Filtering this even further and solely betting against teams receiving 80 % or more of
public betting action produced a slightly less profit of +20.44 units, but the massive reduction in the number of games bet more than doubles the ROI to 9.2 % at this level.
Lopsided
public betting action causes bloated moneylines, leaving a lot of money on the table for bettors willing to go against the grain and taking the other side.
Not exact matches
To keep tabs on all of this week's
action, make sure to visit our new free NFL odds page to view odds,
public betting trends, injuries and more.
In today's NBA
betting action, the lower - ranked seeds are at home — but are still not gaining the respect of the
public bettors.
Although we constantly preach the value of
betting against the
public, contrarian bettors may want to think twice before going against the sharp
action tonight.
Today is the NBA All - Star Game, and the team at SportsInsights notes that the game is currently seeing some lopsided
betting action: The
public is currently taking the East over the West at a rate of...
In NHL
action, please check out Sports Insights research on «
betting against the
Public» in hockey.
During the regular season, sportsbooks almost always adjust their lines based on the
action of their sharpest bettors, and they won't move the number based on
public money unless there's a marquee matchup with one - sided
public betting and limited sharp
action on the other side.
While the
betting percentages were close, it's safe to say the slight majority of the
betting public took the Chiefs, especially since these numbers reflect weeks of wagering
action.
Sports Insights typically focuses on games that are capturing a lot of
public attention — with lopsided
betting action.
«[
Betting has been] largely one - sided
action on the Cavs as we have almost 85 percent of the
public wagers on the visitors.
Thursday night's game is already attracting a lot of
betting activity — and the
action is lopsided, with a large point spread growing because the
Public loves the Steelers at home.
Although Game 2 has lopsided
betting (which we like), the
bet count is so low that we would suggest laying off because there isn't enough
public action to warrant a «fade the
public» play.
According to our Sharp
Action Report (available to Sportsbook Insider Advantage subscribers), the
public may be coming in hard on the Eagles, but sharp bettors have consistently bought back the value with the Cowboys, making it most popular
bet among professionals so far this week.
Despite that
public betting, the Wizards actually moved from -5 to -6 in early
action.
In early
betting action, the
public doesn't mind giving that many points, with both heavy home favorites gathering more than two - thirds of the
bets.
This
action appears largely due to
public perception since the Clippers are currently receiving 40 % of spread
bets.
Even though the return on investment (ROI) steadily climbs as we look at increasingly one - sided
public action,
betting against the
public isn't profitable unless the team is receiving less than 25 % of spread
bets.
USC / Notre Dame is the most
bet game of the weekend, and we've seen heavy
public action on both Notre Dame and the Under.
In order for
betting against the
public to be an effective strategy, oddsmakers need to take enough
action on one side to warrant a line move.
However, a small conference matchup will receive limited
action, and oddsmakers have no incentive to adjust their lines based on one - sided
public betting since there's so little liability.
This gives bettors a good indication of where sharps are
betting, and it also helps distinguish sharp vs.
public action when these lines are available around the entire market during the season.
Betting market: Despite the move from -7 to -8.5, there's not much to talk about in terms of sharp or
public action.
With the influx of
public money (as opposed to sharp
action) producing an inflated line, we're happy to grab the extra two points of value created by the lopsided
betting.
There's far more value
betting against the
public in heavily
bet games, and there's far more
action during the NBA Finals than any other round.
At Sports Insights, we have two core
betting philosophies: fade the
public and follow sharp
action.
Based on this
public betting, you would assume that oddsmakers would move the line to +8.5 or +9 to encourage more
action on the Liberty.
Most of our contributing books show the majority of
bets on NYY, but Carib is reporting heavy
public action on HOU.
In some heavily
bet games with one - sided
public action, sportsbooks will also adjust their numbers.
Since 2003 the Cardinals have never received more than 79 % of spread
bets, however, they're currently receiving 77 % of
public action.
Oklahoma City opened as a 3.5 - point favorite at Pinnacle, and the Thunder have received the majority of
public action with 63 % of spread
bets coming in on the home favorite.
Comparing these two tables, it becomes quickly apparent that
public bettors are far more likely to back visitors in heavily
bet games whereas they overwhelmingly take home teams in games with minimal
action.
The
betting public is jumping on that trend and Sports Insights»
betting percentages have captured this NBA marketplace
action.
Bet Against the
Public Follow the Sharp
Action Betting Against the
Public is pretty simple.
Betting market: The Chargers and Chiefs have both gotten steamed when they reached +1, revealing that this game is drawing two - way sharp
action with no
public consensus to speak of.
In addition, our
public betting trends illustrate that Colorado has received the majority of spread money throughout the week, which is likely responsible for this 3 - point line movement as oddsmakers pivoted based on this
action.
With limited
action for our primary College Basketball
betting system, we were curious whether bettors could also benefit from
betting against the
public on College Basketball totals.
Our
public betting trends indicate that Georgia Tech has received steady
public support essentially since opening, which is likely responsible for this one - point swing as oddsmakers adjust their number based on this
action.
When a majority of
public bets are taking the home team in a heavily
bet game, sportsbooks are forced to adjust their moneyline to encourage
action on the visitor.
Major conference rivalries draw significantly more
action than matchups between two mid-majors and sportsbooks are more likely to shade their lines in games featuring at least one high - profile program — especially when they're able to anticipate lopsided
public betting.
The first week of NFL
action is in the books and, as we explained in our most contrarian
betting article for ESPN, that has historically created value based on overreactions from the
betting public.
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public betting data plus any picks and
bet signals for this weekend's slate of football
action.
If the current levels of
public betting persist and a majority of the money continues taking Kansas State, I would expect that sportsbooks will adjust the line from 10.5 to 10 to encourage more
action on the Sooners.
-- In early Week 3
betting action, the Jets have already moved from a pick»em to -2.5 against the Eagles despite evenly split
public betting.
Sign up for our 4 - day Pro trial to receive real - time odds,
public betting data plus any picks and
bet signals for this weekend's slate of football
action.
While
public betting at our offshore sportsbooks has been fairly even, William Hill has taken most of their
action on the Jets with 71 % of tickets and 75 % of total dollars wagered taking New York.
This post will remain «live» through kickoff of the College Football Playoff Championship Game on January 12th between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Oregon Ducks and will be constantly updated to reflect major line moves,
public betting trends, sharp money indicators (
action from professional bettors and / or syndicates), injury news and relevant
betting analysis, so please check back often.
The basis of the analysis was our 80/20
betting system, which takes advantage of one - sided
public action by highlighting teams that receive 20 % or less of spread
bets.
It's still too early to draw any meaningful conclusions from our NFL
public betting data, but we encourage you to monitor this game on our Free NFL Live Odds Page and ensure you're signed up for the free
Action Network Newsletter for updates and analysis throughout the week.
9 of the 12 games in
action on Thursday night are seeing > 75 % of
bets on the Over, but that could spell doom for
public bettors.