The research underlying that concept showed that the carbon embedded in
proven fossil fuel reserves on the books of fossil fuel companies is many times greater than what climate scientists have determined the atmosphere can withstand in a safe climate scenario.
They have also calculated that to avoid surpassing that limit, less than a third of existing
proven fossil fuel reserves can be exploited.
Well, there is a lot of magical thinking built into the models, from unrealistic emission scenarios that disregard
proven fossil fuel reserves, to made up sensitivity values from overestimated aerosol forcings and underestimated solar forcings, and made up feedbacks.
«At a time when science is crystal clear that we need to leave most
proven fossil fuel reserves in the ground, anything that makes further exploration and development more profitable — like this EU proposal — is totally irresponsible.»
Collectively, the world's
proven fossil fuel reserves as we know them today would generate close to 3,000 billion metric tons of CO2 — many times over the safe limit.
In order to limit global warming to an average of no more than 2 degrees Celsius, the official UN climate target, the equivalent of 2230 gigatonnes CO2 of
proven fossil fuel reserves should remain in the ground, a report published... Continue reading →
Reducing fossil fuel emissions to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius or less means that a huge amount of
proven fossil fuel reserves will need to stay in the ground.
Not exact matches
A script pulled out the direct
fossil fuel investments using the Carbon Underground 200 that identifies the top 100 public coal companies globally and the top 100 public oil and gas companies globally, ranked by the potential carbon emissions content of their
proven reserves.
The new IPCC report shows that we must keep roughly 80 - to - 95 % of
proven reserves of
fossil fuels in the ground if we want a decent shot at avoiding catastrophe.
Lost in the effort to understand the vast implications is an even more important signal sent by Saudi Arabia, the owner of more than 16 % of the world's
proved oil
reserves, about its view of the future of
fossil fuels.
The combination of needing to limit carbon dioxide emissions and having
fossil fuel companies that are valued by their
proven reserves is what Carbon Tracker, a non-profit organization, is calling the «Carbon Bubble» in their new report, «Unburnable carbon 2013: Wasted capital and stranded assets.»
Wiki also has estimates with data from several sources; these lie well below the WEC estimate of «inferred total
fossil fuel resources», which I cited (and which is several times higher than the «
proven recoverable
reserves» estimate).
So, it is disconcerting that the total
proven international
reserves account for 2,860 gigatons of carbon dioxide just as the largest
fossil fuel companies will continue to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on developing new
reserves.
The World Energy Council has recently issued a report listing the
proven reserves of all
fossil fuels as well as the inferred possible total resources in place on this planet.
The World Energy Council published a report in 2010, which summarized not only the
proven reserves of all
fossil fuels (oil, natural gas and coal), but also gave estimates for the «inferred possible total resources in place» for these
fossil fuels.
Rather than finding ways to curtail
fossil fuel production in line with the demands of climate science, the U.S. federal government, under President Obama's «All of the Above» energy strategy, is currently channeling more than $ 5 billion each year in exploration subsidies to actually expand
proven reserves, leading to the discovery of
fossil fuels that we know we should never burn.
yes, 2,795 is the number of gigatons of carbon already contained in the
proven coal and oil and gas
reserves in the hands of
fossil -
fuel companies and petrostates.
In a Wall Street Journal opinion piece, Nancy Meyer and Lysle Brinker of HIS consulting and research argue that while although only 24 percent of
fossil fuels reserves by volume are
proven, those
proven reserves account for 81 percent of the company's valuations by investors.
As the International Energy Agency warned, â $ œno more than one - third of
proven reserves of
fossil fuels can be consumed prior to 2050â $ â $» unless carbon capture and storage technology is widely deployed â $» otherwise weâ $ ™ ll bust through the limit of a 2 degree Celsius rise in average temperature that climate scientists believe will unleash truly disruptive ice melt, sea level rise and weather extremes.
IEA: «No more than one - third of
proven reserves of
fossil fuels can be consumed prior to 2050 if the world is to achieve the 2 °C goal, unless carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is widely deployed.»
It does so by going beyond the now classic Carbon Tracker analysis (the foundation of McKibben's 2012 article), updating it by focusing not on the entire body of
fossil -
fuel reserves, but on the smaller set (roughly 30 % of the «
proven»
reserves) of
reserves that have already been «developed» — the «oil fields, gas fields, and coal mines that are already in operation or under construction.»
The five accessible reservoirs are the atmosphere, the land plants, the topsoil in which land plants grow, the surface layer of the ocean in which ocean plants grow, and our
proved reserves of
fossil fuels.
The issue of the bubble arises because the combined
proven oil, gas and coal
reserves currently on the books of
fossil fuel companies (and governments in the case of NOCs) will produce far more than this amount of CO2 when consumed.
Although solar (mainly PV) is the largest single energy source by that time, total carbon consumed through
fossil fuel use amounts to 800 billion tonnes carbon by the end of the century, just a bit less than current
proven reserves (900 billion tonnes as indicated above).
Shell: «The issue of the bubble arises because the combined
proven oil, gas and coal
reserves currently on the books of
fossil fuel companies (and governments in the case of NOCs) will produce far more than this amount of CO2 when consumed.»
Publicly - listed companies that explore for and produce
fossil fuels are required to report their
proven reserves because of the expected value that those
reserves will obtain from being sold into the marketplace and consumed.
Do you really not understand the motivation for
fossil fuel companies to keep the value of their
proven reserves from going to zero, tomthegreekguy?
But in the last decade, the world's commercially viable («
proven»)
fossil fuel reserves have increased: coal
reserves have declined, but oil and gas
reserves have more than made up for it.