In addition, land stations are allowed to
provide temperature estimates for ocean cells where no sea surface temperature is available - in practice, this means that coastal stations around the Arctic provide temperature readings for the pole.
Not exact matches
Several of the team, including Smith, Hillenbrand and Kuhn, are now are working on a new project to
provide estimates of ocean
temperatures during this time interval.
To
estimate the
temperature at various depths (from 3,500 m to 9,500 m depth) the researchers have used the heat flow and
temperatures at 1,000 m and 2,000 m
provided in the Atlas of Geothermal Resources in Europe, as well as thermal data of the land surface available from NASA.
[Response: The AWS records useful because they
provide a totally independent
estimate of the spatial covariance pattern in the
temperature field (which we primarily get from satellites).
Milloy and Monckton (whoever they are) have used the S - B formula to
provide a decent «back of the envelope»
estimate to the
temperature increase in response to more CO2.
First, it
provides a compilation of global trends in glacier terminus positions since 1600 A.D. Second, it uses this compilation to create a new
estimate of global
temperature change.
Thompson et al. do not
provide a time series
estimate on the effects of the bias on the global
temperature record, but Steve McIntyre, who is building an impressive track record of analyses outside the peer - review system, discussed this topic on his weblog
It's incredibly hypocritical of global warming denialists to whine that compilations of global
temperature anomaly like GISTEMP have large distances between recording stations and this makes them an inaccurate
estimate of global anomaly and then we have a global warming denialist extraordinaire, Roberts, claim that a SINGLE locality, Central England, can
provide an adequate
estimate of global anomaly.
Secondly it seems really important to me for the wider discussion (beyond just the topic of this thread) that some
estimate of the «uncertain» potentiating effect of predicted
temperature increases be
provided and integrated with the climate sensitivity predictions so that we can have a statement that actually attempts to predict possible real world
temperature increases.
Milloy and Monckton (whoever they are) have used the S - B formula to
provide a decent «back of the envelope»
estimate to the
temperature increase in response to more CO2.
A more complete network would mitigate the need for statistical infilling for future
temperature estimates and
provide a firmer statistical basis for infilling the older, missing portions of the record.
As to the technical parts, as described in many sources, we have lots of paleothermometers for the central Greenland ice cores over the last 100,000 years,
providing multiple validation and high confidence that
temperatures have been
estimated accurately.
For example, if this contribution were to grow linearly with global average
temperature change, the upper ranges of sea level rise for SRES scenarios shown in Table SPM - 3 would increase by 0.1 m to 0.2 m. Larger values can not be excluded, but understanding of these effects is too limited to assess their likelihood or
provide a best
estimate or an upper bound for sea level rise.
The system can
provide an
estimate for that station's location on that day, but it is not used in any calculation for any other
temperature.
From Figure 1 it looks as though a window of no more than 120 months, and preferably only 60 months is desirable to capture the changing distribution of
temperature anomalies, however a shorter window may not
provide enough data to reliably
estimate the uncertainty.
Coverage bias
estimates are shown for both HadCRUT versions using the GISTEMP land - ocean series and the UAH series to
provide the
temperature maps.
A paper in this week's Nature by Caroline Snyder at Stanford
provides a fresh attempt at
estimating global average surface
temperatures across the Pleistocene (her
estimates cover the last 2 million years).
Christy said his approach, which relies on observations from satellites and balloons, is more systematic and global than the
estimates provided in the surface -
temperature studies.
Global average
temperatures are also
estimated using reanalysis systems, which use a weather forecasting system to combine many sources of data to
provide a more complete picture of global
temperatures.
The resulting relationship is consistent and indicates that on - site
temperature provides a good
estimate of ablation over a multi-week period regardless of location at a Snotel site or on a glacier.
First, it
provides a preliminary
estimate of anticipated reductions in
temperatures per 100 PgC CO2,
providing a guide to policymakers who might contemplate more limited uses of negative emissions strategies than contemplated in this study.
Together, the hemispheric values
provide an
estimate of global average
temperature.
The Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM / I) radiometers
provide brightness
temperatures at three different frequencies (19.35, 37.0 and 85.5 GHz) from which are
estimated: wind speed when not raining, integrated atmospheric water vapor content, liquid water content, and a rain index.
Good enough models may eventually
provide an
estimate of the effect of CO2 on recent surface
temperature changes.
Finally, the
estimates of biases and other uncertainties presented here should not be interpreted as
providing a comprehensive
estimate of uncertainty in historical sea - surface
temperature measurements.
The two most commonly cited
estimates of
temperature in the troposphere based on satellite data are
provided on an ongoing basis by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) and University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH).
