The «forcing» by the way is just a measure of how the net
radiative balance of the planet is perturbed by a change in solar irradiance, greenhouse gases, etc..
I have given a number of links above to where this issue has been debated before and it is summed up by this: The AGW GMST is incorrect because it does not allow for this effect, that is: (A + B) ^ 4 > A ^ 4 + B ^ 4; as Mait shows you can have an average temperature which does not reflect
the radiative balance of the Moon and vice-versa.
Radiative balance of the earth system then sets the temperature at this level in the atmosphere and the temperature at the surface basically follows from the lapse rate.
The accumulated energy has to come from something affecting
the radiative balance of the planet, not just distributional factors.
If all farm animals disappeared, tomorrow, we could not measure the impact on
the radiative balance of the atmosphere.
To accurately estimate
the radiative balance of snow at a geographical location, it is of great importance to measure all of the light - absorbing constituents in the snow.
You have to look at the whole
radiative balance of the whole climate system over a longer period of time.
This is certainly one of the two totally decisive points in understanding
the radiative balance of the surface.
Then, if compositional changes occur, involving changes in the net
radiative balance of the entire atmosphere the climate zones will shift as the atmosphere has to work more hard or less hard to maintain top of atmosphere energy balance.
Matthew Marler, those other surface fluxes do nothing to restore
the radiative balance of the earth as seen from space.
Likewise, I know that the average
radiative balance of the earth has been mathematically determined but I do not think that we are measuring actual radiative gains and losses over the entire spectrum well enough as yet.
So a local spike in precipitation releases a lot of heat — but as the heat increases, this negatively affects the vapor - > water transition (precipitation, or raindrop formation), since warm air holds more water then cool air — and so the limit on precipitation vis - a-vis
the radiative balance of the atmosphere appears.
(Water vapor and low - level clouds can have a big effect on
the radiative balance of the surface.)
For example, we could describe climate change primarily in terms of the physical processes: carbon emissions,
the radiative balance of the atmosphere, average temperatures, and impacts on human life and ecosystems.
Guemas et al. (Nature Climate Change 2013) shows that the slower warming of the last ten years can not be explained by a change in
the radiative balance of our Earth, but rather by a change in the heat storage of the oceans, and that this can be at least partially reproduced by climate models, if one accounts for the natural fluctuations associated with El Niño in the initialization of the models.
How about this: if I could point to a state change in
the radiative balance of the earth that started 6 years ago, would you say unless that state change lasts 24 more years it's not climate change?
Stratospheric cooling as a result of excess CO2 does influence ozone recovery, and ozone changes in the troposphere and stratosphere to have effects on
radiative balance of the planet.
Not exact matches
«What is most interesting is that there are big shifts in the surface mass
balance that occur from only very small changes in
radiative forcing,» said Ullman, who is in OSU's College
of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences.
The other two shortlisted missions — which had been whittled down from an original list
of over 20 possibilities — were CoReH2O, which sought to model the water
balance in glaciers and snow - covered areas, and PREMIER, which aimed to study chemical processes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere and the
radiative effects
of clouds.
«Fire is losing heat through
radiative and convective heat transfer and it is gaining heat as energy is produced as a result
of combustion, so it is an energy
balance problem.
By showing that (a) there are no common physical laws between the warming phenomenon in glass houses and the fictitious atmospheric greenhouse effects, (b) there are no calculations to determine an average surface temperature
of a planet, (c) the frequently mentioned difference
of 33 C is a meaningless number calculated wrongly, (d) the formulas
of cavity radiation are used inappropriately, (e) the assumption
of a
radiative balance is unphysical, (f) thermal conductivity and friction must not be set to zero, the atmospheric greenhouse conjecture is falsified
The ideal metric
of course would be a forcing that can be calculated easily and where every perturbation to the
radiative balance had an relative efficacy
of 1.
However, in view
of the fact that cloud feedbacks are the dominant contribution to uncertainty in climate sensitivity, the fact that the energy
balance model used by Schmittner et al can not compute changes in cloud
radiative forcing is particularly serious.
I think the actual point that we were making was that the cloud feedback (how clouds change as a function
of the temperature, circulation, humidity etc., and how that impacts the
radiative balance) is not being calculated here.
Nevertheless, the results described here provide key evidence
of the reliability
of water vapor feedback predicted by current climate models in response to a global perturbation in the
radiative energy
balance.»
However, global mean precipitation is controlled not by the availability
of water vapour, but by a
balance between the latent heat
of condensation and
radiative cooling in the troposphere.
ENSO events, for example, can warm or cool ocean surface temperatures through exchange
of heat between the surface and the reservoir stored beneath the oceanic mixed layer, and by changing the distribution and extent
of cloud cover (which influences the
radiative balance in the lower atmosphere).
It's something
of an abstract concept, but with real world implications, and the universality
of such physical models, based on things like
radiative balance, atmospheric composition and density, distance from the local Sun, etc., is a very strong argument in favor
of general acceptance
of the results
of climate models and observations on Earth.
