The IPCC model
projections of future warming based on the varios SRES and human emissions only (both GHG warming and aerosol cooling, but no natural influences) are shown in Figure 6.
Not exact matches
Despite these challenges, many
future projections based on high - resolution models suggest that anthropogenic
warming may cause tropical storms globally to be more intense on average (with intensity increases
of 2 — 11 % by 2100).
«
Future projections based on theory and high - resolution dynamical models consistently suggest that greenhouse
warming will cause the globally averaged intensity
of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms,» Knutson et al. (2010); Grinsted et al. (2013) projected «a twofold to sevenfold increase in the frequency
of Katrina magnitude events for a 1 °C rise in global temperature.»
«
Future generations will wonder in bemused amazement that the early 21st century's developed world went into hysterical panic over a globally averaged temperature increase
of a few tenths
of a degree, and, on the
basis of gross exaggerations
of highly uncertain computer
projections combined into implausible chains
of inference, proceeded to contemplate a roll - back
of the industrial age,» Lindzen was quoted, offering praise for Christopher C. Horner's Politically Incorrect Guide to Global
Warming and Environmentalism.
Roy Spencer's statement that
projections of human - caused
warming in the
future could be slashed by 50 % is not logical or
based on the trends we've seen.
And the longer this «pause» in
warming continues while GHG emissions continue unabated, the more «uncertain» become the model -
based attribution estimates
of IPCC and, hence, the
projections for the
future.
However,
future projections based on theory and high - resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse
warming will cause the globally averaged intensity
of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases
of 2 — 11 % by 2100.
This suggests that IPCC
projections of future global
warming, which are
based on various possible human greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, are reliable.
The projected
future warming projections (for the end
of this century) have been reduced a bit, starting from essentially the same
base (AR5: 1986 - 2005 = +0.26 °C versus AR4: 1980 - 1999 = +0.23 °C):
Africa's climate is
warmer than it was 100 years ago and model -
based projections of future greenhouse gas induced climate change for the continent project that this
warming will continue, and in most scenarios, accelerate (Hulme et al. 2001; Christensen et al. 2007).