A
"probability bet" refers to a situation where you make a decision or take a course of action based on the likelihood or chance of something happening.
Full definition
It is a
low probability bet that has positive expectancy, and it's a bet you should take every time.
While the past is no guarantee of the future, it seems to be a
reasonable probability bet that firms selling the essentials of everyday life are, as a group, going to have an easier time maintaining their dividend distributions compared to companies such as, say, those involved in manufacturing automobiles.
You can narrow the pool of investments down to the point where what's left are the highest
probability bets among securities of that type and you get the added benefit (with net net stocks, at any rate) of outperforming moast moat - type companies.
But it looks like a
high probability bet that the spread between the returns on stocks and bonds should be wider in the future than it has been for the past three decades or so.
Interesting and sometimes compelling idea that may be very illiquid, may be
a probability bet with a favourable asymmetrical reward to risk ratio, or may simply be a low quality business that is very cheap relative on a net - net working capital or price / tangible book value basis.