However, practices differ significantly on some key aspects, in particular, in the use
of initialized forecast analyses as a tool, the explicit use
of the historical transient record, and the use
of the present day
radiative imbalance vs. the implied
balance in the pre-industrial as a target.»
I think a better definition
of climate change would be a recognizable
radiative balance state change that appears immune to short term cycles like ENSO and seasonal cycles.
ENSO events, for example, can warm or cool ocean surface temperatures through exchange
of heat between the surface and the reservoir stored beneath the oceanic mixed layer, and by changing the distribution and extent
of cloud cover (which influences the
radiative balance in the lower atmosphere).
Earth's energy
balance In response to a positive
radiative forcing F (see Appendix A), such as characterizes the present - day anthropogenic perturbation (Forsteret al., 2007), the planet must increase its net energy loss to space in order to re-establish energy
balance (with net energy loss being the difference between the outgoing long - wave (LW) radiation and net incoming shortwave (SW) radiation at the top -
of - atmosphere (TOA)-RRB-.
By showing that (a) there are no common physical laws between the warming phenomenon in glass houses and the fictitious atmospheric greenhouse effects, (b) there are no calculations to determine an average surface temperature
of a planet, (c) the frequently mentioned difference
of 33 C is a meaningless number calculated wrongly, (d) the formulas
of cavity radiation are used inappropriately, (e) the assumption
of a
radiative balance is unphysical, (f) thermal conductivity and friction must not be set to zero, the atmospheric greenhouse conjecture is falsified
Because we understand the energy
balance of our Earth, we also know that global warming is caused by greenhouse gases — which have caused the largest imbalance in the
radiative energy budget over the last century.
Given the economic tenor
of many news stories, an analogy to inflation may be useful in clarifying the idea
of slow but steady
radiative bracket creep, as the CO2 forcing can be outlined in terms
of its effect on the
radiative balance, which reduces to watts / M2 and their rate
of change.
It is found that a
radiative forcing from non-CO2 gases
of approximately 0.6 W m -LRB--2) results in a near
balance of CO2 emissions from the terrestrial biosphere and uptake
of CO2 by the oceans, resulting in near - constant atmospheric CO2 concentrations for at least a century after emissions are eliminated.»
However, the sun provides an abundant source
of energy and by changing the earth's
radiative balance so that we absorb a little more
of that energy, we are having an important effect on the earth's climate.
It is the reduced amount
of radiation leaving the top
of the atmosphere that changes the earth's
balance of heat, and therefore defines the «direct
radiative forcing» caused by doubling CO2.
But, I think that is likely to affect weather patterns much more than the
radiative balance at the top
of the atmosphere.
We should underscore that the concepts
of radiative forcing and climate sensitivity are simply an empirical shorthand that climatologists find useful for estimating how different changes to the planet's
radiative balance will lead to eventual temperature changes.
As an analogy, if I told you that I was going to paint my white car black and that I expected it would get hotter on sunny days as a result, you would probably start asking questions about what the temperature
of the paint was when I applied it and how those molecules heated up or cooled down, ignoring the relevant factor which is this: By painting the car black, I am changing the car's albedo and thus changing the
radiative balance between the car and the sun on sunny days.
The ideal metric
of course would be a forcing that can be calculated easily and where every perturbation to the
radiative balance had an relative efficacy
of 1.
A vast array
of thought has been brought to bear on this problem, beginning with Arrhenius» simple energy
balance calculation, continuing through Manabe's one - dimensional
radiative - convective models in the 1960's, and culminating in today's comprehensive atmosphere - ocean general circulation models.
Because latent heat release in the course
of precipitation must be
balanced in the global mean by infrared
radiative cooling
of the troposphere (over time scales at which the atmosphere is approximately in equilibrium), it is sometimes argued that
radiative constraints limit the rate at which precipitation can increase in response to increasing CO2.
In full equilibrium, at any given level, there may be some net
radiative heating at some frequencies compensated by some net
radiative cooling at other frequencies, with convection
balancing the full spectrum
radiative cooling
of the troposphere and heating
of the surface.
Then, the
radiative balance limits the rate at which precipitation can increase — a question
of rates, which is always going to be more complicated then a question
of quantities.
(57k) When I state that the equilibrium climatic response must
balance imposed RF (and feedbacks that occur), I am referring to a global time average RF and global time average response (in terms
of radiative and convective fluxes), on a time scale sufficient to characterize the climatic state (including cycles driven by externally - forced cycles (diurnal, annual) and internal variability.
In this explanation what is changing is the altitude at which emission occurs, and at higher levels it is colder, so this level needs to warm up to maintain the
radiative balance; what would happen once the altitude
of radiative emission reaches above the tropopause?
Some
of this internal variability can have affect the global average
radiative energy
balance.
The
radiative effect
of CO2 can be determined precisely based on physical laws and the result
of this
radiative effect on the heat
balance of the planet can also be determined based on physical laws.