Both clubs have been playing well over the last couple matches, but I'm still surprised to see
public bettors taking a side in this one.
During the regular season we typically see a majority of
public bettors taking the favorite, but that trend is typically turned on its head during the playoffs.
Back the home team at -140 here and fade
the public bettors taking a big road underdog.
With a majority of
public bettors taking the favorite, Stanford has moved from -4 to -4.5.
With a majority of
public bettors taking LSU, the Tigers have moved from +7 to +6.5.
Despite the majority of
public bettors taking the over, early sharp action on the under caused the Game 2 total to drop from 220.5 to 220 at Pinnacle.
Not exact matches
However, his odds have steadily dropped over that time as
public bettors and bigger money has
taken Bisping to win.
Public bettors have noticed this, as 67 % of early tickets are
taking the road underdogs.
In October, I highlighted how Tebow - Mania had driven
public bettors to
take the Broncos in their Week 7 game against the Dolphins.
Betting market:
Public bettors have quickly forgotten about Philadelphia's loss in Seattle and are right back on the Eagles» bandwagon, with the majority of spread tickets and spread bucks
taking Philly.
They understand the factors driving
public betting and shade their lines accordingly to force square
bettors to
take bad numbers when playing the popular side of a game.
As you can see from the screenshot below, the majority of
public bettors are
taking Michigan at all seven of our contributing sportsbooks.
Public bettors are prone to
taking the underdog when two ranked teams play each other, and Saturday's game has been no different.
With a majority of
bettors taking Indiana,
public money has moved the line to -7 across the sports betting marketplace.
Just like McGregor now, Hillary Clinton's odds skyrocketed in the final weeks and days before November 8th thanks to an influx of
public betting, which created great value for
bettors to go against the grain and
take a shot on Trump at an inflated number.
With
bettors seeing the recent trends and the game
taking place during the 4PM slate, there is going to be an absolute
public onslaught on the Cowboys.
NFL
bettors who
take advantage of sportsbook shading should be able to find even more value employing this strategy at
public books as they typically shade even further off the market consensus.
In addition to this one - sided
public betting on the spread, casual
bettors are also
taking Kansas to win straight up.
Looking at games with drastic one - sided
public betting, it becomes abundantly clear that
public bettors prefer
taking favorites.
Public perception, bolstered by conventional wisdom and media coverage, led
bettors to assume that «stay» would win, which provided added value for those brave enough to go against the grain and
take «leave» at plus money.
Since the start of the 2005 season, the majority of
public bettors have
taken the underdog in just 22.65 % of all college basketball games.
As you can see from the line history above,
public bettors on FSU +7.5 or +7 were already
taking the «sharp» side.
As you can see from the screenshot below, the majority of
public bettors are
taking Kansas at all seven of our contributing sportsbooks.
As always we're going to fade the
public,
take the value created by square
bettors and bet the road dog in this NFC South matchup.
This is just the books» way of exploiting
public bettors who love
taking the over.
Perhaps the most interesting trend is that 55 % of
public bettors are
taking the over, yet 92 % of total dollars wagered are on the under.
Although betting against the
public continues to be a profitable strategy,
bettors become increasingly willing to
take the underdog.
Now that the line has shifted to +6.5,
public bettors have begun
taking Alabama again.
Public bettors overwhelmingly
take favorites and overs, which makes perfect sense from a psychological standpoint.
Considering how much
public bettors love
taking the over, it should come as no surprise that going contrarian and
taking the under was a smart decision.
A slight majority of
public bettors were willing to
take the Celtics (closed +10.5) back on November 3.
Using the
public betting trends from our seven contributing sportsbooks, we have a terrific grasp on how many
bettors are
taking each side, but the more important piece of information is how much money has been placed on each side?
Casual
bettors love
taking favorites, so it's hardly surprisingly that these super teams tend to receive overwhelming
public support.
Public bettors will likely
take Ohio State at -6.5 throughout the week so if the line jumps to -7 again you may want to think about
taking Michigan.
Bettors taking a simple contrarian strategy have likely made a killing while square public bettors are probably in deep with loan sharks... hoping that their kneecaps survive to see anoth
Bettors taking a simple contrarian strategy have likely made a killing while square
public bettors are probably in deep with loan sharks... hoping that their kneecaps survive to see anoth
bettors are probably in deep with loan sharks... hoping that their kneecaps survive to see another day.
In the rare instances that
public bettors are willing to back the underdog, there's been tremendous value going against the grain and
taking the favorite.
This was a rare nice win for
public bettors this tourney as 59 % of tickets
took USC.
It's also worth noting that oddsmakers respect the opinion of their sharpest
bettors, and won't adjust based on
public money if those sharps have
taken a side.
Lopsided
public betting action causes bloated moneylines, leaving a lot of money on the table for
bettors willing to go against the grain and
taking the other side.
By going against the mainstream narrative and
taking unpopular viewpoints,
bettors have been able to capitalize on market inefficiencies and exploit
public perception.
Right now 64 % of tickets and 77 % of the money wagered is on Chicago, which means that both sharp and
public bettors are
taking the Hawks.
At the time of publication, there had been 108 interleague games played and a majority of
public bettors had
taken the AL team in more than two - thirds of these games.
In addition to this one - sided
public betting on the moneyline, we've also seen
bettors taking Texas in parlays and on the runline.
Although
public bettors aren't willing to
take the points with USC, they are
taking the Trojans to win straight up at +155 odds.
Put another way, we believed that it would be lucrative to
take favorites that were being ignored by
public bettors.
That said, Notre Dame is a very
public team which means no matter what their futures price, there are many
bettors who will still
take the Irish.
It's incredibly rare to find the majority of
bettors taking the underdog, and this level of one - sided
public betting is unprecedented.
The Warriors are the most
public team in the league, so it's not surprising to see
bettors taking them to cover.
Public bettors love
taking overs, but in this matchup we're actually seeing over 60 % of bets on the UNDER.
My research found that the majority of
public bettors (more than 50 % of spread tickets) have
taken the underdog in 16.1 % of regular season games, while the majority of
public bettors have
taken the underdog in 19.2 % of bowl games.