Sentences with phrase «quasi-operational decadal climate»

«Such decadal climate fluctuations are superimposed on the general warming trend, so that at times it seems as if the warming trend slowed or even stopped.

The value of this information is illustrated by the results of a study published May 19 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters by Oster's group, working with colleagues from the Berkeley Geochronology Center, the Smithsonian Institution National Museum of Natural History and the University of Cambridge titled «Northeast Indian stalagmite records Pacific decadal climate change: Implications for moisture transport and drought in India.»

Among the scientific advances that will be required is better integration of weather and climate models to improve decadal climate information to help people plan,» Moss said.

Annual and decadal climate forcing of historical fire regimes in the interior Pacific Northwest, USA.

The AMO is linked with decadal climate fluctuations, such as Indian and Sahel rainfall, European summer precipitation, Atlantic hurricanes and variations in global temperatures.

Using the adjoint of an ocean general circulation model, I try to understand the local and remote processes that generate temperature anomalies in the Nordic Seas on different timescales and their potential contribution to decadal climate predictability.

What we've observed is unusual, but it is also dominated by decadal climate variability, and can't be considered «unprecendeted».

Ice - sheet responses to decadal - scale ocean forcing appear to be less important, possibly indicating that the future response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet will be governed more by long - term anthropogenic warming combined with multi-centennial natural variability than by annual or decadal climate oscillations.»

Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).

This seemed to me like perhaps a more realistic effort at decadal climate prediction.

Back around 2007/8, two high - profile papers claimed to produce, for the first time, skilful predictions of decadal climate change, based on new techniques of ocean state initialization in climate models.

«Externally Forced and Internally Generated Decadal Climate Variability Associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation.»

«Antarctic Sea - Ice Expansion between 2000 and 2014 Driven by Tropical Pacific Decadal Climate Variability.»

CLIVAR - ICTP Workshop on Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability: Challenge and Opportunity

Cloud changes are the biggest source of decadal climate change in the record.

Jan 15, 2018: For the MiKlip II project (short for «decadal climate predictions»), a magnetic tape library has been put into operation at the DKRZ to store the resulting project data.

Antarctic sea - ice expansion between 2000 and 2014 driven by tropical Pacific decadal climate variability.

Improving this understanding can help advance the prediction of the AMV impacts and, hence, decadal climate predictions.

Like weather forecasts — initialized decadal climate modelling might indeed be possible — but these are orders of magnitude more difficult than weather forecasts.

The recognition of decadal climate shifts are an example of better science — the new paradigm of dynamical complexity in climate.

The Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and society

«NASA's examination of ocean observations has provided its own unique contribution to our knowledge of decadal climate trends and global warming,» said Veronica Nieves, a researcher at JPL and the University of California, Los Angeles and co-author of the new study.

According to IPCC AR5, the mismatch between models and observations during both 1984 - 1998 and 1998 - 2012 may be due to «internal decadal climate variability, which sometimes enhances and sometimes counteracts the long - term externally forced trend» (Chapter 9, p. 769).

Modeling of the recent decadal climate record would require careful accounting for all of the radiative forcings, and would also require accurate modeling of ocean dynamics to accurately simulate the climate system's response time.

Strong decadal climate variability is a signature of the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, which is also home to the global overturning circulation.

Central Pacific El Nino and decadal climate change in the North Pacific Ocean.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=8703 Now I realize that I have quoted Josh Willis form the NASA site before — but this is one of the critical Earth systems for many reasons — perhaps least for the changes in global surface temperature trajectory associated with the decadal climate shifts.

Develop a framework for understanding decadal variability through metrics that can be used as a strategy to assess and validate decadal climate predictions simulations.

There is far too much so - called noise to distinguish the so - called signal and the noise changes abruptly and significantly with these decadal climate shifts.

Pauses are expected in the warming record because of natural variation that can add to or subtract from decadal climate change because that is only tenths of a degree.

US CLIVAR Decadal Predictability Working Group, 2011: Distinguishing the roles of natural and anthropogenically forced decadal climate variability: Implications for prediction, Bull.

You can get a quick overview of definitions, and the performance of seasonal and decadal climate predictions in these SPECS factsheets: Fact sheet # 6: Tropical Cyclone Forecasts (May 2015) Read more about SPECS: http://www.specs-fp7.eu/ According to the SPECS Dissemination work package, the fact sheets will be two - page long documents that intend to introduce basic concepts of... Read More

Towards Prediction of Decadal Climate Variability and Change James Murphy, Vladimir Kattsov, Noel Keenlyside, Masahide Kimoto, Gerald Meehl, Vikram Mehta, Holger Pohlmann, Adam Scaife, Doug Smith

A new study published in Scientific Reports has developed a state - of - the - art drought and wildfire prediction system based on the decadal climate prediction approach using the NCAR Community Earth System Model.

I currently co-chair the CLIVAR working group on Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability and the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) scientific team responsible for the Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction.

This hindcast setting roughly follows the experimental design of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - 5 (CMIP5) for decadal climate prediction (Taylor et al. 2009; Murphy et al. 2010).

An improved dynamical understanding of how the tropical Pacific Ocean transitions into hiatus events, including its seasonal structure, may help to improve future prediction of decadal climate variations.

Guidelines for Component C Pacemaker Experiments TECHNICAL TECHNICAL NOTE 3, DECADAL CLIMATE PREDICTION PROJECT (DCPP)- Component C

Decadal climate prediction of annual mean variations in total water storage (left), vegetation carbon (center), and fire season length (right panels) over the Northern US.

Although our results are based on an idealized modeling framework that captures only naturally occurring climate variations, they clearly suggest that decadal climate predictions for soil hydrological conditions are feasible and may become beneficial for forestry, water management, and agriculture.

Thanks to the availability of data from satellite altimetry, Argo floats, and moored buoys in the tropical Pacific, this decadal phase change is the best - observed decadal climate shift in history.

Component C, Predictability, mechanisms, and case studies: the organization and coordination of decadal climate predictability studies and of case studies of particular climate shifts and variations, including the study of the mechanisms that determine these behaviours

Although the potential predictability in our idealized modeling framework would overestimate the real predictability of the coupled climate - land - vegetation system, the decadal climate prediction may become beneficial for water resource management, forestry, and agriculture.

DECADE (2011 - 2015) Decadal climate prediction in adaptation to climate change.

There is currently less skill in predicting precipitation and other variables compared to temperature although progress is expected to be made as a consequence of the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) and other projects and investigations.

This work is supported through NSF Award No. 1049219, Investigation of Decadal Climate Predictability and Hydroclimate impacts (IDCPI) on the Western US.

Component B, Forecasts: the ongoing production of experimental quasi-operational decadal climate predictions in support of multi-model annual to decadal forecasting and the application of the forecasts to societal needs

Questions and comments concerning the DCPP may be conveyed via the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) Participant Forum.

The coordination of the scientific and practical aspects of decadal climate prediction research within WCRP is undertaken by the DCPP Panel under the guidance of the Working Group on Subseasonal to Interdecadal Prediction (WGSIP).

The experimental protocol for the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6 is described in detail in Boer et al. (2016).