What I know about Albany politics —
primary election turnout is very low.
Not exact matches
But the most important lesson for those of us on the trailis that the
primaries process itself has been hugely energising for Americans, a country with even worse
turnout than Britain in recent
elections.
That Paladino defeated Lazio in the
primary was something of a surprise, but like the general
election against Cuomo he managed to get high
turnout in western New York.
Anyone who follows politics will tell you voter
turnout in a
primary election is typically low, but Thursday's 7.5 percent voter
turnout in the Buffalo - area was among the lowest in recent memory.
Despite some Republican party activists asserting this is the most important presidential
election since George Washington was elected (no, really), voter
turnout in several cases was lower than in the 2008 Republican
Primary.
It's a position that could play well in a low -
turnout Republican
primary, but potentially cause serious headaches in a general
election match - up in an overwhelmingly blue state.
Second, these folks are properly focusing on the two elements critical to swinging
primary and general
elections: money and voter
turnout.
And as we've seen in lower -
turnout elections through the entire 2010 cycle, both special
elections and
primaries, national money can make a decisive difference: Lisa Murkowski and Mike Castle may be the latest victims, but Scott Brown's win back in January had already shown the way.
On
turnout, as with a
primary, special
elections tend to bring out a more involved subset of voters, clouding any apples - to - apples prediction for the next general
election.
It's not particularly surprising to see that seniors made up a disproportionate share of the
turnout last year, as they historically represent a large share of the vote in low
turnout elections, such as
primary and special
elections.
Tiffany Davenport's friend - to - friend email study, «Unsubscribe: The Effects of Peer - to - Peer Email on Voter
Turnout; Results from a Field Experiment in the June 6, 2006, California
Primary Election,» shows even stronger results.
A simultaneous Democratic
primary for county clerk between Assemblyman Michael Kearns and Janique Curry may serve as a «proxy
election» that could increase
turnout and aid each mayoral candidate in his home turf.
But until polls are released suggesting otherwise, there's no reason to think Gipson will enjoy the
turnout edge that Democrats typically benefit from in presidential
election years: The district contains parts of Dutchess and Putnam counties, both of which went to Bernie Sanders in the Democratic
primary and overwhelmingly to Donald Trump in the GOP's contest.
But voter
turnout in
primaries, like the New York governor's race, is abysmally low, so the ideologues on the far left and far right — and the special interests who throw money at the
elections — control the process.
Of course, even though New Yorkers cast their ballots on September 10, just two months from today, it is still relatively early in the
election season and polls of low -
turnout primaries are notoriously unreliable.
Because the
primary is being held so early, it's more or less tantamount to a special
election, which means
turnout will be low and victory will likely go to whoever has the stronger GOTV operation.
In several state Senate and Assembly races across the city, Democratic
primary winners were selected in fairly low voter
turnout affairs and most will easily cruise to
election in November - some won't even have a Republican opponent.
At some Harlem polling sites, there was tepid
turnout among voters, site coordinators said, but also said that is to be expected in Congressional
primary elections.
Turnout in the Democratic Primary on Tuesday for Buffalo Mayor was less than 25 %, continuing a disturbing trend of low turnout in primary elections in Buffalo and Erie
Turnout in the Democratic
Primary on Tuesday for Buffalo Mayor was less than 25 %, continuing a disturbing trend of low turnout in primary elections in Buffalo and Erie
Primary on Tuesday for Buffalo Mayor was less than 25 %, continuing a disturbing trend of low
turnout in primary elections in Buffalo and Erie
turnout in
primary elections in Buffalo and Erie
primary elections in Buffalo and Erie County.
The memo also says that the «astoundingly» low
turnout in last week's Democratic
primary for governor «demonstrates that there is very little intensity in this
election among Democrats.»
Nevertheless, a TimesLedger check of
turnout for recent
elections in the same Assembly district showed that voting was higher in the September 2012
primary than the most recent
primary election to date.
The April 19 date coincides with the presidential
primary election in New York State and was chosen to both «maximize voter
turnout and minimize the cost to taxpayers,» according to Gov. Cuomo.
But
turnout is expected to be dismal in what is now the third
primary of the
election season.
