That question never came up
in prior bear markets, but it will have to be answered before the bottom comes.
Given today's DJIA never recovered as much as it has during historical bear markets, it may be less likely today that the DJIA will drop as much as it did
during prior bear markets.
i'd be curious... trying to find it myself... the number of long biased / long only managers that produced postive returns in 2001 - 2002... also looking for info on correlation levels in
prior bear markets between stocks... if 2008 and subsequent swoons in summer 10,11,12 had higher than normal correlations, maybe a garden variety bear dropping the market 30 % can still have areas where managers can generate positive returns due to a lower level of correlations.
Investment
Newsletters Prior Bear Markets: A Poor Guide to Future Newsletter Performance The current stock bear market has been so traumatic, it is likely to dominate investment decision - making for years.
Finally, if GEM underperforms over shorter periods of time, many investors are willing to accept that because of the drawdown protection it has shown
during prior bear markets.
You obviously can not have a new bull market begin until
the prior bear market ends, and until those new highs get made, there is a lack of convincing evidence.
Additionally, there re-entry lags when a new bull market begins after dual momentum has taken you out of
a prior bear market.