This shifting tide means that many referees who are
profitable during the regular season aren't necessarily profitable during the postseason.
After narrowing our scope to focus on underdogs, we found that teams receiving less than 25 % of public bets were actually the most
profitable during the regular season.
Not exact matches
During the
regular season we picked seven games a weekend against the spread as our best bets, and went a comfortably
profitable 54 -43-1 in that span.
We would also recommend narrowing focus onto the officials who have been
profitable during both the
regular season and postseason.
This is particularly interesting because it's the most
profitable month
during the
regular season, however, in the past we've discussed why contrarian betting is particularly lucrative
during the postseason.
Last
season the Warriors went 45 - 36 ATS (55.6 %)
during the
regular season, which made them the third-most
profitable team for bettors.
Trend to know: USC went 3 -9-1 ATS
during the
regular season, losing $ 616 for a $ 100 bettor (sixth - least
profitable FBS team in 2017).
Those same contrarian favorites that have been
profitable during the playoffs have gone 226 - 175 ATS (56.4 %)
during the
regular season.
It's extremely rare to find large favorites being ignored by public bettors
during the
regular season, but we speculated that it would be similarly
profitable.
This falls in line with our past research which indicates that although underdogs are undervalued
during the
regular season, favorites tend to be more
profitable during the postseason.
Although this system alone has proven to be a winning strategy, we wanted to test whether some of the same trends we observed
during the
regular season were
profitable during the preseason.
That's somewhat ironic considering that the Celtics were actually far more
profitable on the road than they were at home
during the
regular season.
A
profitable strategy
during the
regular season is betting against the public.