Focusing on the higher time frames is probably the easiest thing you can do to immediately increase
the probability of making money in the market as you trade.
If there is one dominant factor to increasing
the probability of making money consistently in the market, it would be to simplify every aspect of your trading as much as possible.
It's OK to understand various entry triggers and setups, but if you're trading against the dominant market bias,
your probabilities of making money decrease dramatically.
Not exact matches
If my expected value for playing the game, based on the cost
of playing and the
probabilities of winning different prizes, is positive, then, in the long run, the game will
make me
money.
The goal in my counsel, and that
of my co-workers in the firm, is to have clients understand what we have known all along: We are unable to predict the market's outcome, so don't fall into the trap where you think you can
make predictions or you'll ultimately increase the
probability of losing
money.
If you want ot discuss Steve Stevens as a fraud, best to stik to things like the lack
of reason for doubling up bets, the mathematically proven Kelly criterion adn the proper amount to bet on a $ 50,000 bankroll with a 70 % win
probability and 11 - 10 odds, and the fact that he tells clients he is great
money - management adviser, and he keeps repeating that he is there to help you stay in control aqnd then tells clients to
make $ 99,000 in bets based on a $ 50,000 bankroll.
This may sound a bit «fluffy», but it really is rooted in logic; if you
make mastering your chosen trading strategy your all - consuming desire, instead
of making money, you will naturally reduce the
probability of committing emotional trading mistakes because you will not be focused on
money (focusing on
money induces emotional trading).
Most
of us have a limited supply
of bullets (
money), so we have to
make each bullet count and not waste them on low -
probability targets (stupid trades).
Tip
of the week: «With short selling, you have to balance the slim chance
of making money fast against the greater
probability that you will lose
money — possibly a lot
of it.»
If you're not consciously
making an effort to do everything within your power to put the
probabilities of trading success in your favor, it will be very difficult for you to
make money trading.
All mobile trading apps really do is cause traders to look more closely at the intra-day price movement as well as influence a frantic trading mindset
of feeling like you «always need to be in the market», and so I feel, especially for beginning and struggling traders, mobile trading is something to be avoided if you want to increase the
probabilities of making consistent
money in the market.
When we combine this knowledge
of the power
of risk to reward with a high -
probability edge like price action, what we have is a professional
money management and trading strategy, which when combined with the proper education and discretion will
make money over a series
of at least 20 trades or more.
The final point I want to
make is that when you pick your trades wisely instead
of over-trading; you are preserving the
money in your trading account to use for the «obvious» setups that are higher -
probability.
Avoid Borrowing to Invest Buying stocks with borrowed
money doesn't
make anything a better investment or increase the
probability of gains.
Once you begin to think
of patience as the «most important ingredient» to trading success, and actually understand how and why being a patient trader can actually
make you
money faster, you will have no problem waiting for the best trade setups, because you will feel like you are actually
making money by not trading, which technically you are if it means you are avoiding low -
probability / losing trades.
Now, this is a small example, but it shows you why moving your stops around and getting out at breakeven all the time or even manually closing your trades for small losses or gains BEFORE they hit your pre-determined stop loss or target can and will lower the overall
probability of your trading edge and will thus cause you to have a very difficult time
making money.
There is no mechanical approach that I am aware
of that
makes money long - term, all methods I trade and that others trade that I know
of, use a basic set
of guide - lines, and basic «trading plan conditions» that they use to find a high -
probability entry into the market.
All profitable traders, whether institutions or individuals, will only buy if they believe the
probability of making a profit is greater than the
probability of losing
money.
You can
make a lot more
money by avoiding stocks with a high
probability of losing
money.
Cost benefit analysis in its pure form generally involves four steps: (1) identifying and quantifying the costs and benefits
of a proposed policy; (2) analyzing risks and
probabilities of uncertain consequences; (3) discounting for the «time value
of money»; and (5) calculating the «ratio
of benefits to costs» in order to
make a policy recommendation.
At some point in your marriage, there is a high
probability you will reach a point where temptation hits at the exact same moment you feel you have worked hard to
make money your spouse takes for granted, worked hard to care for a mate too ill to meet your sexual needs, worked hard to stretch a dollar year after year for a partner who won't even buy you a bunch
of flowers on your anniversary.
But people
make a lot
of money on
probabilities because the odds are ultimately in their favor.
Again, not trying to be a fear monger but whatever you think your
probability of getting sued is, the emotional cost means energy your aren't using to
make money which is real dollars lost in your business.