Sentences with phrase «projected warming rate»

I have no way of knowing the influence of «family relationships» between models, but it is clear that a large part of the apparent correlation of projected warming rate with average surface temperature is due to more runs for some models than for others, combined with the close relationships between certain models.

Not exact matches

Singer, founder of the Science and Environmental Policy Project, concludes that since global warming would raise maximum summer temperatures modestly while raising winter minimum temperatures significantly, it «should help reduce human death rates.»

A new study by NOAA researchers suggests future warming of ocean waters off the Northeastern U.S. may be greater and occur at an even faster rate than previously projected.

Given those findings and the rest of the improved understanding of the climate system, the IPCC projects that if carbon dioxide gas emissions — the primary cause of warming — continue to grow at the recent rate, the world would warm 2oC above 19th - century levels by the middle of this century.

According to the AAAS What We Know report, «The projected rate of temperature change for this century is greater than that of any extended global warming period over the past 65 million years.»

On time - scales of a few decades, the current observed rate of warming can be used to constrain the projected response to a given emissions scenario despite uncertainty in climate sensitivity.

If sustained, the recently reported accelerating rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 indicates we are likely to acheive that projected 3 degree C warming earlier than once thought.

The researchers analysed resting and active jumping oxygen consumption rates in snails exposed to seawater at the normal temperature of 29 °C and at the increased temperature of 34 °C, projected to be reached during the next 100 years due to global warming.

The scientists concluded in the paper that their findings, combined with projected ongoing warming, show that even if rates of climate pollution are reigned in, that «may not be sufficient to avoid significant impacts» of acidification on coral reef regeneration.

Further research will be required to investigate if this fluctuation carries features of projected future climate change and the CO2 growth rate anomaly has been a first indicator of a developing positive feedback between climate warming and the global carbon cycle.

If sustained, the recently reported accelerating rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 indicates we are likely to acheive that projected 3 degree C warming earlier than once thought.

The (apparent) slower rate of projected model warming for a higher absolute temperature may be related to other factors like cloud amount and geographical distribution at higher absolute humidity, or increases in convective transport (due to more atmospheric instability) at higher absolute humidity.

While noisy, the correlation looks significant, with those models that calculate a warmer mean temperature projecting (on average) a lower rate of future warming.

These earlier years, mainly El Nino years, average 11.5 years earlier than the projected recent hottest four, perhaps suggesting a rough calculation of the recent rate of AGW of at +0.16 ºC / decade, this of course the warming trend of peak years through the so - called «hiatus» years and being «peak years», it is a rate which assumes cooler years will be coming along soon.

I was referring to the plot of absolute average surface temperatures from different models against the projected rate of warming for 2011 to 2070 from those same models; this is the next to last graphic from Gavin's post.

The IPCC most - likely future projected moderate acceleration of sea - level rise in a warming world, but still a slow rate of change compared to the fastest rates we can envision.

The IPCC TAR Scenario A2 projected rate of warming from 1990 to 2012 was 0.16 °C per decade.

In the future, Earth's plants should be able to successfully adjust their physiology to accommodate a warming of the magnitude and rate - of - rise that is typically predicted by climate models to accompany the projected future increase in the air's CO2 content.

Figure 10: IPCC FAR (yellow) SAR (blue), and TAR (red) projected rates of warming vs. observations (black) from 1990 through 2012.

The IPCC AR4 Scenario A2 projected rate of warming from 2000 to 2012 was 0.18 °C per decade.

The IPCC SAR IS92a projected rate of warming from 1990 to 2012 was 0.14 °C per decade.

Tamino at the Open Mind blog has also compared the rates of warming projected by the FAR, SAR, and TAR (estimated by linear regression) to the observed rate of warming in each global surface temperature dataset.

The IPCC AR4 «projected» that it is «very unlikely» that warming would be less than 1.1 deg.C over the coming century, and said it is «very likely» that the rate of warming would be «2 deg.C per decade».

«Using the IPCC warming rate for our demonstration, we projected the rate successively over a period analogous to that envisaged in their scenario of exponential CO2 growth — the years 1851 to 1975.

At this computer - predicted «hot spot» high above the Earth, the UN's models project that greenhouse warming will cause temperature to rise over the decades at a rate up to three times faster than at the surface.»

If our climate continues to warm at today's rate, scientists expect North Sea plankton that respond to temperature cues to bloom even earlier in the coming decades.7 With a growing mismatch in life cycles among various species of plankton, as well as further climate - induced shifts in their abundance and distribution, effects on the North Sea ecosystem — including cod — are projected to be considerable.7, 8

Climate scientists Michael Oppenheimer and Kevin Trenberth also took issue with Koonin's assertion about the impact of human activity, saying, Warming is well beyond natural climate variability and projected rates of change are potentially faster than ecosystems, farmers and societies can adapt to without major disruptions.

Dana: «Climate scientists Michael Oppenheimer and Kevin Trenberth also took issue with Koonin's assertion about the impact of human activity, saying, Warming is well beyond natural climate variability and projected rates of change are potentially faster than ecosystems, farmers and societies can adapt to without major disruptions.

