Sentences with phrase «probability scenarios in»

The fat tail scenario while I understand the reasoning, does seem to rely on a number of assumptions (that cAGW is occurring, that it is dangerous and that there is a tipping point) and I think is using the probably using the probability scenarios in a disingenuous way.

There are a several high probability scenarios in which inside bars (IBs) offer fantastic swing entries.

Not exact matches

When you have a strong entry method, like price action setups, combined with an understanding of risk to reward scenarios you begin to think in probabilities.

================ ok... sure... but I think there is higher probability of this scenario... The Conservative elite / establishment in AB, mostly Calgary based, is quite happy with Brian Jean because he's promoting unification, regardless of the fact he's saying come to WRP.

Historically, this suggests an extended period of range bound trading as the highest probability long - term scenario in my view.

In the week leading up to the Conference Championship games, we forecasted the probabilities of each scenario.

However these scenarios are at the extreme outer edges of probability, and, in the absence of some extraordinary event, Labour will almost certainly once again win significantly fewer seats than the Conservatives in 2020, whatever the party's economic policies and whoever is leader.

Headed toward an 8 F rise in warming Other such low - probability but high - risk scenarios mentioned in the report include ecosystem collapses, destabilization of methane stored in the seafloor and rapid greenhouse gas emissions from thawing Arctic permafrost.

«Under the 4 - degree Celsius scenario, we would have a high probability of a three - month ice free period in the summer months by 2050.

These categories describe two low - probability but statistically significant scenarios that could play out by century's end, in a new study by Veerabhadran Ramanathan, a distinguished professor of climate and atmospheric sciences at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego, and his former Scripps graduate student Yangyang Xu, now an assistant professor at Texas A&M University.

With these scenarios in mind, the researchers identified what measures can be taken to slow the rate of global warming to avoid the worst consequences, particularly the low - probability high - impact events.

They concluded that, based on a median value across all scenarios, there's a high probability of a 30 percent decline in the global population of polar bears over the next three to four decades, which supports listing the species as vulnerable on the IUCN Red List.

In two out of these three equally likely scenarios, the double - blue card is the one in his hand, so the probability is twice as great that the other side is bluIn two out of these three equally likely scenarios, the double - blue card is the one in his hand, so the probability is twice as great that the other side is bluin his hand, so the probability is twice as great that the other side is blue.

Physicists had never added a second dimension of time to their models because it opens the possibility of traveling back in time and introduces negative probabilities and other scenarios that seem nonsensical.

Look - ahead simulators would have identified the line as having a higher - than - normal probability of failure, and self - conscious software along the grid and in control centers would have run failure scenarios to determine the ideal corrective response.

In the scenario I ran, a woman needed two extra first - author publications or seven extra middle - author publications to reach the same probability of becoming a PI as a man with an otherwise identical record.

To get a sense for how this probability, or risk of such a storm, will change in the future, he performed the same analysis, this time embedding the hurricane model within six global climate models, and running each model from the years 2081 to 2100, under a future scenario in which the world's climate changes as a result of unmitigated growth of greenhouse gas emissions.

This effectively gave a much greater weight to the high emission (A1) scenarios compared with scenarios in the other families that the SRES authors elected not to explore in the same detail, and led to a significant upward bias in the probability distribution.

Probability distributions of sea - level change in the year 2100, relative to 2006, in four Scandinavian capitals on the Baltic Sea under the «business - as - usual» (RCP8.5) climate scenario.

Each bi-annual report, at over 120 pages, covers key supply and demand developments as well as the overall supply and demand situation, reviews spot and long - term contract activity over the past three months, provides a near - term technical analysis along with detailed spot market indicators, projects prices under different market scenarios with associated probabilities, and examines key developments in the market through a topical essay.

CDV infection increased the 50 - year extinction probability of tigers in SABZ by 6.3 % to 55.8 % compared to a control population, depending on risk scenario.

The results of such calculations, using standard economic assumptions and actuarial survivor probabilities, are shown in Figure 1, where we plot the growth of pension wealth over the career cycle for a typical educator in Missouri under three different promotion scenarios, in 2012 dollars.

In this project pupils will work through two probability scenarios:»n in a row and collecting all siIn this project pupils will work through two probability scenarios:»n in a row and collecting all siin a row and collecting all six.

Martingale is a technical term in probability theory used for a scenario in which knowledge of past events can not be used to predict the future.

Doing so will help you to get «in - tune» with the overall market structure and dynamics and learn to anticipate high - probability trading scenarios... this is how you trade like a sniper or trade like a crocodile, pick your metaphor.

As a result, we will be increasing the probability on our «Rise in global protectionism» scenario which delivers a more stagflationary [1] outcome for the world economy than the baseline forecast.

But the savings rate required to achieve that probability of success in the above scenario can change significantly if you alter just one or two key assumptions.

