Sentences with phrase «probabilistic projections»
"Probabilistic projections" refers to predictions or forecasts that are based on probabilities or likelihoods. Instead of making a single prediction, it considers multiple possible outcomes and assigns probabilities to each. It recognizes that the future is uncertain and provides a range of possible results rather than a definite outcome. Full definition
In this approach based on detection and attribution methods, which is compared with other approaches for producing probabilistic projections in Section 10.5.4.5, different scaling factors are applied to the greenhouse gases and to the response to other anthropogenic forcings (notably aerosols); these separate scaling factors are used to account for possible errors in the models and aerosol forcing.
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The new projections fall outside of the 95 % confidence range of 2015 UN probabilistic projections, which range from 9.5 to 13 billion in 2100.
For the moment, though, the projections of global and local changes made by the new paper and by our 2014 paper remain among the best available probabilistic projections.
When emissions continue unabated (RCP8.5 scenario), the IPCC expects 12 % to 54 % decline by 2100 (see also the current probabilistic projections of Schleussner et al. 2014).
A number of different observationally based metrics have been used to weight the reliability of contributing models when making probabilistic projections (see Section 10.5.4).
Probabilistic projections with the box model allowed consideration of all major uncertainties, such as modeled temperature sensitivities to CO2 concentrations, Greenland Ice Sheet melt sensitivities to temperature changes, and AMOC sensitivities to both temperature and Greenland Ice Sheet melt changes.
While probabilistic projections of the global mean and regional temperatures exist, process - based probabilistic assessments of large - scale dynamical systems such as the Atlantic overturning are still missing.
Our framework links innovative approaches for (1) generating high - resolution, probabilistic projection of future climate and sea - level changes and (2) empirically identifying robust statistical relationships characterizing how humans have responded to past climate variability and past climate change, in order to (3) project how humans may respond to uncertain future changes.
Probabilistic projections produce a range of thousands of potential scenarios, so that they can show a range of possibilities of aging outcomes.
Ensembles of climate models, sampling uncertainties in model formulation, are commonly used as the basis for generation of probabilistic projections.