The following is NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun's reaction to this morning's U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on the employment situation in March: «The March jobs report was a bit soft, and first
quarter GDP growth rate...
For example, third -
quarter GDP growth was at 2 %, a solid result compared to 1.3 % for the second quarter.
«The March jobs report was a bit soft, and first
quarter GDP growth rate also looks to be weak.
While the second estimate was an improvement over the initial 0.7 percent, it was far below the average 3.4 percent typical of first -
quarter GDP growth over the 1950 - 16 period.
King Dollar has appreciated against a basket of major currencies ahead of this afternoon's estimate of first -
quarter GDP growth.
As a result, inventory investment contributed 0.73 percentage point to third -
quarter GDP growth, after adding just over a tenth of a percentage point to growth in the prior period.
Even with updated information, growth of the US economy slowed from second and third quarter of 2017 readings that exceeded three percent, but fourth
quarter GDP growth did outperform its potential for the third consecutive quarter and deeper analysis suggests that the fourth quarter reading was solid.
Second -
quarter GDP growth came in at a quarter - over-quarter rate of 0.4 % in the three months to end - June, the same as in the previous two quarters.
is a case in point: the drag induced by the drop in inventories subtracted more than two percentage points from the annualized fourth
quarter GDP growth rate.
The most recent GDP release is a case in point: the drag induced by the drop in inventories subtracted more than two percentage points from the annualized fourth
quarter GDP growth rate.
Meantime, the current estimates for first -
quarter GDP growth in the US point to a continuation of the moderate expansion that prevailed in the final three months of 2017.
Second -
quarter GDP growth projections were lowered by Wall Street analysts and the Fed forecasting arms alike.
The fact that first
quarter GDP growth was slightly positive does not alter this.
Williamson said the PMIs pointed to fourth -
quarter GDP growth of 0.1 percent, weaker than the 0.2 percent predicted in a Reuters poll last week, but that very weak expansion is coming at a cost: firms cut prices for the 33rd month.
Wednesday's downward revision pushes the Atlanta Fed's estimate for first -
quarter GDP growth well below the 3 % target that President Donald Trump has touted for his administration.
The soft reading could see economists trim their forecasts for first -
quarter GDP growth.
The bottom line is first
quarter GDP growth in the U.S. was revised down to 1.8 % from 2.4 % — an incredible 25 % miss — for annualized growth of 0.4 %.
That is likely to prompt lower expectations for first
quarter GDP growth.
Goldman Sachs cut its second -
quarter GDP growth estimate by three tenths of a percentage point to 1.0 percent.
Not exact matches
In each of the first three
quarters of 2007, the estimates of real
GDP growth available to the Fed in January 2008 were higher than the estimates available currently.
The blue bars represent real
GDP growth for these same 2007 four
quarters as estimated in September 2013.
Even the first -
quarter slowdown in U.S. economic
growth (
GDP was 2.3 percent) is being met with the usual skepticism: «We expect faster
growth in Q2 and throughout the year,» UBS said in a note to clients.
In Trump's first three full
quarters in the White House,
GDP clocked
growth just shy of his vaunted goal of 3 %, a performance that by recent standards looks stellar.
Rajiv Biswas, Asia - Pacific chief economist at research house IHS Global Insight, said the expected uptick in Japan's
GDP growth this
quarter will be mostly on the back of «Abenomics,» which doesn't guarantee a strong rebound.
GDP inched upwards only 0.7 % in the third
quarter from a year earlier, and the International Monetary Fund is forecasting mere 0.2 %
growth for all of 2014.
For the rest of this year, U.S.
GDP growth will likely rebound and run above a 2 - percent rate over the next two
quarters, he added.
Chinese economic
growth met expectations during the September
quarter, maintaining the familiar pattern seen in each of the past ten
GDP reports.
GDP was so strong to start the year that the Bank of Canada likely will have to raise its
growth estimates for the first
quarter from the current 1 % to as much as 3 %.
