A number of stock analysts feel that this bull market's age (more than seven years old now) combined with somewhat lofty stock -
price valuations make it vulnerable to a major setback.
Not exact matches
The dilemma for Fidelity and Hartford, says Drew Nordlicht, partner and managing director of Hightower Advisors in San Diego, is whether to
make subsequent investments at their own
price threshold, or to use Blackrock's 20 percent higher
valuation, which means a dilution of their own shares.
That means that Snap stock will be insanely expensive: At a $ 24 billion
valuation, Snap shares will have a
price - to - sales ratio of 59,
making it far richer than Facebook stock and other social media companies — and likely the most expensive tech IPO ever.
For real estate, the typical
valuation ratios are
price to income (what you can afford to buy) and
price or buy to rent (what you could
make in cash flow).
The main reason high
prices foretell paltry gains is that rich
valuations make dividend yields smaller.
Merger skeptics argue that today's premium
valuations make it a bad time for Gilead to be a biotech buyer: The recent M&A surge has driven up the
prices of companies investors see as potential Gilead targets — including Vertex (VRTX) and Bristol - Myers Squibb (BMY).
After all, the currency fueling much of the deal -
making — those companies» inflated equity
valuations — is now depressed, and acquisition targets may prefer to hold out for a higher
price.
If you believe the outlook will
make funding more difficult (in time and
price) you owe it to yourself to keep your burn rate in check so you can last longer until you need money and either «grow into your
valuation» or at least get through a period of time where raising capital is more difficult
At Berkshire Hathaway's recent annual shareholders meeting, an investor asked Buffett about the relevance of two popular measures of stock market value: 1) market cap - to - GDP, which Buffett once heralded as «probably the best single measure of where
valuations stand at any given moment» and 2) the cyclically - adjusted
price - earnings ratio (CAPE), which was
made famous by Nobel prize winner Robert Shiller and was seen as accurately predicting the dot - com bubble and the housing bubble.
«Much has been
made of Square's greatly reduced
valuation, but this is still a highly flawed company with a multi-billion dollar
price tag.»
Spotify
made its highly anticipated Wall Street debut on Tuesday, with a closing
price of $ 149.60, giving the music streaming company a
valuation of $ 26.6 billion.
This
makes sense for the obvious reason that paying lower
prices /
valuations for stocks should lead to higher than average returns just as paying higher
prices /
valuations should lead to lower than average returns.
The most reliable measures of individual stock
valuation we've found are based on formal discounted cash flow considerations, but among publicly - available measures we've evaluated,
price / revenue ratios are better correlated with actual subsequent returns than
price / earnings ratios (though normalized profit margins and other factors are obviously necessary to
make cross-sectional comparisons).
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I
make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high
price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher
valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
Keep in mind that a good company only
makes a good long - term investment if it's purchased at a reasonable
price, so readers should only buy when they consider
valuations to be appropriate.
The Fed might be able to stir things up next week, but despite the extremely high level of the most valuable
valuation measures (CAPE, P / S...) and the weak market internals, the
price action
makes a break - out to new highs very likely here.
Valuing a company through relative
valuation to identify low -
priced companies with strong fundamentals can
make for deceiving looking bargain stocks.
I agree that buybacks at a high
valuation are likely foolish, but increasing the attractiveness of the stock to those focused on the immediate payback would seem to
make acquiring more shares at a good
price more difficult.
Now that the financial crippled club has not managed to get the asking
price they wanted for David Villa, with both Barcelona and Real Madrid looking elsewhere for quality striking options, they are forced to consider lowering their
valuation on Silva in order to
make ends meet.
The journalist Jose Luis Sanchez has said on Spanish TV that Arsenal have
made a substantial bid for Rodriguez, but Real have rejected us as the
price is short of Real's # 69.8 million
valuation.
1) Overpaid players on high salaries 2) Leave selling players at the very end of transfer window 3) Club not knowing what their priorities are during a transfer window by planning beforehand 4) Being too greedy for wanting higher
valuation price on average players or selling players bellow their market rate 5) Letting players hold the club to ransom by giving them game time just to
make them happy 6) Using the lack of players leaving as an excuse for not signing more players
Wenger himself doesn't want to spend all in the name of «I have not got the right quality in the market, the
prices are way above their actual
valuation» etc. but even if he does buy, it's difficult to believe anything could easily change at the moment because he doesn't have guts to point fingers at players who even
make serial mistakes e.g. xhaka in three consecutive games, his three mistaken passes have resulted into three goals which I doubt a coach like maurinho can tolerate.
