Sentences with phrase «provided uncertainty estimates»

In addition to developing maps of near - surface permafrost distributions, the researchers developed maps of maximum thaw depth, or active - layer depth, and provided uncertainty estimates.

We can apply my simpler bias analysis (which we can now see is limited in that it does not provide an uncertainty estimate for the estimated bias) to HadCRUT3 / 4.

Not exact matches

Home birth is uncommon in the United Kingdom and uncertainty exists about its safety.1 2 Almost all mortality figures available nationally1 provide merely a single global figure for planned and unplanned home births, though the constituent rates differ greatly.3 The only recent figures for planned home birth in England and Wales relating to 19794 and 19935 provide an inaccurately low estimate of risk because it was not possible to account for those mothers who originally booked to have a home delivery but ended up delivering in hospital.

Two of these reviews produce summary measures suggesting parent training programmes have a significant positive effect in crime prevention [12] and for non-compliant children [13] although this latter review does not provide any indication of the uncertainty of the effect estimate.

Also, the model - based approach includes measures of uncertainty about our population estimates, which are not usually provided by more common approaches and are crucial for understanding the level of confidence we have about our estimates.»

The researchers note that the most likely response from industry will involve a combination of the approaches outlined in the study, and although there is a high level of uncertainty in the estimates, the findings provide much needed evidence on the relative effects of different industry responses, and the possible magnitude of health outcomes.

These confidence limits assume that the overall risk for a given individual is provided by our estimates and should not be interpreted as measuring the overall uncertainty in the absolute risk estimates, as shown in Table 5.

The estimated size of and uncertainty in current observed warming rates attributable to human influence thus provides a relatively model - independent estimate of uncertainty in multi-decade projections under most scenarios.

Data sources for these estimates and uncertainties are provided elsewhere [64].

Such exercises also provide an estimate of the uncertainty in the reconstruction, which informs comparisons of recent instrumental changes with the longer - term reconstruction.

The estimated size of and uncertainty in current observed warming rates attributable to human influence thus provides a relatively model - independent estimate of uncertainty in multi-decade projections under most scenarios.

Such determinations require careful, quantitative analyses involving forcings estimates and reconstructions, and are fraught with limitations owing to uncertainties in both the forcing estimates and reconstructions — an excellent discussion is provided in this manuscript by Waple et al and references therein.

It is neither an academic review, nor a plan for a new research programme Uncertainties attach to almost every aspect of the issue, yet policymakers are looking for clear guidance from scientists, hence authors have been asked to provide their best - estimates wherever possible, together with an assessment of the uUncertainties attach to almost every aspect of the issue, yet policymakers are looking for clear guidance from scientists, hence authors have been asked to provide their best - estimates wherever possible, together with an assessment of the uncertaintiesuncertainties.

Some of these Parties indicated that the high level of uncertainty was an obstacle to presenting reliable estimates in their first communications, although a number of Parties provided first - time or updated estimates for land - use change and forestry during the in - depth reviews.

Such ensembles could provide a misleading estimate of forecast uncertainty because they do not systematically explore modelling uncertainty (Allen et al., 2002; Allen and Stainforth, 2002).

From Figure 1 it looks as though a window of no more than 120 months, and preferably only 60 months is desirable to capture the changing distribution of temperature anomalies, however a shorter window may not provide enough data to reliably estimate the uncertainty.

The SASBE could, for example, be used to constrain a radiative transfer model to provide top - of - the - atmosphere radiances with traceable uncertainty estimates.

Climate Science can not even provide us with a reasonable estimate of the uncertainty.

Uncertainty estimates provided with data sets have sometimes been difficult to use, or easy to use inappropriately.

It is hoped that providing these 100 realisations in a form identical to the median estimate will encourage users to explore the sensitivity of their analysis to observational uncertainty with little extra effort.

Finally, the estimates of biases and other uncertainties presented here should not be interpreted as providing a comprehensive estimate of uncertainty in historical sea - surface temperature measurements.

Regional Outlook contributions can help shed light on the uncertainties associated with the estimates in the Pan-Arctic Outlook by providing more detail at the regional scale.

The impact of the NAO on winter sea levels provides an additional uncertainty of 0.1 to 0.2 m to these estimates (Hulme et al., 2002; Tsimplis et al., 2004a).

