Sentences with phrase «probability of a bear market»

In other words, the current bull market is aging, which increases the probability of a bear market.

Not exact matches

That is number is how large your nut needs to be to have a 99.99 % probability based on the last 100 years of data to be guaranteed to never run out of money no mater if you retired into the worst bear market in history.

But remember, regardless of the president, there's a high probability that investors will see a bear market during a commander in chief's time in office.

What I found was a way to use Bayesian Probability Analysis to forecast the likelihood of bear markets and economic recessions.

In all probability, December 2015 marked the bottom of the cyclical gold and silver bear market — a bear cycle that had been in play since silver topped in May 2011 and gold in September of the same year.

By Financial Sense: By Cris Sheridan Last month I argued that there was «Still No Sign of a Bear Market» with four charts displaying the following: Strong upward trend in leading economic data Low probability of recession Low...

We investors have been doing well the past few years as the economy and stock market recovered from the Great Recession, When in a bull market, the probability of making mistakes becomes lower than when one is in a volatile or bear market.

I arrived at a duration of 25 years which I think is both quantitatively satisfactory and intuitively correct since the global stock market tends to have a very low probability of multi-decade bear markets.

During these severe sector bear markets, I ran industry screens searching for companies that had an above average probability of surviving their industry's recession.