Choice 3: Can we devise a carbon tax flexible enough to deal with the above uncertainties that: a) is fully refunded to every citizen and exporters, b) collected from importers, c) rises exponentially with future
temperature change, d) responds to the willingness and effectiveness of other nations to limit their emissions, and e)
provides reasonable economic incentives to reduce emissions if the IPCC's central
estimates are correct?
The Christy et al (2018) paper discussed in this Research Report does
provide lower
temperature linear trend positive slope
estimates than do many other researchers.
For reasons that Neal has touched on (in particular, the beneficial cancellation that occurs in «crossing the river twice»), the best strategy for
estimating the component of UHI in
estimated global
temperature trends during the last 50 years is likely not the same strategy as is needed to
provide insight into the physics of UHI.
To this end, Skeptical Science is
providing a tool to
estimate temperature trends and uncertainties, along with an introduction to the concepts involved.
An independent
estimate of global - mean evaporation
provides additional support, but critical assumptions on relative humidity and the air - sea
temperature difference changes are made that do not have adequate observational basis and are inconsistent with climate models.»
They are
providing an
estimate of
temperature along a big slice of lower atmosphere, where the others are doing air
temperature about 2m above the surface.
UPDATE: John Nielson Gammon
provides additional information and links to source materials for his
estimate that summer
temperatures in Texas will be ~ 115 F Now what could possibly be as annoying as Drudge's siren hailing the latest development in the Wegman scandal?
Optimal fingerprinting
provides observationally constrained
estimates of the global
temperature response to external forcings from which regional information is extracted.
Satellites do, however,
provide valuable
estimates of the
temperature in the upper atmosphere and they deliver global coverage, with only small gaps at the poles.
Estimates of natural variability from an AOGCM provide a critical input in deriving, by comparing temperature estimates from the simple model with observations, a likelihood function for the parameters jointly at each possible combination of parameter settings (and in one or two cases AOGCMs provide surrogates for some of the observation
Estimates of natural variability from an AOGCM
provide a critical input in deriving, by comparing
temperature estimates from the simple model with observations, a likelihood function for the parameters jointly at each possible combination of parameter settings (and in one or two cases AOGCMs provide surrogates for some of the observation
estimates from the simple model with observations, a likelihood function for the parameters jointly at each possible combination of parameter settings (and in one or two cases AOGCMs
provide surrogates for some of the observational data).
But the IPCC does
provide estimates of these two values —
temperature change and energy change — over the past century or so.
The GISTEMP dataset
provides gridded global
temperature estimates covering almost the entire planet over recent decades: This data allows us to
estimate the effect of poor coverage in the other datasets.
Sections 2 and 3 at the same link
provide estimates of the timing and extent of the coming cooling based on the natural 60 and 1000 year periodicities in the
temperature data and using the 10be and neutron count data as the most useful proxy for solar activity.
A conservative
estimate is that a 0.1 percent change in solar total radiation will bring about a
temperature response of 0.06 to 0.2 °C,
providing the change persists long enough for the climate system to adjust.
Additionally, such an observing system, by measuring the temporal and spatial variability of the AMOC for approximately a decade, would
provide essential ground truth to AMOC model
estimates and would also yield insight into whether AMOC changes or other atmospheric / oceanic variability have the dominant impact on interannual sea surface
temperature (SST) variability.
These data
provide an important observational constraint on
estimates of radiative forcing and
temperature response.
The same posts
provides estimates of a possible coming cooling based on the reasonable supposition that the current
temperature peak is a more or less synchronous peak in the 60 and 960 year quasi - periodicities.
How could the IPCC
provide an
estimate of human contribution to
temperature changes if they did not also
provide an
estimate of climate sensitivity?
ACORN - SAT and the Bureau's real - time high - resolution
temperature analyses are aimed at
providing much more information than just an
estimate of Australian annual - mean
temperatures.
The satellite - based microwave sounding unit (MSU)
temperature record
provides recent
estimates of
temperatures over Australia, with records starting in the late - 1970s.
Satellite data
provide a bulk
estimate of
temperature in the height range of one to ten kilometres above the surface, and so are not directly comparable to
temperatures at the surface.
This will hopefully
provide a new, publicly accessible database of
estimated historic daily
temperatures since 1911 at more than 700 Australian weather stations.
`... over the 100 years since 1870 the successive five year values of average
temperatures in England have been highly significantly correlated with the best
estimates of the averages for the whole Northern Hemisphere and for the whole earth» (In this last comment he is no doubt referring to his work at CRU where global surface records back to 1860 or so were eventually gathered) he continued; «they probably mean that over the last three centuries the CET
temperatures provide a reasonable indication of the tendency of the global climatic regime.»
Furthermore, these two independent proxies effectively yield the same
temperature estimate (Table 1),
providing greater confidence in our
estimates of appreciably warmer
temperatures in the Arctic during the Pliocene.