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prices of oil sands players are down by roughly half since the recession and have shown few signs of perking up for the last several years running.
Not exact matches
When the
oil - demand peak came, Shell believed, petroleum
prices might begin a slow slide, dipping too low to cover the costs
of oil -
sands production.
The Panel excluded any discussion
of the environmental impacts
of oil sands development, although they did allow the consideration
of increased
oil prices generated by the pipeline on the taxes and royalties associated with forecast future
oil sands production.
The letter also argues that the chiefs
of some
of the biggest companies involved in Alberta's
oil sands industry have publicly come out in favor
of such stricter carbon
pricing.
And as the Bank
of Canada noted in its policy statement,
prices are higher in part because
of supply disruptions, including the Alberta
oil sands.
The future viability
of oil sands projects depends not just on your view
of world
oil prices — it depends just as much on how these factors evolve, in particular discounts to Canadian heavy products and the Canadian dollar.
First, I want to look at how the changes not just in
oil prices, but also changes in diluent costs, discounts for
oil sands crude relative to light crude and, in particular, the fall
of the Canadian dollar have changed the outlook for new
oil sands projects — for those under construction, and for those currently operating.
In order to understand the impact
of the
oil price crash on
oil sands, you need to look at the implications for each
of these categories.
If you're talking about a new project with no significant investment already deployed, building a new mine if you expect today's
prices to hold in the long term is a tough call — a 50 - year
oil sands project is a lot
of risk for less than a 10 % rate
of return — but even there, you can see the impact
of the lower Canadian dollar and the hedge provided by a royalty regime which lowers rates when
prices are low.
Here, in part one
of three, are my notes on
oil sands project viability in this new, low -
price environment.
In preparation for testimony before the House
of Commons finance committee in Ottawa on March 10, I pulled together some thoughts on three aspects
of the impact
of the
oil -
price crash on
oil sands projects and policies, and I thought I'd share them with you here over this and the next couple
of posts.
Helms also said that
oil sands production levels could dip below one million per day before the end
of 2016, if
prices stay below the $ 50 / bbl.
If you're talking about a new project with no significant investment already deployed, building a new mine if you expect today's
prices to hold in the long term is a tough call — a 50 year
oil sands project is a lot
of risk for less than a 10 per cent rate
of return — but even there, you can see the impact
of the lower Canadian dollar and the hedge provided by a royalty regime which lowers rates when
prices are low.
The extraordinary cost reductions achieved by North American
oil and gas companies have likely reached their limit, and any boost in profitability for much
of the U.S. shale and Canadian
oil sands industries will have to come from higher
oil prices, according to a new report from Moody's Investors Service.
The report does envision scenarios in which
oil sands development is curbed by a combination
of lower
oil prices and a lack
of pipeline capacity.
The difference between Brent and a barrel
of Western Canadian Select, the benchmark
price for
oil sands product, was even more significant, a fact that had caused considerable hand wringing in downtown Calgary as well as on Parliament Hill.
When
prices go up it opens the door to new sources
of supply that were previously too expensive to extract (Alberta's
oil sands are a case in point).
Oil sands players, as well as U.S. producers in North Dakota, have been clamouring for pipeline approvals, claiming that all
of the political foot dragging around pipeline projects weakened
pricing power and critically hampered their operations.
As I wrote in my blog over a year ago, («
Oil Price Spread Costing Canadian producers big bucks,» November 10, 2011), oil sands producers have been continually getting short - changed for their oil by refineries in Cushing, Oklahoma, where most of the product from the oil sands flo
Oil Price Spread Costing Canadian producers big bucks,» November 10, 2011),
oil sands producers have been continually getting short - changed for their oil by refineries in Cushing, Oklahoma, where most of the product from the oil sands flo
oil sands producers have been continually getting short - changed for their
oil by refineries in Cushing, Oklahoma, where most of the product from the oil sands flo
oil by refineries in Cushing, Oklahoma, where most
of the product from the
oil sands flo
oil sands flows.
At the root
of today's problem is global demand that is no longer growing quickly enough to support the
prices necessary to keep expanding expensive unconventional sources
of supply like the
oil sands.
The recent surge in growth in North American non-conventional
oil production, whether it's light
oil from North Dakota or the heavy stuff that comes out
of Alberta's
oil sands, is made possible by high
oil prices, which are in turn linked to world demand remaining robust.
However, it's certainly incorrect to assume that the existence
of single pipeline impacts all
oil sands supply costs, or that not allowing it would render that
oil supply unavailable at any
price.
Let me give you a simple example — suppose the marginal barrel
of oil globally is, in fact, an
oil sands barrel, and so an increase in
oil sands supply (i.e. more barrels available at a lower
price) would increase world
oil production and consumption.
The
price of Canada's
oil sands crude, Western Canadian Select, trades at a discount to WTI.
Earlier this year, for instance, Western Canadian Select, the benchmark
price for bitumen from the
oil sands, traded at nearly half the
price of Brent crude.
Posted by Nick Falvo under Bank
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It remains to be seen, therefore, what sort
of carbon
price signal an individual
oil sands operation would be exposed to under the Alberta Plan and whether it will be sufficient to drive technological innovation in the sector.
