$ GXG may still need another week or two of basing action above its 10 and 40 - week moving averages, as well as new support of
its prior swing highs from July, before breaking out.
The weekly chart below shows support from
prior swing highs and the rising 10 - week moving average.
Will the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recover by rallying above
their prior swing highs on heavy volume, or will the indexes stall out after a light volume bounce and roll over to new swing lows?
It too continues to act well, and closed yesterday right at resistance of
its prior swing highs from mid-May.
Finally, as for the exit point, our target on this type of momentum trade is simply a retest of
the prior swing high (or prior swing low if selling short).
The Dow Jones Industrial Average SPDR ($ DIA) has support from
a prior swing high and 50 - day moving average, which are converging around the $ 160 area.
In late December, $ RSX formed a second higher low, right at near - term technical support of the 20 - day EMA, which led to a failed breakout above
the prior swing high.
Bitcoin is also up today, but while the majority of altcoins are trading on new rally highs, BTC is stuck below
the prior swing high at $ 8400, which is also a previously established resistance level.
TMV Swing Trade report — Long July Cocoa @ 2957 — last price @ 3026 — The market surged higher and tested the ascending median line and
the prior swing high at 3062.
TMV Swing Trade report — Long may Coffee @ 276.95 — current price @ 279.50 — Coffee rallied to a high of 281.90, surpassing
the prior swing high of 281.15, soon after the buy signal triggered at 276.95.
1) The S&P 500 is ~ 12 points from not only a major technical target (2084.30) but also this descending trendline, which would protect
a prior swing high and leave the longer bearish macro picture in place for the forseeable future.
In my mind, this is still a reapeat of what we saw at the end of last year until we can get back above
that prior swing high at 54.71 on a closing basis.
Not exact matches
Approximately 90 % or more of our ETF and stock breakout entries will have some sort of a «
higher swing low» in place
prior to our buy entry, and this setup was no different:
Furthermore, the odds of $ DZZ going to a new
high are much lower than the odds of it simply going back to retest its
prior highs because now there is resistance of a major
swing high (support of a key
swing low in $ GLD).
Although both DIA and SPY are testing resistance of their
prior «
swing highs» from September, such action alone would not be concerning because the indexes could simply form a multi-week base of consolidation near current price levels, then eventually continue to new
highs again.
Since stocks and ETFs trading at new 52 - week
highs have no overhead supply and price resistance of
prior highs to hold them down, our most profitable
swing trades are frequently in stocks and ETFs trading at 52 - week
highs (like this $ CBM trade we closed on August 15 for an 11 % gain on a 4 - day hold).
For the past three weeks, New 52 - Week
Highs (the blue line) has formed several «
higher lows,» and is now poised to breakout above resistance of its
prior «
swing high.»
In our last blog post, Benefits of a rules - based trading system, we said the following: «On May 1 (Tuesday), the combination of heavy volume selling in the Nasdaq, bearish «stalling action» in the S&P 500, and a «distribution day» (
higher volume selling) the
prior day forced us to cut long exposure in our model
swing trading portfolio from approximately 38 % down to 17 % by the following day's open (May 2).