In the summer tropics, outgoing longwave
radiative cooling from the surface to space is not effective in the high water vapour, optically thick environment of the tropical oceans.
The magnitude of this effect varies from model to model and leads to increased adiabatic heating of the polar regions, compensating in part the increased
radiative cooling from CO2 increases.
Not exact matches
The model calculations, which are based on data
from the CLOUD experiment, reveal that the
cooling effects of clouds are 27 percent less than in climate simulations without this effect as a result of additional particles caused by human activity: Instead of a
radiative effect of -0.82 W / m2 the outcome is only -0.60 W / m2.
Results show that the intrusion of dust
from the Sahara Desert caused
radiative cooling of Earth's surface.
During this event, the aerosols stayed close to the surface due to the presence of a anticyclone hovering over the study region at sea - level, «reducing the amount of shortwave irradiance reaching the surface and causing greater
radiative cooling,» states Obregón, who likens the effects of desert dust with those resulting
from certain forest fires or episodes of high pollution.
After
radiative cooling, air subsiding
from a warmer upper troposphere may eventually slowly warm the oceans.
That's far
from the worst flaw in his calculation, since his two biggest blunders are the neglect of the
radiative cooling due to sulfate aerosols (known to be a critical factor in the period in question) and his neglect of the many links in the chain of physical effects needed to translate a top of atmosphere
radiative imbalance to a change in net surface energy flux imbalance.
You've got the
radiative physics, the measurements of ocean temperature and land temperature, the changes in ocean heat content (Hint — upwards, whereas if if was just a matter of circulation moving heat around you might expect something more simple) and of course observed predictions such as stratospheric
cooling which you don't get when warming occurs
from oceanic circulation.
In other words, the same natural forcings that appear responsible for the modest large - scale
cooling of the LIA should have lead to a
cooling trend during the 20th century (some warming during the early 20th century arises
from a modest apparent increase in solar irradiance at that time, but the increase in explosive volcanism during the late 20th century leads to a net negative 20th century trend in natural
radiative forcing).
But the troposphere can still warm with an increased
radiative cooling term because it is also balanced by heating through latent heat release, subsidence, solar absorption, increased IR flux
from the surface, etc..
In chapter 11.3.6.3 they conclude: ``... it is concluded that the hiatus is attributable, in roughly equal measure, to a decline in the rate of increase in effective
radiative forcing (ERF) and a
cooling contribution
from internal variability (expert judgment, medium confidence)».
A compelling argument for the positive longwave response is a leading alternate to Lindzen's IRIS although it receives less attention, and is known as the FAT hypothesis (
from Dennis Hartmann) and arises
from the fundamental physics of convection only heating the atmosphere where
radiative cooling is efficient, and thus the temperature at the top of convective cloudiness should be near constant as it becomes warmer.
In general: even if the stratosphere as a whole
cools (in terms of a decrease in total flux going out, to balance
radiative forcings +
radiative response
from below), this doesn't necessarily mean
cooling occurs throughout; there could be some portions that warm.
In the tugging on the temperature profile (by net radiant heating /
cooling resulting
from radiative disequilibrium at single wavelengths) by the absorption (and emission) by different bands, the larger - scale aspects of the temperature profile will tend to be shaped more by the bands with moderate amounts of absorption, while finer - scale variations will be more influenced by bands with larger optical thicknesses per unit distance (where there can be significant emission and absorption by a thinner layer).
Finally, you mention water vapour as a GHG... but water vapour is the main
cooling component in the atmosphere, transporting heat
from the surface to the
radiative layer, so not really a true GHG.
Initially, shallow circulations driven by differential
radiative cooling induce a self - aggregation of the convection into a single band, as has become familiar
from simulations over idealized sea surfaces.
This
cooling to the surface can actually be a pretty large source of
cooling.To illustrate how important this is, the authors put this really informative table
from some idealized
radiative calculations.
Thus, while the net
radiative effect of clouds is that of warming (
cooling) across the tropics during La Niña (El Nino) events, the magnitude is quite small and varies greatly
from one event to another..»
(5) Halpern et al. like many others do not understand that any supposed warming effect (or
cooling effect) can not be derived
from spectroscopic analyses or
radiative transfer equations.
You write: «If internal variability (such a a
cool PDO phase) reduces the rate of increase of surface temperature, while the e [x] ternal forcing still is increasing, this means the
radiative imbalance is impeded
from being cancelled by surface warming.»
If internal variability (such a a
cool PDO phase) reduces the rate of increase of surface temperature, while the eternal forcing still is increasing, this means the
radiative imbalance is impeded
from being cancelled by surface warming.
The higher the concentration of «greenhouse» gases, the more optically thick the atmosphere, and therefore
radiative cooling to space takes place
from higher up in the atmosphere.
It may be quite close to LTE, but the departures
from LTE can not be neglected when considering
radiative heating and
cooling.
For example, if the emissivity of two bodies is very different, there can be more
radiative flux
from the
cooler one.
This is primarily based on the idea that the
radiative flux would induce significant warming, but then the evaporation
from the oceans and convective transport have a
cooling effect.
Oceans warm and
cool — the
radiative imbalances changes
from positive to negative.