Key levels occur in a variety of market scenarios, and we can combine these key market levels with simple price action strategies to obtain a high - probability trading strategy.

Then again, there are many risks that Wall Street takes on where the probability of ruin is high enough to happen at least once in a lifetime, but adequate capital is not held because protecting against the meltdown scenario would make the return on equity unacceptable.

Just eyeing these scenarios without dropping in actual numbers gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling; 60 % probability I make some money and only 20 % I lose some, and not much at that.

Worst - case scenario There is a very high probability that Brown is right and First Marblehead's two largest customers will stick around, but let's take a look at the worst - case scenario, in which the big two cancel their contracts.

Now, while I believe there's a low probability of negative 5 year returns, these scenarios shouldn't necessarily imply highly asymmetric upside potential's on offer either... Of course, that will depend on the specific odds you attach to the likelihood of each scenario actually occurring — Scenarios III & IV may require an improved macro / FX environment, a stabilisation / turn - around in dynamic hedging & currency for return, and / or a possibly more aggressive new business scenarios shouldn't necessarily imply highly asymmetric upside potential's on offer either... Of course, that will depend on the specific odds you attach to the likelihood of each scenario actually occurring — Scenarios III & IV may require an improved macro / FX environment, a stabilisation / turn - around in dynamic hedging & currency for return, and / or a possibly more aggressive new business Scenarios III & IV may require an improved macro / FX environment, a stabilisation / turn - around in dynamic hedging & currency for return, and / or a possibly more aggressive new business approach.

To me, home bias is a more unique / significant risk, with some (perhaps small) probability of catastrophe (which unfortunately is often amplified in the rest of your life / finances in the worst case scenario), and something I want to avoid.

I'd love to see a simulation that takes into account the variation inherent in different investment types and looks at the probability of meeting your goals under different scenarios.

Trading is about finding a high - probability entry scenario in a sea of low - probability ones, sadly, most traders end up taking a lot of low - probability trades and very few high - probability ones.

While simple in design, it offers a lot of useful information based on an analysis of the probabilities of multiple investment scenarios.

Multimeter sea level rise is a lower probability scenario despite having happened in the deglaciation.

No judgment is offered in this report as to the preference for any of the scenarios and they are not assigned probabilities of occurrence

The two future scenarios mentioned in the text (RCP8.5 and RCP2.6) are shown in red and blue, with their «likely» uncertainty range according to the IPCC (meaning a 66 % probability to remain inside this range).

Recall that in their 2001 Third Assessment Report, the IPCC gives a range of temperature increase between 1990 and 2100 of 1.4 and 5.8 ºC based upon the simulated output from 7 different climate models run under 35 different emissions scenarios — each of which the IPCC claimed as having an equal probability of occurrence.

As you point out, the IPCC does not explicitly state that the SRES scenarios all are of equal likelihood, but, given what they do tell us (as you indicated) 1) we should not rely on the frequency distribution to develop probability of occurrence, and 2) «No judgment is offered in this report as to the preference for any of the scenarios and they are not assigned probabilities of occurrence,» it seem to me that the best we can do is to make the simple assumption that they are equally likely (with departures from equal probability randomly distributed).

The unfolding oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico shows what can happen when planners don't adequately consider scenarios in girding against «low probability, high consequence» risks.

«However,» write the authors, «some scenarios in our set bring warming back below 1.5 Celsius by 2100: a first scenario does so with a probability of about 50 percent, and a second scenario with a «likely» chance (better than 66 percent).»

Global average temperature rise is limited to between 2.4 °C (50 % probability) and 2.7 °C (66 % probability) by 2100 in this scenario — far below the BAU trajectory towards 4 °C and beyond used by fossil fuel companies.

According to the assumptions made in the chart, both IEA scenarios equate to a slightly larger carbon budget than the IPCC estimate with the equivalent likelihood / probability attributed to it.

Results from this study suggest a greater than 35 % probability that emissions concentrations will exceed those assumed in the most severe of the available climate change scenarios (RCP 8.5), illustrating particular importance for understanding extreme outcomes.

How can you possibly discuss policies until you know what the range of those «regrets» might be, with associated probabilities attached to the different scenarios in that range.

In situations where probabilities can not be defined, economic analysis can define scenarios that describe a possible set of outcomes for each adaptation measure which meet some criteria of minimum acceptable benefits across a range of scenarios, allowing the decision - maker to explore different levels of acceptable benefits in a systematic waIn situations where probabilities can not be defined, economic analysis can define scenarios that describe a possible set of outcomes for each adaptation measure which meet some criteria of minimum acceptable benefits across a range of scenarios, allowing the decision - maker to explore different levels of acceptable benefits in a systematic wain a systematic way.

Nonetheless, a set of scenarios can not be effectively used to objectively generate a probability distribution for a parameter that is specified in each scenario.

Nevertheless, the «long tail» represents very low probability scenarios even in the IPCC report.