Then some of
the questions about natural variability may be answered.
Within the limits of available data they address intriguing
questions about the natural variability in the Arctic.
Not exact matches
My understanding of most of the (lets call it) skeptical positions from people like Roy Spencer is that they essentially claim exactly that: the absence of a large signal compared to noise (or
natural variability) and the entire debate is essentially
about the
question, whether noise is a measurement / statistical problem or the very nature of climate itself?
Question: before talking
about simulating climate CHANGE, how long does the climate science community expect it to take before GCM's can reproduce the real world climate PRIOR to human induced CO2 perturbation in terms of: — «equilibrium point», i.e. without artificial flux adjustment to avoid climatic drift, — «
natural variability», in terms of, for instance, the Hurst coefficient at different locations on the planet?
The governing assumption in the vast majority of GCM / climate studies is that
natural variability is a) small, b) integrates to zero over time and therefore its un interesting when it comes to answering the
questions we care
about: How much warming will human forcing cause.
I suspect this
question is best answered by a post: «
Natural Variability Limits Confidence
about Attribution and Climate Sensitivity.»
Dr. Trenberth, along with several colleagues, recently penned a letter raising some
questions about the hypothesis: namely raising the point that such jet stream behavior has been seen before and can exist in even a non-warming climate, due to
natural variability.