glacier» (Oliva et al., 2017).
From #NCEI, #Alaska had the warmest spring of record this year, smashing
the previous warmest set in 1998.
The only way, the last decade could not have been the «warmist ever», is if a cooling trend had set in over the whole decade, that was equal or greater than
the previous warming decades trends.
This is clearly not true, if you look at the Arctic as a whole over the past century, because
the previous warming towards the»30s was faster and higher than the recent one, while CO2 still was low.
The two agencies use slightly different methods, so they have different readings for the difference between 2014 and
the previous warmest year, 2010, with N.O.A.A. putting it at 0.07 degrees Fahrenheit (0.04 degrees Celsius), while NASA got 0.036 degrees (0.02 Celsius)-- which this analysis says is well «within uncertainty of measurement.»
The ice at the GISP2 site in central Greenland was only one ice age thick before they hit rock, (as opposed to Antarctica where the ice is more than 6 cycles 700,000 years thick) indicating that ALL the Central Greenland ice melted during
the previous warming cycle (125,000 years ago).
That summer (JJA) was the warmest since comparable instrumental records began around 1780 (1.4 °C above
the previous warmest in 1807).
What I have always read is that
previous warmings were originally caused by other factors but were amplified over time by CO2 as a feedback mechanism.
or — if they want to claim this current lack of warming is due to natural variability, then
the previous warming could also be due to natural variability — and that hurts them too!
In fact, we looked at the period since 1997 because that's when
the previous warming trend stopped, and our graph ended in August 2012 because that is the last month for which Hadcrut 4 figures were available.