But there is uncertainty associated with all the forecasts and some forecasters are trying to estimate the extent of that uncertainty, which in turn can be used to calculate
probabilities of particular events (hung parliament, largest party, etc..)
«The more useful question for real - world decisions is: «Is
the probability of a particular event statistically different now compared with a climate without human influence?»»
Not exact matches
Of particular concern is the finding that the probability of multiple adverse events occurring within one season is projected to increase sharply by mid-centur
Of particular concern is the finding that the
probability of multiple adverse events occurring within one season is projected to increase sharply by mid-centur
of multiple adverse
events occurring within one season is projected to increase sharply by mid-century.
A nomogram is a graphic depiction
of models that can be utilized to estimate the numeric
probability of death, disease progression, or other
events for a
particular patient.
This Concept introduces the student to complements, in
particular, finding the
probability of events by using the complement rule
Like the risk
of an accident in a
particular new class
of power station, such a
probability for a single future
event can not be calculated objectively; it is an expression
of a subjective assessment
of the likelihood based on limited available knowledge.
Her talk focused in the concept
of forecast reliability, defined mathematically as the statistical correspondence between the forecast
probability and the observed frequency
of an
event, given a
particular event of interest.
The appropriate null hypothesis to use in such studies is that human influence has not increased the
probability of occurrence
of a
particular weather
event unless the evidence suggests otherwise.
This is different from insurance and genetics where there are lots
of data available for testing the
probabilities of well - described
events such as higher accident rates in a stratum, or higher disease rates with
particular alleles.
The executive summary is that there is no way to capture the concept
of «ignorance» in Bayesian
probability, in that any
probability distribution represents a precise and specific set
of probabilities assigned to
particular events.
To asses the risk associated with a
particular event we must know first
of all the
probability of that
event occurring (i.e. how likely is it that the Arctic will be seasonally ice free by 2020) and calculate a measure
of the harm / hazard if this
event were it to occur (i.e. a rapid acceleration
of climate change).
Frustration acted as a general risk factor predicting severity
of maladjustment; low Effortful Control and Fear acted as dimension - specific risk factors that predicted a
particular type
of psychopathology; whereas Shyness, High - Intensity Pleasure, and Affiliation acted as direction markers that steered the conditional
probability of internalizing versus externalizing problems, in the
event of maladjustment.