Alberta's
oil sands growth has slowed with the decline in the
price of oil and there was stiff environmental opposition in the French - speaking province
of Quebec.
The break - even
price of tar
sands oil is around $ 100 per barrel if transported by rail, according to Anthony Swift, a staff attorney at NRDC (which publishes
If there's a bright spot for the province, however, it's that the ongoing disruption
of Alberta
oil sands production — estimated by the Conference Board
of Canada to be about 1.2 million barrels a day, comprising nearly $ 1 billion in economic activity — has contributed to a rally in global
oil prices that could give producers, and therefore the Alberta economy, a badly - needed lift once production is finally back on - line (assuming,
of course, the fires are eventually extinguished and
oil sands operations escape serious damage).
If the
price of a barrel drops too much, future
oil sand plans are at risk and modular buildings won't be needed at that point.
The Alberta government received the final report from the independent panel led by University
of Alberta economics professor Andrew Leach and announced its plans to phase out coal burning electricity plants, phase in a
price on carbon, introduce a limit on overall emissions from the
oil sands and introduce an energy efficiency strategy.
How else could she argue, as she did in 2016, that Alberta would not support the federal government's pan-Canadian carbon
price of $ 50 per tonne (in the year 2022) unless the federal government first approved an
oil sands pipeline to tidewater, while also arguing that British Columbia's proposed
oil spill safety measures contravene the federal government's clear jurisdiction over interprovincial pipelines?
The EIA in February reported that Canada pumped an average
of 4.5 million barrels a day in 2015, and predicted this would rise to 4.8 million in 2017 as
oil sands projects under construction when
oil prices began to fall in 2014 come on line.
In a world
of falling
prices, however, it will be high cost production from shale formations and the
oil sands, not the low cost conventional crude from places such as Saudi Arabia and Iran that will be hit the hardest.
That can easily happen in a world
of $ 100
oil, because such high
prices offer enough incentive for producers to bring on new supplies from expensive sources such as the Bakken or Alberta's
oil sands.
The
price for a barrel
of bitumen, the tar - like
oil sands that comes from Alberta, fell to just over $ 8 per barrel this week.
However, the fact that the average quantity
of frack
sand used per well has more than doubled in recent years — which has helped lower the breakeven
price of U.S. shale
oil — should help insulate the industry from the worst
of the
oil crash.
The result is what Marc Lee refers to as an «all
of the above» policy — we have carbon
pricing and various climate - related regulation, even while committing to significantly expanded
oil sands production and promising new bitumen pipelines.
Short - to - medium - term cash flow stabilized by attractive and profitable contracts While demand for frack
sand is likely to decline due to the crashing
price of oil, there is cause for optimism that the decline in demand might not be as severe as the overall decline in new
oil drilling.
After my post last night got me reading Budget 1980 and the National Energy Program, I stumbled upon something completely fascinating: the hated National Energy Program proposed an indexed
price for synthetic crude from
oil sands projects which, had it been followed until today, would have been above the Canadian dollar
price of WTI in -LSB-...]
For every barrel
of extra
oil taken from tar
sands as a result
of the pipeline, world
oil consumption would rise by 0.6 barrels, as the added production would lower
prices (Nature Climate Change, doi.org/t52).
Pres. Barack Obama vetoed a bill to approve construction
of the Keystone XL Pipeline on February 24 — not because
of climate change, not because
of low
oil prices and not because
of the risks from leaking diluted bitumen from the tar
sands.
For every barrel
of extra
oil obtained from tar
sands as a result
of the pipeline, global
oil consumption would increase by 0.6 barrels, because the extra
oil would lower
oil prices and encourage people to use more.
Whether such a quantity can be produced from tar
sands and
oil shale at a
price near (never mind below) $ 30 per barrel is highly uncertain, but more suggestive
of Lomborgs confusion in any case is that the
price he mentions is higher (according to his own Figure 65) than the
price of oil has been for any prolonged period in the last 120 years except for 1979 - 86, in the aftermath
of the second (1979) Arab - OPEC
oil -
price shock.3 This means resources
of tar
sands and
oil shale that would be economically exploitable only at
prices around $ 30 per barrel are in fact more expensive than
oil has been for nearly all
of the last century.
Nathan says high
prices have made it increasingly economically viable to extract more unconventional forms
of oil, in particular the asphaltlike tar
sands (also known as
oil sand, or extremely heavy crude
oil) plentiful in northern Alberta, Canada.
Oil sent on the planned line could supplant much of those imports and give oil sands producers access to high - priced Atlantic markets for the first ti
Oil sent on the planned line could supplant much
of those imports and give
oil sands producers access to high - priced Atlantic markets for the first ti
oil sands producers access to high -
priced Atlantic markets for the first time.
Tar
sands, deep
oil and fracking have severely blunted the
oil peak, reduced fuel
prices and have actually reduced CO2 because
of the natural gas that comes with them.
If the
price of a barrel drops too much, future
oil sand plans are at risk and modular buildings won't be needed at that point.
With so much
of their economy based on
oil sands, fracking, and refineries, Canada depends on a decent global
oil price in order to be economically stable.