Not exact matches
Since the
public is more willing to bet on underdogs
during the
playoffs, we believed there would be value by taking a contrarian approach and backing the favorite — especially when they were receiving limited
public support.
During the NFL
Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh
Public opinion when deciding on a game's betting line.
With far fewer heavily lopsided games
during the
playoffs, we would need to use a much broader definition of betting against the
public and instead focus on teams receiving no more than 50 % of moneyline bets.
Combining the Bias for Home teams
during the
Playoffs with Betting Against the
Public, we find that betting on Home Teams with less than about 40 % of the
Public on the Home Team — has resulted in a winning percentage in excess 60 % over the past three
playoff seasons.
During the NBA Playoffs, the public betting percentages do not get to the same extremes (85 % / 15 % and 80 % / 20 %) we see during the regular s
During the NBA
Playoffs, the
public betting percentages do not get to the same extremes (85 % / 15 % and 80 % / 20 %) we see
during the regular s
during the regular season.
We constantly preach the importance of betting against the
public, but that's particularly true
during the
playoffs when the volume wagered on every game increases dramatically.
During the NFL
Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh
public opinion when deciding on a game's betting line.
The table below displays the results from betting against the
public during the MLB
playoffs.
Teams receiving less than 30 % of moneyline bets represent the optimal threshold for betting against the
public during the regular season, but teams rarely fit that criterion
during the
playoffs.
It's also worth noting that
public bettors seem to gravitate towards the road team
during the NBA
playoffs, and that's especially true
during the Finals.
The first step was to identify whether betting against the
public was profitable
during the MLB
Playoffs and, if it had been a winning strategy, what was the sweet spot?
That helps explain why $ 100 / game bettors would have lost $ 4,517 fading the
public during the first two rounds of the NBA
Playoffs, while those same bettors would have earned $ 2,162 fading the
public in the final two rounds.
Although the
public still typically takes the favorite
during the
playoffs, there are still a large number of
public dogs.
Based on this data, the optimal range for betting against the
public during the NHL
Playoffs comes at the 40 % threshold where favorites have gone 35 - 14 (71.4 %) with +14.96 units won.
The table below displays how
public betting impacts the performance of favorites
during the NHL
Playoffs.
The table below, which uses line data from Pinnacle, shows how betting against the
public has fared
during the NHL
playoffs.
During the regular season we typically see a majority of public bettors taking the favorite, but that trend is typically turned on its head during the pla
During the regular season we typically see a majority of
public bettors taking the favorite, but that trend is typically turned on its head
during the pla
during the
playoffs.
Betting against the
public is one of the most popular methods used at Sports Insights, and that's particularly true
during high - profile events like March Madness and the NFL
Playoffs.
This trend intensifies
during the
playoffs, when sportsbooks take an even higher volume of
public money.