The study points to China's
projected emissions growth rate of 3.5 percent — following two years of decline — as the single-most important reason for the resumed global emissions growth.
Not exact matches
Experts at the Global Carbon
Project and the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom found
emissions globally could drop as much as 0.6 percent this year — after growing at that
rate in 2014 — a sharp difference from the 2.4 percent annual
growth rate the world has averaged in the past decade.
Environmentalists, many of whom believe that the term «clean coal» is an oxymoron, nonetheless view the
project's cancellation as yet another indication that the Bush administration lacks the commitment required to reduce the
rate of
growth in atmospheric carbon dioxide
emissions.
# 11 Thomas said EIA's International Energy Outlook 2017 (IEO2017) Reference case
projects that energy - related CO2
emissions will grow 0.6 % per year from 2015 to 2040, a slower
rate of
growth than the 1.8 % per year experienced from 1990 to 2015.
And nearly all of the
projected growth rates in
emissions of carbon dioxide (and five other kinds of heat - trapping gases included in the determination) in the next few decades are expected to occur in fast - growing developing countries, led by China and India (which by midcentury is expected to be have more people than China and even today has the population density of Japan).
The largest increases in farm
emissions will probably be in Africa, while the slowest
projected growth rates are in Europe, says the study.
The numbers are striking: in the 1990s, as the market integration
project ramped up, global
emissions were going up an average of 1 percent a year; by the 2000s, with «emerging markets» like China now fully integrated into the world economy,
emissions growth had sped up disastrously, with the annual
rate of increase reaching 3.4 percent a year for much of the decade.
While the above analysis yields good results for by tying past climate change to increases in human CO2
emissions, it should be cautioned that the suggested exponential time relation is not suitable for
projecting the future over longer time periods, because of possible changes in human population
growth rates and absolute limitations on carbon available in remaining fossil fuels.
You have yet to respond specifically to my critique that you left out a key parameter when it comes to
projecting future human
emissions of CO2, namely the
rate of
growth of human population (who are emitting this CO2).
Energy - related CO2
emissions from OECD countries are
projected to be flat from 2015 to 2040 in the IEO2017 Reference case, slightly lower than the annual
rate of
growth from 1990 to 2015 when OECD CO2
emissions increased 0.3 % per year.
In fact, if we continue on our current path of high heat - trapping
emissions, the region is
projected to see forest fires during June and July at two to three times its current
rate.2, 6 Some 1 billion metric tons of organic matter and older -
growth trees could burn7, 15 — accelerating the release of stored carbon and creating a dangerous global warming amplification or feedback loop.5, 14
We're at about 30 billion tons of carbon dioxide
emissions a year — and notwithstanding the global economic slowdown, probably poised to rise 2 % per year (the exact future
growth rate is quite hard to
project because it depends so much on what China does and how quickly peak oil kicks in).
Given the substantial
growth of energy consumption in China, it seems likely that when the global economy improves, the
rate of CO2
emissions may grow even faster than
projected in some of the middle range scenarios.