Sentences with phrase «probability estimates of the climate sensitivity»

Not exact matches

«the long fat tail that is characteristic of all recent estimates of climate sensitivity simply disappears, with an upper 95 % probability limit... easily shown to lie close to 4 °C, and certainly well below 6 °C.»

A number of subsequent publications qualitatively describe parameter values that allow models to reproduce features of observed changes, but without directly estimating a climate sensitivity probability density function (PDF).

Their Summary for Policymakers includes an expanded range of climate sensitivity estimates, compared to the IPCC's 2007 assessment, of 1.5 ° -4.5 °C with a likelihood defined as 66 - 100 % probability.

The analysts choose three values of climate sensitivity (CS) that correspond to the 5th percentile (CS = 2.0 °C), median (CS = 2.5 °C), and 95th percentile (CS = 4.5 °C) of the probability density function that were jointly estimated with the ocean heat uptake rate.

The probability distributions give a most likely estimate of 3 °C of warming for a doubling of CO2, and all pragmatic scientists tend to work on the basis that the climate sensitivity is not drastically more than that.

The study estimated with 68 percent probability that the equivalent equilibrium climate sensitivity is between 2.2 and 4.8 °C for a doubling of CO2, generally consistent with IPCC estimates, and inconsistent with the lower estimates preferred by GWPF.

Using available climate sensitivity uncertainty estimates (pdfs by Murphy et al., Gregory et al., Forest et al., Wigley & Raper, Knutti et al., etc...), the probability of overshooting 2 °C global mean temperature rise above pre-industrial levels for a stabilization at 550ppm CO2eq are between 70 % -99 %.