Yet our city's voter
turnout numbers, particularly in
primary elections, are disappointing, dismal and unacceptable.
Low
turnout is expected on
primary day for an
election among candidates still trying to build name recognition.
But with low
turnout and multiple conservatives running in each
primary, it would be a surprise if the disgraced former lawmakers advanced to the special general
election in March.
In several state Senate and Assembly races across the city, Democratic
primary winners were selected in fairly low voter
turnout affairs and most will easily cruise to
election in November - some won't even have
In a low -
turnout primary election, retired Erie County Sheriff's Lieutenant Richard Dobson is about 600 votes ahead of Sheriff's Lieutenant Bert Dunn, the endorsed Democratic candidate.
While both parties have large enough bases of loyalists to ensure victories in low
turnout primaries, Levy said that may not be enough in a countywide general
election
With a voter
turnout far above the usual for a
primary election, Kennedy came out of the unofficial voting machine count 271 votes ahead of County Legislature Chair Betty Jean Grant.
There is just one mechanical hitch in the hope of a
primary turnout fueling votes in the Senate special
election: The presidential
primary and state Senate special
election will be on different ballots.
These are apples and oranges comparisons for obvious reasons: New York has more Democratic voters than Republican ones for starters, while
turnout in
primaries is a notoriously difficult to gage and draw deeper conclusion from for a general
election.
Gov. Andrew Cuomo didn't seem all that bothered by this week's low
turnout for
primaries statewide, saying: «Some
elections people turn out heavily, sometimes they turn out in less volume.
Democrats, good - government groups and some
elections officials had wanted a June date, saying that an August
primary would make for even lower voter
turnout.
Barring total catastrophe, Mr. de Blasio could almost certainly count on muscular support from labor unions and county Democratic organizations that drive
turnout in
primary elections.
Pollster Greenberg admitted
primaries are low
turnout elections.
Long, a New York City attorney, defeated U.S. Representative Bob Turner and Nassau County Comptroller George Maragos in a
primary election Tuesday notable for low
turnout.
«Everyone has anticipated a lower
turnout than a usual
primary simply because there's only one
election, one position and also because of the first time in a long time this
primary is being held in June,» Meng said, acknowledging the reality of the situation as she cast her vote early in the day.
Somehow I'm going to have to find a way to get total
primary results for all 435 Congressional Districts, and the 35 Senate districts up for
election, to compare partisan
turnouts to general
election votes.
Primaries are typically low -
turnout elections, and Teachout is betting that the Democrats most likely to vote are the ones most likely to be following her campaign.
Given the fact that the June 26
primary is early, it could be viewed as a sort of hybrid special
election, which means it will have low
turnout and could turn on which candidate has the best GOTV operation.
But
primary elections have notoriously low
turnouts so every vote counts and the job won't be done till the last voting moment at 9PM Tuesday night!
Following the sparse
turnout in the
primary election in WNY, attention now turns to Nov. 3 and fears that the general
election won't spark much excitement, either.
The date — which coincides with the presidential
primary election in New York State — was chosen in order to both «maximize voter
turnout and minimize the cost to taxpayers,» according to the governor.
If the
turnout at the fourth District Council 25 candidate forum is any indication, the district's
primary election could be one of the most exciting in the borough.
In the 2013 Democratic public advocate runoff
election,
turnout was seven percent, compared to 18 percent in the
primary, according to data provided by FairVote, a nonpartisan group that pushes for electoral reforms.
The campaign's poll, however, isn't without its own red flags: A whopping 24 percent of the Democrats it deemed likely to show up to the polls didn't lean one way or another in the presidential
primary held the same day as the Senate
election (the comparable number in most recent polls has been below ten), suggesting it might have been overly generous in estimating Democratic
turnout on April 19.
The new
election date coincides with the presidential
primary date which Cuomo chose hoping to maximize voter
turnout and reduce the cost to taxpayers.
Trailing in the polls with less than a day until the
primary election, Assemblyman David Weprin «s congressional campaign is pulling out all the stops and hopes to win the race on
turnout, especially in the district's minority areas.
Krasner said the
turnout, the highest among the borough's contested races, according to a TimesLedger analysis, was about average for a
primary election, with 10 percent or less being a bad
turnout and 20 percent being a good
turnout.