Sentences with phrase «probability of a heatwave»

When summer mean temperatures edged from 27 °C to 27.5 °C, the probability of a heatwave that would kill more than 100 people grew from 13 % to 32 %: that is, the probability more than doubled to an increase of 146 %.

Not exact matches

Other studies suggest the probability of deadly heatwaves on this scale will become 5 — 10 times more likely in coming years.

For example, the 2003 European heatwave caused tens of thousands of deaths33 and was later superseded in intensity by the 2010 European heatwave, events which can be expected to increase in probability over the 2010 — 2050 period34.

Now, without going to the trouble of a Baysian probability analysis (which would just be putting numbers to educated guesswork), I think there is good reason to consider the Russian Heatwave sufficiently improbable on the assumption of no warming (relative to its probability on the assumption of GW) that it is worth independant recognition as evidence of the warming globe instead of just being burried under a mob of other statistics.