Why the public will love Oklahoma City: With their starpower, the Thunder, like the Celtics, attract
public bettors on most nights.
In those 7,809 games, there have been fewer than 50 % of
public bettors on the over just 1,001 times — roughly 12.8 % of all games.
-- Michigan State - Oregon was by far the most bet game of the day with
public bettors on MSU (2.5:1 ticket count according to David Purdum) but sharper money on Oregon.
This weekend will be a great test of
public bettors on the underdogs vs. sharper bettors on the favorites, similar to Mayweather vs. McGregor.
Their resurgence has
public bettors on their side and it's been a good strategy to follow them.
As you can see from the line history above,
public bettors on FSU +7.5 or +7 were already taking the «sharp» side.
Not exact matches
In addition to this one - sided
public betting
on the spread, casual
bettors are also hammering Michigan
on the moneyline.
I included this game because
public bettors have been very high
on Navy this season, receiving more than 80 % of tickets in two straight weeks.
Oddsmakers do not attempt to balance their book by attracting 50 percent of the action
on each side but rather shade their opening lines to capitalize
on public perception and then allow their sharpest
bettors to shape the line.
Though
public bettors seem to be pounding the hometown Heat, sharp money is coming in
on the Kings and pushing the line down.
Hence,
public bettors have been loading up
on Bisping over the last couple months to sway the odds.
With this loss fresh
on the minds of
bettors, and a lasting image of San Fran's impressive victories over both the Packers and Lions, the
public has been pounding the 49ers.
Betting market:
Public bettors have quickly forgotten about Philadelphia's loss in Seattle and are right back
on the Eagles» bandwagon, with the majority of spread tickets and spread bucks taking Philly.
These artificially inflated lines have historically created value for opportunistic contrarian
bettors since they're getting a better line purely based
on the
public perception.
12/22/11 — Large NFL Home Underdogs Provide Late Season Value 12/14/11 — College Football Bowl Season 70/30 Betting System 12/07/11 — In the 13th Week He Rose Again:
Public Bettors Back
on Tebow 11/30/11 — Identifying False Line Moves 11/16/11 — How to Win with Steam Moves 11/09/11 — Optimum Levels for Betting Against the
Public 11/02/11 — Boston Bruins Pounding the
Public 10/19/11 — The Tim Tebow Effect 10/12/11 —
Public Chasing Their Way to Even in 2011 10/05 / 11 — The
Public's Love / Hate Relationship with the 2011 Buffalo Bills
With this game being played
on ESPN2,
public bettors are flocking to the metaphoric window at their offshore accounts.
We always encourage
bettors to buy
on bad news and sell
on good news in order to capitalize
on public perception, and this game represents the ideal opportunity to accomplish both.
Casual
bettors are prone to overreacting to recent results, so we recommend buying
on bad news and selling
on good news to capitalize
public perception.
Bettors will pick up
on just about anything and I guess it's already
public knowledge that little old Bradley goes under the total like it's their job.
Sportsbooks know they'll receive
public money
on those two teams regardless of the line, and those shaded lines have provided value for opportunistic contrarian
bettors.
This simple strategy encourages
bettors to identify the most popular teams and bet against them; thereby capitalizing
on lines that have been shaded to exploit
public perception.
Even though the
public doesn't like the Cowboys» chances, sharp
bettors jumped
on the opportunity to get Dallas +3.5, as we've tracked three bet signals
on them and none
on Philly.
During the regular season, sportsbooks almost always adjust their lines based
on the action of their sharpest
bettors, and they won't move the number based
on public money unless there's a marquee matchup with one - sided
public betting and limited sharp action
on the other side.
Or will you fade the
public, follow the big professional
bettors and get down
on Mayweather at a low number?
Although San Diego was still able to cover the spread in that matchup,
public bettors are avoiding the Chargers at all costs
on Sunday.
As an added bonus, you can also fade the
public, follow the sharp
bettors and place yourself
on the side of the books.
The Jets are a favorite for casual
bettors, and the
public is likely to swallow the points
on the road against Oakland in their home opener.
Bettors can find a number of useful articles
on our College Football blog page, and we'd recommend visiting our free NCAAF odds page throughout bowl season for the latest odds and
public betting trends.
Public bettors are very high
on Swansea as well, as they're receiving nearly 60 % of moneyline tickets despite being +210 underdogs.
Just like McGregor now, Hillary Clinton's odds skyrocketed in the final weeks and days before November 8th thanks to an influx of
public betting, which created great value for
bettors to go against the grain and take a shot
on Trump at an inflated number.
With
bettors seeing the recent trends and the game taking place during the 4PM slate, there is going to be an absolute
public onslaught
on the Cowboys.
Sportsbooks and sharp
bettors have been high
on the Falcons, and even with the
public support it would be surprising to see this line get to +3.
The
public was against USC last week against Utah but sharp money
on the Trojans and an easy cover has completely changed the views of
bettors.
In addition to this one - sided
public betting
on the spread, casual
bettors are also taking Kansas to win straight up.
With an influx of casual
bettors entering the market,
public money has a more significant impact
on line movement, which often creates artificially inflates lines that can be exploited by contrarian
bettors.
The majority of
public bettors have been
on the over in...
Although sharper
bettors may often place larger bets
on the dogs, it will be beneficial in the long run for dogs to hit at a higher rate in order to combat the overwhelming
public support
on favorites.
Public bettors put a hurt
on the books last night with Clemson covering and...
Not surprisingly,
public bettors are eager to back the red - hot Musketeers after consecutive upset victories over Maryland (closed +126
on the moneyline), Florida State (+270) and Arizona (+310).
Past research has conclusively proven that betting against the
public will produce a positive return
on investment, although many
bettors are confused about why this is such a successful strategy.
We like the value that
public bettors have created
on this game and, as always, we recommend buying
on bad news and selling
on good.
Perhaps the most interesting trend is that 55 % of
public bettors are taking the over, yet 92 % of total dollars wagered are
on the under.
The majority of
bettors lost in blowout fashion betting against Buffalo in Week 1, so the
public flip - flopped and jumped
on the Bills in their Week 2 game against the Raiders.
While the current data shows that sharp and
public bettors are lining up
on different sides, there's still plenty of time for that to change, especially if this line gets to Philadelphia +3 and inspires buyback as limits continue to increase.
Houston was still in great shape heading into Game 3, and
public bettors were still fully
on board as the Rockets closed with 67 % of spread tickets as 5.5 point favorites.
A slight majority of
public bettors were willing to take the Celtics (closed +10.5) back
on November 3.
Using the
public betting trends from our seven contributing sportsbooks, we have a terrific grasp
on how many
bettors are taking each side, but the more important piece of information is how much money has been placed
on each side?
One - sided
public betting caused the total to increase from 213.5 to 214
on two separate occasions, but sharp
bettors immediately pounded the under both times.
Assuming this level of one - sided
public betting continues,
bettors may find a better price
on the Dodgers by waiting until closer to game time.
According to our Sharp Action Report (available to Sportsbook Insider Advantage subscribers), the
public may be coming in hard
on the Eagles, but sharp
bettors have consistently bought back the value with the Cowboys, making it most popular bet among professionals so far this week.