Last week was solid for
public bettors as the most lopsided bet teams went 4 - 2.
Not surprisingly, three of the games in which Kentucky received fewer than 50 % of spread bets came against North Carolina, Florida and Louisville, other ranked - teams and perennial favorites of
public bettors as well.
Not exact matches
However, his odds have steadily dropped over that time
as public bettors and bigger money has taken Bisping to win.
Public bettors have noticed this,
as 67 % of early tickets are taking the road underdogs.
As you can see from the screenshot below, the majority of
public bettors are taking Michigan at all seven of our contributing sportsbooks.
Even though the
public doesn't like the Cowboys» chances, sharp
bettors jumped on the opportunity to get Dallas +3.5,
as we've tracked three bet signals on them and none on Philly.
As an added bonus, you can also fade the
public, follow the sharp
bettors and place yourself on the side of the books.
Public bettors are very high on Swansea
as well,
as they're receiving nearly 60 % of moneyline tickets despite being +210 underdogs.
NFL
bettors who take advantage of sportsbook shading should be able to find even more value employing this strategy at
public books
as they typically shade even further off the market consensus.
Clearly ranked favorites have offered value when they're being ignored by
public bettors, which should come
as no surprise to anybody who has been reading this column throughout the season.
As you can see from the line history above,
public bettors on FSU +7.5 or +7 were already taking the «sharp» side.
As you can see from the screenshot below, the majority of
public bettors are taking Kansas at all seven of our contributing sportsbooks.
As always we're going to fade the
public, take the value created by square
bettors and bet the road dog in this NFC South matchup.
We like the value that
public bettors have created on this game and,
as always, we recommend buying on bad news and selling on good.
While the current data shows that sharp and
public bettors are lining up on different sides, there's still plenty of time for that to change, especially if this line gets to Philadelphia +3 and inspires buyback
as limits continue to increase.
Houston was still in great shape heading into Game 3, and
public bettors were still fully on board
as the Rockets closed with 67 % of spread tickets
as 5.5 point favorites.
But
as it turned out, the majority of
public bettors got it right and Houston was in control of the series.
Considering how much
public bettors love taking the over, it should come
as no surprise that going contrarian and taking the under was a smart decision.
This was a rare nice win for
public bettors this tourney
as 59 % of tickets took USC.
Right now, this movement appears to be based on
public money
as opposed to sharp money, so there is added value on the Dolphins based on square
bettors.
Over the past decade, it has become far easier for casual sports
bettors to access information which means merely betting against the
public isn't
as profitable
as it once was.
This proved to be too short
as both
public and sharp
bettors have bet Bama up to -24 where they're currently at around the market.
Those games are all worth keeping an eye on,
as both the
public and oddsmakers alike have been slow to adjust their lines to reflect these pitchers surprising performances — although based on recent
public betting data, many
bettors are starting to buy the Orioles hot start.
Ohio State opened
as 3 - point favorites but, in a rare twist, the majority of
public bettors have been backing the underdog.
At Bovada, a square book that caters to
public bettors, Macron is listed
as a modest -110 favorite, with Le Pen +275.
The line opened same
as last week, LSU +6.5, and the Tigers initially dropped to +6 at some books before
public bettors pounded Auburn back up to -7.
They «struggled» in the first half of the year against the spread despite going 35 - 6, but turned it around in the second half
as oddsmakers and
public bettors realized that they were men, not machines, and lowered their expectations.
As I explained in the Game 4 preview, élite playoff teams have provided tremendous value when they're
public bettors are backing their opponent.
It isn't likely that
public bettors will take Penn State and the points
as it may feel immoral to root for JoePa and the Nittany Lions on Saturday (although
bettors» morality may be considered an oxymoron in some circles).
This system is similar to the last one,
as we're using the ranking system to take advantage of
public bettors.
Public bettors do seem to be getting cold feet betting on the underdog in this one,
as Nunes has gone from a pick»em to +110.
Despite the win and cover,
public bettors still don't have faith in LSU this weekend
as they're getting just 13 % of spread bets at home against Auburn.
Just one man's opinion, but
public bettors would be all over the Steelers
as underdogs should they take on the Rams.
As you can see from the table below, betting against the
public has not been an effective strategy for second half
bettors.
Many NBA
bettors wait until shortly before tip - off to place their wager, which means it's crucial to wait
as long
as possible before betting against the
public using our money percentages.
As scoring has increased, those same
public bettors have benefited greatly.
As you can see, fading the
public has been incredibly profitable for NBA
bettors — particularly at the 25 % threshold.
Chicago opened
as -130 favorites at the market - setting Pinnacle sportsbook and,
as usual, the majority of
public bettors have been taking the Cubbies.
As we often see when two top ranked teams face off,
public bettors have been more than happy to take Michigan State and the points.
Despite their early struggles,
public bettors continue to hammer Chicago with regularity
as the Cubs have received the majority of moneyline tickets in 51 of 55 games (92.7 %).
Bovada, which is well known to
bettors as a very
public / square sportsbook, posted prop bets for six of the major awards including outstanding series, actor and actress.
After opening
as 12.5 - point favorites at Bookmaker,
public bettors immediately hammered the Warriors, with 61 % of spread tickets and 85 % of parlay / teaser tickets taking the home favorite.
Lone Thursday night matchup presents great value to the
public, with spread
bettors seemingly split down the middle
as to who to take.
Carolina opened
as 1 - point underdogs at the market - setting Pinnacle sportsbook, but
public bettors have hammered the defending NFC champion for months.
Casual
bettors love to take winning teams, so it hardly comes
as a surprise that the Packers have received overwhelming
public support.
Again the
public expected a high - scoring game with 65 % of
bettors taking the over on 198.5, however, once again the under hit
as the teams combined for just 191 points.
Although
public betting is fairly balanced, it will be interesting to see if
public bettors pounce on North Carolina
as game time approaches.
However, the majority of
public bettors are still fading the «Canes,
as they're getting just 44 % of tickets.
This week, the
public is expecting them to get cover number 10,
as 70 % of
bettors are on the Eagles in Seattle.
This has been the backbone of our betting against the
public philosophy,
as these figures have allowed us to determine which teams are being hammered by the majority of
public bettors, and identify the optimal threshold for fading the
public across all six major US sports.