It's extremely rare to find the majority of
public bettors backing the underdog, but that's exactly what's happening in this matchup.
12/22/11 — Large NFL Home Underdogs Provide Late Season Value 12/14/11 — College Football Bowl Season 70/30 Betting System 12/07/11 — In the 13th Week He Rose Again:
Public Bettors Back on Tebow 11/30/11 — Identifying False Line Moves 11/16/11 — How to Win with Steam Moves 11/09/11 — Optimum Levels for Betting Against the Public 11/02/11 — Boston Bruins Pounding the Public 10/19/11 — The Tim Tebow Effect 10/12/11 — Public Chasing Their Way to Even in 2011 10/05 / 11 — The Public's Love / Hate Relationship with the 2011 Buffalo Bills
Sophisticated and
public bettors backed the Bills, who, along with the St. Louis Rams and Indianapolis Colts, attracted six - figure wagers at the MGM.
Not exact matches
We will continue to monitor these lines and trends, and it will be interesting to see whether
public bettors start consistently
backing the Vikings.
Despite the
public's tendency to
back the favorite, the majority of
bettors believe Nashville will overcome the odds and even the series at one game apiece.
Betting market:
Public bettors have quickly forgotten about Philadelphia's loss in Seattle and are right
back on the Eagles» bandwagon, with the majority of spread tickets and spread bucks taking Philly.
Over the past two weeks, we have examined the concept of fading the trendy underdog and
backing favorites that are being widely ignored by
public bettors.
Most
public bettors still tend to
back favorites, and when mixed with the unpredictability of the bowl season, unpopular underdogs tend to cover more often than not.
Not surprisingly,
public bettors are eager to
back the red - hot Musketeers after consecutive upset victories over Maryland (closed +126 on the moneyline), Florida State (+270) and Arizona (+310).
For that reason,
bettors need to identify heavily bet games with extreme levels of
public betting when
backing contrarian favorites.
A slight majority of
public bettors were willing to take the Celtics (closed +10.5)
back on November 3.
According to our Sharp Action Report (available to Sportsbook Insider Advantage subscribers), the
public may be coming in hard on the Eagles, but sharp
bettors have consistently bought
back the value with the Cowboys, making it most popular bet among professionals so far this week.
In the rare instances that
public bettors are willing to
back the underdog, there's been tremendous value going against the grain and taking the favorite.
It's still early in the week and the
public betting trends can still change dramatically before tip - off, but we're already seeing the majority of spread
bettors backing the underdog in three Sweet 16 games.
Public bettors actually
backed the Gators with the majority of tickets, but couldn't come through.
Despite that success,
public bettors have been
backing the AL at a fairly consist clip.
With
public bettors now able to cash in on Notre Dame if they win by two touchdowns, I don't expect many squares leaning towards Wake Forest unless the line moves
back to 14 or higher.
This season has seen historically high levels of
public support for AL teams during interleague play, and contrarian
bettors can exploit this tendency by
backing NL ball clubs.
Ohio State opened as 3 - point favorites but, in a rare twist, the majority of
public bettors have been
backing the underdog.
Public bettors will likely bring this line
back down to 3 but sharps will probably take advantage of anything below.
The line opened same as last week, LSU +6.5, and the Tigers initially dropped to +6 at some books before
public bettors pounded Auburn
back up to -7.
As I explained in the Game 4 preview, élite playoff teams have provided tremendous value when they're
public bettors are
backing their opponent.
This reveals that though Cincinnati is getting slightly less than 50 % of
public support, sharper
bettors are actually
backing the Reds.
Comparing these two tables, it becomes quickly apparent that
public bettors are far more likely to
back visitors in heavily bet games whereas they overwhelmingly take home teams in games with minimal action.
The table below displays how visiting teams have performed when they are not being
backed by
public bettors.
Considering the past struggles of these
public darlings,
bettors may want to consider going against the grain and
backing the Memphis Grizzlies in tonight's must - win game.
Despite that massive swing,
public bettors have been
backing the road «dog.
Betting market: After losing faith throughout the middle portion of the season,
public bettors are once again
backing America's Team.
Public bettors seem to be done
backing the Seminoles this year as they're getting just 33 % of spread tickets as a road underdog.
We'd expect the
public to continue to take Wichita St but for sharp
bettors to come
back on Vanderbilt if the line rises.
The number of
public «square»
bettors should drastically increase as it gets closer to game time, meaning the line may move
back into the contrarian
bettor's favor as the line hovers around that key number of 14.
Bettors can view the latest odds and
public betting trends on our free College Football odds page, so make sure to check
back throughout bowl season.
Back the home team at -140 here and fade the
public bettors taking a big road underdog.
With the line movement correlating directly with our
public betting percentages, it would appear that
public money was responsible for the initial 1.5 - point line move on the spread; however, sharp
bettors were happy to take this artificially inflated line and bet Ole Miss
back to +4.5.
In fact, past research found that a majority of
public bettors have
backed the favorite in more than 80 % of all NFL regular season games since the start of the 2003 season.
After seeing the line dip
back to 5.5,
public bettors continued to pound Carolina and the line once again moved from -5.5 to -6 on Saturday, January 30th at 2:29 PM eastern.
It's extremely rare for the majority of
public bettors to
back the underdog — especially at this level.
This post will remain «live» through kickoff of the College Football Playoff Championship Game on January 12th between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Oregon Ducks and will be constantly updated to reflect major line moves,
public betting trends, sharp money indicators (action from professional
bettors and / or syndicates), injury news and relevant betting analysis, so please check
back often.
While the betting
public historically does not perform well ATS (against the spread) in the NFL, this season has been historically bad for
bettors consistently
backing popular teams.
The
public backed Tampa against Chicago (65 % of spread tickets) and their following game vs. Minnesota (76 %), but
bettors haven't shown the Bucs much love since, as they've closed with the majority of tickets in just one other game this season (56 % vs. Arizona in Week 6).
It will be constantly updated to reflect major line moves,
public betting trends, sharp money indicators (action from professional
bettors and / or syndicates), injury news and any other relevant betting analysis so please check
back often.
Public bettors jumped on the rare opportunity to
back LeBron James as an underdog, with 55 % of spread tickets and 71 % of spread dollars taking the Cavs.
Public bettors cashed two of their three favorite plays Monday night, one of which was so stress - free that they're coming
back for seconds this evening.
Public bettors often
back top - ranked teams following this type of loss using a «bounce
back» theory.
Public bettors are going right
back to the well after losing last night's Red Sox - Rays game.
This is very fresh in the minds of
public bettors who are happy to
back the Bonnies against the Florida Gators, who have lost four of their past seven games.
With a large handle being driven primarly by
public bettors, sharps have found multiple opportunites to take advantage of recreational action by buying
back the opposite sides of those matchups.
While
public bettors appear to be taking the morning off, wiseguys are right
back at it pounding soft numbers.
Public Pinstripes:
Bettors have been
backing the Bronx Bombers all year, but have come away disappointed so far.
Why the
public loves Cleveland: The Cavs have been horrible (21 -44-1) against the spread this season, but that hasn't stopped
bettors from
backing them on a near nightly basis because of this player named LeBron James.