But an alternative is to make statistical calculations for
the probability of false positives among these thousands of exoplanet candidates.
The 95 % significance level means that there's only a 1 in 20 chance that the stated finding (RR) does not lie within the stated confidence interval, ie
the probability of a false positive is.05.
Not exact matches
One common misinterpretation is that a P value
of.05 implies a 95 percent
probability that the effect is real (or, in other words, that the chance
of a
false positive is only 5 percent).
If your goal is a 5 percent risk
of a
false positive, you need a prior
probability of 87 percent when the P value is.05.
«That separation indicates that the
probability of random effects causing a
false positive match using the CMC method is very low,» said co-author and physicist Ted Vorburger.
Probability of occurrence
of the classes
of false positives (diluted and undiluted binaries) and
of confirmed planets detected by CoRoT, per unit log
of transit depth, based on the amplitude found in the original CoRoT light - curve.
«Unequivocal» is merely > 90 %
probability, significantly short
of the 95 % confidence Trenberth tells us that scientists normally rely upon to avoid
false positives.
Out
of 7056 KOIs, we determine that 1935 have
probabilities < 1 % to be astrophysical
false positives, and thus may be considered validated planets.
Abstract: We present astrophysical
false positive probability calculations for every Kepler Object
of Interest (KOI)-- the first large - scale demonstration
of a fully automated transiting planet validation procedure.
The transit signals were detected in photometric data from the Kepler satellite, and were confirmed to arise from planets using a combination
of large transit - timing variations, radial - velocity variations, Warm - Spitzer observations, and statistical analysis
of false -
positive probabilities.
Based on an analysis
of the Kepler brightness measurements, along with high - resolution imaging and spectroscopy, Doppler spectroscopy, and (for 11 stars) asteroseismology, we establish low
false -
positive probabilities for all
of the transiting planets (41
of 42 have a
false -
positive probability under 1 %), and we constrain their sizes and masses.
A promising exoplanet candidate w... ▽ More As is the case for all techniques involved in the research for exoplanets, direct imaging has to take into account the
probability of so - called astrophysical
false positives, which are phenomena that mimic the signature
of objects we are seeking.
No correlation is significant under the Bonferroni correction, which aims at keeping at the
probability of one or more
false positives and would require (when applied separately to each family
of 14 comparisons between one measure
of popularity and one C - BARQ variable).
This statistic measures model performance by plotting the sensitivity values — the true
positive fraction
of test points — against 1 - specificity — the
false -
positive fraction for all available
probability thresholds [53].
Since the possibility space for the existence
of major problems is large, calculating
probabilities or possibilities
of each is sure to lead to
false positives.