Although a blowout victory for either team could dramatically impact public perception, I believe we will see fairly even levels of
public betting during the Finals, with the Warriors receiving a slight majority.
Not exact matches
Betting Against the
Public was very profitable
during the first half of the 2011 MLB Season, and this game is one we'll keep our eye on when selecting the day's Best
Bets and Square Plays.
It's very rare that you're able to find favorites that are being ignored by the
betting public, but it's significantly more prevalent
during the postseason.
Since the
public is more willing to
bet on underdogs
during the playoffs, we believed there would be value by taking a contrarian approach and backing the favorite — especially when they were receiving limited
public support.
The first is that adding a
betting against the
public filter definitely enhances the value of
betting on American League teams
during interleague play.
During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh
Public opinion when deciding on a game's
betting line.
During the regular season the public loves betting on favorites and overs, but that trend does not always hold up during bowl s
During the regular season the
public loves
betting on favorites and overs, but that trend does not always hold up
during bowl s
during bowl season.
During the regular season, sportsbooks almost always adjust their lines based on the action of their sharpest bettors, and they won't move the number based on
public money unless there's a marquee matchup with one - sided
public betting and limited sharp action on the other side.
This same strategy should be implemented
during the regular season, as there's no value
betting against the
public when sharps and squares are on the same side.
Earlier this week, we explained why
betting against the
public has been such a profitable strategy
during March Madness.
The value derived from
betting against the
public is directly correlated with the number of
bets placed on the game so, naturally, it's more lucrative to
bet against the
public when the volume of
bets increases
during the postseason.
With far fewer heavily lopsided games
during the playoffs, we would need to use a much broader definition of
betting against the
public and instead focus on teams receiving no more than 50 % of moneyline
bets.
Back in April we detailed a system for
betting against the
public during the regular season that has gone 314 - 380 (+112.45 units, 16 % ROI) since 2005 including a 16 - 13 mark (+11.72 units, 40 % ROI).
As you can see, it hasn't been a profitable strategy to
bet against the
public during the 2016 - 17 college basketball season, and there are many reasons for that.
We always stress the importance of knowing where the square and sharp money is and
Betting against the
Public during the college football bowl season has performed well every year without any big swings or valleys in the results.
Combining the Bias for Home teams
during the Playoffs with
Betting Against the Public, we find that betting on Home Teams with less than about 40 % of the Public on the Home Team — has resulted in a winning percentage in excess 60 % over the past three playoff s
Betting Against the
Public, we find that
betting on Home Teams with less than about 40 % of the Public on the Home Team — has resulted in a winning percentage in excess 60 % over the past three playoff s
betting on Home Teams with less than about 40 % of the
Public on the Home Team — has resulted in a winning percentage in excess 60 % over the past three playoff seasons.
The
public hasn't given up on them, either, as they've received at least 60 % of spread
bets in six games
during their nine game streak without a cover.
This level of one - sided
public betting on the underdog is more common
during bowl season than it is
during the regular season, but it's still highly uncommon.
There are currently four games that fit one of the above systems so as always, check out our new and improved NHL
Betting Trends to see which way the
public is leaning and which teams to fade
during the postseason.
During the NBA Playoffs, the public betting percentages do not get to the same extremes (85 % / 15 % and 80 % / 20 %) we see during the regular s
During the NBA Playoffs, the
public betting percentages do not get to the same extremes (85 % / 15 % and 80 % / 20 %) we see
during the regular s
during the regular season.
We constantly preach the importance of
betting against the
public, but that's particularly true
during the playoffs when the volume wagered on every game increases dramatically.
As you can see, teams receiving less than 40 % of
public bets posted a 128 - 119 record with +31 units won
during June.
During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh
public opinion when deciding on a game's
betting line.
The table below displays the results from
betting against the
public during the MLB playoffs.
Teams receiving less than 30 % of moneyline
bets represent the optimal threshold for
betting against the
public during the regular season, but teams rarely fit that criterion
during the playoffs.
It's interesting to note that
during bowl season,
betting against the
public has been an effective strategy for both favorites and «dogs.
We have previously discussed why the increased number of
bets creates additional value for most
betting against the
public strategies, and that has certainly been true
during the current bowl season.
This gives bettors a good indication of where sharps are
betting, and it also helps distinguish sharp vs.
public action when these lines are available around the entire market
during the season.
There may not be value
betting against the
public, but there are many contrarian strategies that are effective
during the preseason.
The first step was to identify whether
betting against the
public was profitable
during the MLB Playoffs and, if it had been a winning strategy, what was the sweet spot?
There's far more value
betting against the
public in heavily
bet games, and there's far more action
during the NBA Finals than any other round.
With the postseason underway, we typically see a large change in
public betting with bettors far more likely to take underdogs than they are
during the regular season.
We believed this development would make it more advantageous to
bet against the
public on second half lines
during the postseason.
That's one reason that
betting against the
public has historically been so profitable
during bowl season.
It will be interesting to see how
public betting fluctuates
during the NBA Finals, since the Cavs and Warriors have been the most popular teams in their respective conferences.
After narrowing our scope to focus on underdogs, we found that teams receiving less than 25 % of
public bets were actually the most profitable
during the regular season.
Based on this data, the optimal range for
betting against the
public during the NHL Playoffs comes at the 40 % threshold where favorites have gone 35 - 14 (71.4 %) with +14.96 units won.
The table below displays how
public betting impacts the performance of favorites
during the NHL Playoffs.
The table below, which uses line data from Pinnacle, shows how
betting against the
public has fared
during the NHL playoffs.
It's very rare that a majority of
public bettors will take the underdog
during the regular season, but there are significant changes to
betting habits
during the postseason.
It's also important to note that the value of
betting against the
public is directly correlated with the number of
bets placed, and the volume increases substantially
during the postseason.
SportsInsights got another nice mention from ESPN.com's Chad Millman: «Every Saturday and every Sunday
during football season I tweet the
public and sharp
betting trends for that day's games.
There are also some specialty articles dealing with highly - ranked basketball teams, and how
betting against the
public fares
during the March Madness tournament.
With March Madness right around the corner, we did some digging and came up with the following results for
betting against the
public during the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.
However, many of our customers and followers have recently asked whether or not
betting against the
public has been historically profitable
during the postseason as well.
As you can see, underdogs have done an exceptional job of covering the spread
during the postseason, but as we begin to add our
betting against the
public filters, we can improve our expected returns.
Betting against the
public is significant
during tourney time since these games are so widely -
bet with
public wagers.
Betting against the
public is one of the most popular methods used at Sports Insights, and that's particularly true
during high - profile events like March Madness and the NFL Playoffs.
Public betting could keep pushing the line up
during the week but the value may be on the Wildcats at anything above +17.
In this case, the under has gone 29 - 22
during the NBA Finals when receiving less than 50 % of
public bets.