An evaluation of climate model simulations used in the latest IPCC -LSB--RSB- reports finds that the atmospheric changes that account for most of the 113 year warming trend are not predicted to result from
historical radiative changes, including both natural and anthropogenic forcings.
This necessitates taking into account atmospheric radiative transfer so that any SST warming is driven
by radiative changes (e.g., changes in greenhouse gas concentrations) and resultant changes in the surface fluxes.
On the other hand, changes in surface boundary conditions such as sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropics (Hoerling et al. 2001, 2004; Bracco et al. 2004), winds in the stratosphere (Scaife et al. 2014; Kidston et al. 2015), and
radiative changes associated with increasing GHG concentrations (Selten et al. 2004; Deser et al. 2012) may also influence the NAO.
The longwave part of the
net radiative change includes the «greenhouse effect» (i.e. the atmosphere radiating energy downward) and the longwave feedback (i.e. warmer things radiate more energy away).
Thus, my hypothesis predicts that the temperature response to volcanic forcing in the models will not be well approximated by the
TOA radiative changes that the IPCC and the models say rule the temperature.
It seems that tropics are damned near immune to
radiative change, with a corrective feedback of about 90 % of any change in forcing.
There are many ways to reconfigure the temperature in the column and at the surface to balance
the radiative change due to CO2, but I would submit the only objective one is to change the whole column and surface by the same temperature and find out what that temperature is independently for each global column (as I posted elsewhere here regarding MODTRAN).