Drought is expected to occur 20 - 40 percent more often in most of Australia over the coming decades.6, 18 If our heat - trapping emissions continue to rise at high rates, 19 more severe droughts are projected for eastern Australia in the first half of this century.6, 17 And droughts may occur up to 40 percent more often in southeast Australia by 2070.2 Unless we act now to curb global warming emissions, most regions of the country are expected to suffer exceptionally low soil moisture at almost double the frequency that they do now.3 Studies suggest that climate change is helping to weaken the trade winds over the Pacific Ocean, with the potential to change rainfall patterns in the region, including Australia.20, 21,16,22

It adopted a moderate anthro - emissions scenario from AR4 as the AGW input, but set arbitrary constraints on its findings by excluding the greenhouse gas outputs» warming from the assessment of the permafrost's rate of melting, and by assuming that only CO2 was emitted - which allowed the projected future output to be stated in simple carbon tonnage.

It could be due to a range of factors, the scientists say, from «a well - financed opposition» to the Cape Wind project on Cape Cod, to increasing public awareness and concern about changing climate and «global warming,» to health impacts and the recent electricity rate hikes in Delaware.

That list rated carbon - intensive resources or projects that could single - handedly pour enough carbon dioxide into the atmosphere to push the Earth's temperature above the catastrophic warming limit of 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

I say «more or less» because one could argue from the data (as we'll see below) that the warming rate during recent years has upticked with the warmth in 2010 indicating a warming that is occurring faster than projected and is accelerating.

Now, while it's likely that real scientists included the necessary caveats buried in the depths of their papers, we all know that, during the» 90's, the entire «global warming» thing was framed around the rate of «warming» then being projected out to 2100 or so.

A comprehensive new scientific report has warned that Australia faces a temperature rise of more than 5 °C by the end of the century, outstripping the rate of warming projected for the rest of the world, unless drastic action is taken to slash global greenhouse gas emissions.

The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge, 996 pp, 2007), climate models project a fast rate of southwestern warming accompanied by devastating droughts (Seager et al. in Science 316:1181 — 1184, 2007; Williams et al. in Nat Clim Chang, 2012).

The models are in better agreement when projecting changes in hurricane precipitation — almost all existing studies project greater rainfall rates in hurricanes in a warmer climate, with projected increases of about 20 % averaged near the center of hurricanes.

Climatologists differ on the various causes of climate change, the rate at which the earth is warming, the effect of man - made emissions on warming, the most accurate climate data and temperature sets to use, and the accuracy of climate models projecting decades and centuries into the future.

«With some level of warming and sea level rise already in the pipeline no matter what we do, we won't see a reduction in impacts or even a sudden levelling - off — impacts are projected to increase at the same rate in all scenarios for the next couple of decades or so, and after that they merely increase more slowly in the deep emissions cuts scenarios,» Betts told Mongabay.

«Climate science» as it is used by warmists implies adherence to a set of beliefs: (1) Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will warm the Earth's surface and atmosphere; (2) Human production of CO2 is producing significant increases in CO2 concentration; (3) The rate of rise of temperature in the 20th and 21st centuries is unprecedented compared to the rates of change of temperature in the previous two millennia and this can only be due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations; (4) The climate of the 19th century was ideal and may be taken as a standard to compare against any current climate; (5) global climate models, while still not perfect, are good enough to indicate that continued use of fossil fuels at projected rates in the 21st century will cause the CO2 concentration to rise to a high level by 2100 (possibly 700 to 900 ppm); (6) The global average temperature under this condition will rise more than 3 °C from the late 19th century ideal; (7) The negative impact on humanity of such a rise will be enormous; (8) The only alternative to such a disaster is to immediately and sharply reduce CO2 emissions (reducing emissions in 2050 by 80 % compared to today's rate) and continue further reductions after 2050; (9) Even with such draconian CO2 reductions, the CO2 concentration is likely to reach at least 450 to 500 ppm by 2100 resulting in significant damage to humanity; (10) Such reductions in CO2 emissions are technically feasible and economically affordable while providing adequate energy to a growing world population that is increasingly industrializing.

[But I interpret the IPCC statement, For the next two decades, a warming of 0.2 °C per decade is projected» to mean exactly what it says, i.e. each of the next two decades is projected to warm at a rate of 0.2 °C per decade.]

Some parts of the ocean are warming less rapidly than we thought, and the overall rate of warming is less than the models projected (modeled, etc..)

The bases for all three «scenarios» were clearly spelled out by Hansen at the time, and the one that comes closest on CO2 emissions is «Scenario A», with the highest projected rate of warming.

The models never under - projected the rate of warming.

So apparently you are pretty much certain that the rate of anthropogenc CO2 - caused warming over the past 5 or 6 decades would not = more than 50 % of warming if projected on a centennial scale (so certain that it would be «foolish» to think otherwise)... but the effect that you do think is attributable to anthropogenic CO2 will obviously increase proportional to a greater rate of CO2 emissions.

Spatial shifts of marine species due to projected warming will cause high - latitude invasions and high local - extinction rates in the tropics and semi-enclosed seas (medium confidence).

Elevated sea temperatures drive impacts such as mass coral bleaching and mortality (very high confidence), with an analysis of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble projecting the loss of coral reefs from most sites globally by 2050 under mid to high rates of ocean warming (very likely).

So, given the rate of recent warming projected to a centennial scale, would a rate of 3.0 °C dominate before we run out according to Max's unquestionable calculations?

The significance of the hiatus is that it contradicted the 2007 assessment report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which projected a rate of warming of 0.2 °C per decade in the early part of the 21st century.

In addition, the rate of warming over the 21st century is projected to be far faster than has occurred over such periods since the end of the last glacial period, again long before societal development.