Sentences with phrase «probabilistic forecasts»
Probabilistic forecasts refer to predictions or estimations that are given in terms of probabilities. Instead of providing a single forecast or prediction, probabilistic forecasts provide a range of possible outcomes along with the probability or likelihood of each outcome occurring. It helps to understand the level of uncertainty associated with a forecast, giving a more comprehensive understanding of potential future scenarios. Full definition
Forecasting In contrast to the predictive uselessness of conventional assumptions about the direction of causality between social events and mood (see opening paragraph), the socionomic perspective allows a basis for at least some limited probabilistic forecasting.
socionomics.net
Accepting the limits of probabilistic methods and refusing to make probabilistic forecasts where those limits are exceeded, originates, ultimately, from the virtue of truthfulness, and from the requirements of scienti c policy advice in a democratic society.
We tend to provide probabilistic forecasts only, and we're really not keen on giving a single number.
Air carriers are more and more interested in probabilistic forecasts for optimizing decision making.
Develop models and probabilistic forecasting tools to quantify uncertainties in the atmospheric drivers, surface characteristics, and soil properties that control the timing and extent of permafrost thaw in the next few decades and centuries.
forecast lead - time at which the continuous ranked probability skill score (CRPSS) for ENS probabilistic forecasts of 24 - hour total precipitation reaches 10 % for the extra-tropics (northern and southern hemispheres); verification against station observations
For example, participants learned how to simply but effectively depict probabilistic forecasts in graphs to farmers during a group work discussion.
The Meteorological Research Applications Group performs research and develops meteorological methods (e.g. probabilistic forecasts), specific weather forecasting systems (e.g. road weather) and forecast verification methods.
Probabilistic forecast of September 2010 sea ice concentration anomalies.
With this knowledge, we again have the ability to do some limited probabilistic forecasting both in terms of predicting actions against monopolies and predicting major social mood changes when those actions occur.
FiveThirtyEight defines ELO as a metric that «identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player's future might look like.»
Uncertainty estimation and probabilistic forecasting is also valuable for understanding the relative chances of different kinds of governments emerging after the election.
Instead, they use «probabilistic forecasting» based on seismic clustering.
The probabilistic forecast shown in Figure 5, using winter (Jan - Feb - Mar) North Atlantic sea surface temperature as the predictor, predicts a high probability of above - normal ice concentrations along the coast.
We pioneer methods to quantify the forecast uncertainty and provide a probabilistic forecast.
Because it's a probabilistic forecast, we don't expect to get it right every time.
So this means that these are probabilistic forecasts.
The last point emphasizes the need for further development and analysis of probabilistic forecast ranges and measures of uncertainty, critical to future efforts.
Probabilistic forecasting, measures of uncertainty, and more formal evaluation methods need to be evaluated in more depth in future efforts.
We also feel that increased use of probabilistic forecasting would be useful.
If model simulations give us probabilistic forecasts of future climate, why are climate model simulations «compared» with the average of the last few years current «weather» — and those that don't match up well are rejected or devalued?