Choice 3: Can we devise a carbon tax flexible enough to deal with the above uncertainties that: a) is fully refunded to every citizen and exporters, b) collected from importers, c) rises exponentially with future temperature change, d) responds to the willingness and effectiveness of other nations to limit their emissions, and e) provides reasonable economic incentives to reduce emissions if the IPCC's central estimates are correct?

Where provided, the uncertainty estimates are close to 0.5 million square kilometers.

The regional outlook contributions can help shed light on the uncertainties associated with the estimates in the pan-arctic outlook by providing more detail at the regional scale.

The standard deviation of the ensemble is 0.38 million km2 which we provide as uncertainty estimate of the prediction.

These NAO «book - ends» provide an estimate of the 5 — 95 % range of uncertainty in projected trends due to internal variability of the NAO based on observations superimposed upon model estimates of human - induced climate change.

Despite the considerable uncertainty associated with the reservoir - specific GHG emission estimates synthesized here, we argue that these data provide a low - end estimate of global emissions.

The dots are the outlook estimates themselves and the intervals are the uncertainty ranges provided by the groups.

To this end, Skeptical Science is providing a tool to estimate temperature trends and uncertainties, along with an introduction to the concepts involved.

While I routinely use estimates to provide a basis for solving a problem, I have never and would never use them to define a problem due to the uncertainty in the underlying information.

Further discussion of the uncertainties inherent in these estimates is provided in chapters 6 — 9.

It's clear that John Kennedy and other scientists who have worked on the issue have learned much, but it's likely that there remain opportunities for further science that will improve the understanding and provide better estimates both for SST and in particular for the related uncertainties.

Some discussion is provided on how to practically estimate the climate modelling uncertainty based on an ensemble of opportunity.

Data sources for these estimates and uncertainties are provided elsewhere [64].

The year was 0.14 °C — 0.17 °C above the 1981 — 2010 average, depending on the dataset considered, which provides some estimate of «measurement uncertainty» (Table 2.1)

al. (2013) provides a best estimate of TCR = 1.3 o C with an uncertainty range of 0.9 — 2o C.

It's important to note Jason - 1 provides an estimate of sea level with an uncertainty of 3 - 4 mm.

Energy budget estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) are derived based on the best estimates and uncertainty ranges for forcing provided in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Scientific Report (AR5).

Variance and uncertainty is too often ignored (for example the NCDC website doesn't even provide error estimates or confidence intervals for their trends.)

Energy budget estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) are derived using the comprehensive 1750 — 2011 time series and the uncertainty ranges for forcing components provided in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Working Group I Report, along with its estimates of heat accumulation in the climate system.

Using 1859 — 1882 for the base period and 1995 — 2011 for the final period, thus avoiding major volcanic activity, median estimates are derived for ECS of 1.64 K and for TCR of 1.33 K. ECS 17 — 83 and 5 — 95 % uncertainty ranges are 1.25 — 2.45 and 1.05 — 4.05 K; the corresponding TCR ranges are 1.05 — 1.80 and 0.90 — 2.50 K. Results using alternative well - matched base and final periods provide similar best estimates but give wider uncertainty ranges, principally reflecting smaller changes in average forcing.

Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of seasonal sea ice cover.»

Bottom: Provided for reference, estimated amount of carbon that would warm the planet approximately 2 °C (Allen et al., 2009; uncertainty estimate in this value discussed in this reference) and estimated total amount of carbon to be released by the year 2100 under business - as - usual scenarios (IPCC, 2007c).

CLIMDEX Project The CLIMDEX project produces and provides datasets of climate extremes, using a suite of 27 climate extremes indices that were formulated by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices.CLIMDEX provides climate researchers with easy access to datasets, detailed information about their construction, software, trend maps, time series and uncertainty estimates.

Any mismatch provides an estimate of the uncertainty of the estimates of sea level change.

The regional outlook contributions help shed light on the uncertainties associated with the Pan-Arctic estimates by providing more detail at the regional scale, and were based on numerical models, statistical methods, and heuristic estimates.

«The uncertainty that arises from comparison of various models is compounded by the fact that instrumental records of ENSO are not sufficient - ly long to test the accuracy of any given model performance; these records are simply not long enough to provide robust estimates of natural ENSO variability.»

A major goal of climate modeling is to provide better estimates of ECS and its uncertainty.