Indeed, as labour economist Jim Stanford recently pointed out, our
GDP growth fell behind six of the G7 in the second and third
quarters of last year, beating only Italy with an average advance of 1.7 % during the six - month period.
«The declining momentum should already become apparent in the first
quarter, for which we expect gross domestic product (
GDP)
growth of only 0.4 percent
quarter - on -
quarter for Germany, whereas
GDP grew by 0.6 percent in the fourth
quarter,» Kraemer said in a note.
Unemployment has continued its steady decline, hitting 4.1 percent in October, and
GDP growth has picked up, gaining 3.0 percent in the third
quarter, according to «advance» estimates released in October.
Analysts expect the 16 - day shutdown will shave between 0.2 and 0.6 of a percentage point off fourth -
quarter annualized
GDP growth.
He adds that even if technology is having a long - term negative impact on
GDP growth, the change from
quarter to
quarter or even year to year is probably negligible.
As I explained last week, one way to avoid a statutory recession is for past data to be revised to show
growth in the first
quarter of 2015 (and this could still happen in future
GDP releases, so the issue of a statutory recession has not been fully settled).
BlackRock says this decline in labor participation is partly responsible for a corresponding decline in economic
growth, accounting for roughly a
quarter of the variation in
growth of
GDP.
«Leading indicators suggest that domestic demand will continue to perform strongly in the second half of the year, but we think the
quarter - on -
quarter run - rate in headline
GDP (gross domestic product)
growth will slow to 0.4 percent - to - 0.5 percent
quarter - on -
quarter,» Claus Vistesen, chief euro zone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in an email.
Malaysia's second -
quarter gross domestic product (
GDP)
growth slowed to its lowest rate since the third
quarter of 2013.
This is not to say that Boh Plantations isn't feeling the pressure from a toxic mix of headwinds that has seen Malaysia's second -
quarter gross domestic product (
GDP)
growth slow to its lowest rate since the third
quarter of 2013.
The number rang in below expectations, marking the first time the
GDP growth rate slipped under zero since the fourth
quarter of 2011.
The U.S. Commerce Department this year revised its first -
quarter GDP data from negative to positive
growth, and its second -
quarter data from 0.6 per cent
growth, at annual rates, to 0.9 per cent — a rather different economic picture.
GDP grew by 0.55 percent in the second
quarter of the year, which, although a meager
growth rate, was welcomed because it signaled Nigeria's exit from the recession that it plunged into due to the oil price crash.
Consumption
growth was robust in the third
quarter, supported by the new Canada Child Benefit, while the effects of federal infrastructure spending are not yet evident in the
GDP data.
The increase in hiring by small businesses is an encouraging sign for the economy amid estimates that the 16 - day government shutdown could have sliced off as much as 0.6 percentage point from fourth
quarter gross domestic product (
GDP)
growth.
Add to this the disappointing ISM report, weakening automobile sales and slightly lower - than - hoped - for
GDP growth in the second
quarter, and it seems less and less likely we'll see more than one additional rate hike in 2017.
That could add one - fourth to one - half of a percentage point to annualized
GDP growth in the
quarter, he said.
GDP growth likely stalled in the fourth
quarter of 2015, pulled down by temporary softness in the U.S. economy, weaker business investment and several other temporary factors.
There is, of course, a great deal of skepticism about the 7 % real
GDP growth rate that China has reported, but we should remember that in the first
quarter, nominal
GDP growth was much lower, 5.8 %.
[2] Each
quarter in the Statement on Monetary Policy, we publish forecasts for Australia's major trading partners»
GDP growth, as well as Australia's terms of trade,
GDP growth, unemployment rate and inflation over the next two - and - a-half years.
The recent increase in oil prices in 2015 corresponds to weakening of the dollar that may reflect disappointingly weak first
quarter 2015 U.S.
GDP growth.
Overall, PDFP rose 2.2 percent over the past four
quarters, above the 1.2 - percent
growth in
GDP over the same period.»