I get what you mean, but if you follow high
probability trades like naked charts aka Price Action shouldn't we expect more than just 2.5 % weekly.
Not exact matches
For example, I
like high
probability trades, which means that I especially
like to
trade during strong breakouts.
I imagine there's a high
probability that Hextall ends up making some kind of
trade with Seattle to pseudo-protect additional players
like Myers.
As traders, it helps to always expect a random outcome from our
trades, even though we may have mastered a high -
probability trading edge
like price action.
However, if that is what you would
like to do, there is a higher -
probability method for
trading these signals on their own, which I will teach you in this article.
You should have images of «ideal» examples of each
trade setup you plan to
trade within your
trading plan, this will help to remind you what high -
probability setups should look
like.
The story typically goes something
like this: A trader does well for a while, sticking to his plan and hitting some nice winners, now his perception of risk in the market has decreased because his confidence has increased, so gradually he starts entering lower and lower
probability trades.
All mobile
trading apps really do is cause traders to look more closely at the intra-day price movement as well as influence a frantic
trading mindset of feeling
like you «always need to be in the market», and so I feel, especially for beginning and struggling traders, mobile
trading is something to be avoided if you want to increase the
probabilities of making consistent money in the market.
Doing so will help you to get «in - tune» with the overall market structure and dynamics and learn to anticipate high -
probability trading scenarios... this is how you
trade like a sniper or
trade like a crocodile, pick your metaphor.
I
like your approach of
trading in terms of
probabilities.
If we have a high -
probability trading edge
like price action Forex strategies, we need to let our edge play out over a large series of
trades to see it work for us properly.
You also need a high -
probability trading edge
like price action.
Being patient while
trading with price action goes something
like this: you see what looks
like a decent pin bar formation but it is going against a rather strong trend, because you know that this setup has a much lower
probability of working out than a pin bar setup with a strongly trending market, you sit on your hands and pass it up, don't think anymore about it, even if it works out it does not matter because you just exercised patience, and you will be rewarded for it the more you use it.
When we combine this knowledge of the power of risk to reward with a high -
probability edge
like price action, what we have is a professional money management and
trading strategy, which when combined with the proper education and discretion will make money over a series of at least 20
trades or more.
Many traders enter low -
probability trades just because they want to
trade, or they feel
like they need to, this thinking will always result in lost money and lost time.
Every trader knows after a little practice and education on a high -
probability trading method
like price action, they can pick near - term market direction with pretty good accuracy, at least enough to get into open profit.
If you'd
like to learn more about how to develop constructive
trading beliefs and how to find high -
probability trading opportunities, checkout my forex
trading course for more information.
So, the sooner you accept that
trading is just a game of
probabilities where the outcome of any setup is never «certain», the sooner you will stop taking low -
probability trades only because you feel
like you are «sure» about what the market will do next.
• Second, make sure you: A) Have a
trading strategy that you know can be a high -
probability trading edge,
like price action
trading strategies, and B) Fully understand how to use this strategy and you've demo
traded it long enough to feel you have «mastered it».
Once you begin to think of patience as the «most important ingredient» to
trading success, and actually understand how and why being a patient trader can actually make you money faster, you will have no problem waiting for the best
trade setups, because you will feel
like you are actually making money by not
trading, which technically you are if it means you are avoiding low -
probability / losing
trades.
Like many of these candlestick reversal signals,
trading the bullish engulfing candlestick pattern is usually more effective, or at least a higher
probability trade, when it follows a sharp decline in price.
Once you learn a high
probability Forex
trading strategy
like price action, you have to know how to manage your
trades after they are live.
Larry has been published extensively, with titles
like How Markets Really Work, Short Term
Trading Strategies That Work, High
Probability ETF
Trading, and The Connors Research
Trading Strategy Series including our latest Guidebook Short Selling Stocks with ConnorsRSI.
That's why many traders turn to specific options strategies to set up higher -
probability / defined - risk
trades specifically designed for markets just
like this.
However,
like other traders, they exercise reasonable discretion about taking
trades with a low
probability of success.
The main selling feature of TradeSpoon is their predictive analytics, which they deploy in a multitude of tools,
like their «Bulls / Bears» ranking system, seasonal charts,
probability calculator, ActiveTrader, ActiveInvestor, Stock / Futures / Forex Forecast Toolbox,
Trade Idea Tool, Stock Focus List, Portfolio Toolbox, and RoboInvestor.
in real life, the larger the deviation from the norm, the larger the
probability of it coming from luck rather than skills... This can be easily verified in stories of very prominent people in
trading rapidly reverting to obscurity,
like the heroes I used to watch in
trading rooms.
Once you have this figure defined you then wait patiently for a high
probability trade signal
like a price action setup, once your desired setup forms in the market you then need to start thinking about risk, not reward just yet.
With the rapidly growing capitalization of publicly
traded marijuana industry companies and the pace of consolidation in that space, a litigated M&A dispute between industry participants was fairly foreseeable, not just because of simple
probabilities but because pot stocks likely get the munchies just
like their customers, and competing pot companies are likely more satisfying for them to consume than Doritos.