Assuming that there is, in fact, a
positive radiation imbalance, heat will gradually stop going in as the ocean warms to balance the increase in radiation by an increase in emission.
Add in the current
radiation imbalance of ~ 1 W / m2, you have at least 1.5 deg C surface warming to come (assuming a canonical 0.75 C / W / m2 sensitivity)».
The limitations of OLS on data with a near unit root is well taken, but to claim that the temperature just changes stochastically, within bounds that are very far off what one would expect just from natural variability, is not convincing: Many parameters of the earth system are simultaneously showing signs of warming, plus there's still a positive
radiation imbalance at the top of the atmosphere: The earth hasn't even warmed up yet to the full extent that the change in forcing implies.
«Our results demonstrate how synergistic use of satellite TOA radiation observations and recently improved ocean heat content measurements, with appropriate error estimates, provide critical data for quantifying short - term and longer - term changes in the Earth's net
TOA radiation imbalance.
An apparent inconsistency has been diagnosed between interannual variations in the net
radiation imbalance inferred from satellite measurements and upper - ocean heating rate from in situ measurements, and this inconsistency has been interpreted as «missing energy» in the system2.
mehus@19 dana1981@20 John Hartz@21 I inferred from Kevin Trenberth lecture on Utube that «missing heat» was discrepancy
between radiation imbalance (KT stated 0.9 wm ** -2) & delta ocean heat expected from it.
Looking at the surface temperature and the ocean heat content changes together though allows us to pin down the total unrealised forcing (the
net radiation imbalance) and demonstrate that the models are consistent with both the surface and ocean changes.
Thus continued precise monitoring of Earth's
radiation imbalance is probably the best way to assess and adjust the appropriate CO2 target.
We know that 93 % or so of
the radiation imbalance from global warming is going into the oceans anyhow, so it should be obvious from that the ocean is largely a cooling source.
Current climate change is largely an aggregate effect; it depends mostly on the time integral of
radiation imbalance, due to the large thermal inertia of the system.
Thus continued precise monitoring of Earth's
radiation imbalance is probably the best way to assess and adjust the appropriate CO2 target.
Educating the lay public about some simple arithmetical details of
the radiation imbalance is not going to solve the problem created by the radiation imbalance, since the scale of the problem now exceeds even the most modest approaches to its solution.