However, they have no intention of
making concessions on his
price - tag to reflect that, and will stick by their $ 45m
valuation this summer to really put the pressure on Guardiola and City.
bet its because mr wenger
pricing is in cuckoo - wenger - land and he
made a bid on that
valuation and not the real world
valuation of carvalho
The headwinds and tailwinds are driven by
valuation, often expressed through Q - ratio, CAPE, or Michael Alexander's
Price - to - Resources ratio, out of which the book
makes a lot (link here for an example).
Trend following
price action is an alternative to participating in the randomness of trying to
make buy and sell decisions by calculating fundamental
valuations in the hopes that the market will agree at some future date.
These
valuations make me uncomfortable, especially given the unknowns in taxation, foreign trade, regulation and more... To sum up, the markets are
priced for perfection, and they have been that way for quite some time, complacency reigns supreme.
Given what his
price / peak earnings tells him about the market's current
valuation (stomach - churningly high) and his perception that several of the supporting investment elements that have so far
made valuations irrelevant are starting to break down, what's he doing with the portfolios in his care?
Technicals eventually break down and
prices fall significantly to
make those
valuations attractive again.
The point I am leading up to is that, while the implementation of VII can be
made very simple, it will not work unless you have in place some means of helping you develop and strengthen an understanding of the effect of emotions /
valuations on stock
prices and on the general economy.
That brings us to the next potential risk — the risk that the largest companies in the S&P 500 Index also tend to be overvalued when compared with their 10 - year average
price / earnings (P / E) ratio.2 According to our research taking these
valuation measures into account, 70 % of the 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 Index were overvalued, as of December 31, 2015 and 56 % of the top 25 stocks are overvalued, the very same ones that
make up a third of the index allocation.
The 15 % decline in the share
price of Hilton has
made the
valuation more attractive and created a buying opportunity for investors.
I think its funny when peopme talk about how the share
price has done nothing oover the last 10 - 15 years but
make no mention of the ridiculous
valuation at the start or the period or the fact that the company has grown a whole lot.
Make sure you keep any
valuations from estate agents and keep adverts for sales of similar properties in your area in case there is a dispute in the future over the
price for which the lender sold the property.
A 1.0
Price / Book
valuation makes the most sense here, which leaves the shares trading just over fair value.
Post-oil
price collapse, this 10 % rule doesn't
make sense... I think it's prudent to adopt an $ 8 per proved boe
valuation & to discount in similar fashion.
Now, if the stock had declined even further to a
price that
made the
valuation $ 40 million instead of $ 80 million, its beta would have been greater.
First Cut Graham Stocks With a Low
Price Relative to Net Current Assets Applying Ben Graham's philosophy, 25 profitable companies with cheap
valuations made The First Cut.
A traditional manager usually charges a 1 % of AUM fee, and is valued at up to a 3.0
Price / Sales — so a 2.5 % to 3 % of AUM
valuation makes perfect sense!
If momentum is negative, falling
prices will
make valuations fall, which raises long - term return potential.
If momentum is positive, rising
prices will
make valuations rise, which lowers long - term return potential.
Beyond the staggering
valuation given the existing stock of gold, current
prices make today's annual production of gold command about $ 160 billion.
«We want to
make sure we buy long lead - life, low decline - rate assets at attractive
valuations, with good balance sheets, in order to survive the short - term and very intense volatility we're seeing in the
price of oil,» McKinley said.
If you are to
make really big money in the stock market, resign yourself to the fact that just about everything you buy, if you are buying stocks correctly, will seem too high
priced by just about any traditional measure of
valuation.
For shorter periods (of 10 or 20 years), you must
make adjustments for
valuation changes in the
Price to Dividend ratio (or dividend yield since the
Price to Dividend ratio equals one divided by the dividend yield).
If management chooses instead to hoard capital, chase acquisitions, and ignore shareholders & shareholder value, it's playing a dangerous game noting the current weak share
price &
valuation — a predator doesn't need synergies or management (or even many of the staff) to
make an acquisition of Rasmala into a compelling opportunity...
For
Price / Book, I'll
make two small adjustments to Equity: First, a mark - to - mark
valuation of their 23.0 % holding in DiamondCorp (DCP: LN).
It's also far more volatile than the P&L, so averaging this cash shortfall over the last few years &
pricing / adjusting my
valuation accordingly continues to
make sense — albeit with room for improvement, if we see a sustained cashflow trend.
Below, we go through a
valuation methodology — grounded in history and logic — that quantifies this inflation and
makes the case for higher nominal gold and equity
prices.
I analyse stocks, I try to understand businesses, and I
make a value call on whether or not the current
price provides an attractive
valuation.