So simply
from basic thermodynamics and heat transfer considerations when you're dealing with a
radiative imbalance El Nino is likely to heat the earth up as much as La Nina
cools it.
In short, Lindzen's argument is that the
radiative forcing
from aerosols is highly uncertain with large error bars, and that they have both
cooling (mainly by scattering sunlight and seeding clouds) and warming (mainly by black carbon darkening the Earth's surface and reducing its reflectivity) effects.
To understand why solar influence is so small, it's helpful to compare the
radiative forcing
from a
cooling sun to the
radiative forcing
from anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
This includes
radiative forcings such as a warming sun,
cooling from sulfate aerosols or warming
from CO2.
This «hiatus» is probably due to the
cooling influences
from natural
radiative forcings (more volcanic eruptions and reducing output
from the sun as part of the natural 11 - year solar cycle) and internal variability (fluctuations within the oceans unrelated to forcings).
It is not the infrared emission that
cools the surface as in the so - called
radiative equilibrium models because the net
radiative heat transfer surface to air is about nil, but the evaporation whose thermostatic effect can not be overstated: increasing the surface temperature by +1 °C increases the evaporation by 6 %; where evaporation is 100 W / m ², this removes an additional 6 W / m ²
from the surface.
(Yes, it does occur, even though John A will never concede the point, but of course, it is less than the
radiative power
from the warmer body to the
cooler body.)
This lets me segue into another issue on this thread —
radiative power
from cooler bodies to warmer bodies.
The evaporative, conductive and
radiative processes combined then set up a thermal gradient causing an upward flow of energy
from water to air
from where that 1 mm layer touches the ocean bulk below, up across the
cooler layer then to the Knudsen layer by reversing the normal (warm at the top and
cool at the bottom) temperature gradient which exists
from that 1 mm layer down to the ocean bottom.
Between 801 and 1800 ce, the surface
cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived
from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external
radiative forcings.
The primary drivers of these cloud changes appear to be increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and a recovery
from volcanic
radiative cooling.
In the idealised situation that the climate response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 consisted of a uniform temperature change only, with no feedbacks operating (but allowing for the enhanced
radiative cooling resulting
from the temperature increase), the global warming
from GCMs would be around 1.2 °C (Hansen et al., 1984; Bony et al., 2006).
The long term trend is that of
cooling with a
radiative forcing
from 1850 to 2000 of -0.7 Wm - 2.
The shape of the CO2 band is such that, once saturated near the center over sufficiently small distances, increases in CO2 don't have much affect on the net
radiative energy transfer
from one layer of air to the other so long as CO2 is the only absorbing and emitting agent — but increases in CO2 will reduce the LW
cooling of the surface to space, the net LW
cooling from the surface to the air, the net LW
cooling of the atmosphere to space (except in the stratosphere), and in general, it will tend to reduce the net LW
cooling from a warmer to
cooler layer when at least one of those layers contains some other absorbing / emitting substance (surface, water vapor, clouds) or is space)
The precipitation question is examined
from either conserving energy in the troposphere (i.e. looking at the condensational heating term, with latent heating being balanced by
radiative cooling) or at the surface (i.e. looking at the latent heating associated with evaporation).
Steve I will ask you to show the
radiative heat transfer equation in which you input an emission
from another body, gas / solid or fluid and show where it lowers the rate of
cooling.
Gerlich and Tscheuschner, despite their apparent mastery of the mathematics of
radiative transfer, don't know the difference between gross and net
radiative flux, and they are apparently unaware of the concept of causality in an Einsteinian framework — a molecule of CO2 emitting a photon in a random direction can't know if there is a (
cooler or warmer) surface in the direction of emission until time has elapsed for the photon to travel to the surface and back, and has no mechanism to remember
from one photon to the next whether there was a source of photons in that direction, or what the apparent temperature of the emitter was.
By contrast, here are the heating /
cooling rates
from a comprehensive (= «standard»)
radiative - convective model, plotted against height instead of optical thickness.
Comparing the trend in global temperature over the past 100 - 150 years with the change in «
radiative forcing» (heating or
cooling power)
from carbon dioxide, aerosols and other sources, minus ocean heat uptake, can now give a good estimate of climate sensitivity.
This hiatus in GMST rise is discussed in detail in Box 9.2 (Chapter 9), where it is concluded that the hiatus is attributable, in roughly equal measure, to a decline in the rate of increase in effective
radiative forcing (ERF) and a
cooling contribution
from internal variability (expert judgment, medium confidence).
The lapse rate means that radiation is reaching space
from ever -
cooler regions — which also means that
radiative efficacy decreases.
-LCB- 9.4, Box 9.2 -RCB- • The observed reduction in surface warming trend over the period 1998 to 2012 as compared to the period 1951 to 2012, is due in roughly equal measure to a reduced trend in
radiative forcing and a
cooling contribution
from natural internal variability, which includes a possible redistribution of heat within the ocean (medium confidence).
In fact, that's exactly what we would expect
from a super-strong greenhouse effect: the whole point of the greenhouse effect is that it decreases the rate at which the planet can
cool, by decreasing
radiative efficacy at (local) thermal wavelengths.
«Under these simplifying assumptions the amplification [f] of the global warming
from a feedback parameter [b](in W m — 2 °C — 1) with no other feedbacks operating is 1 / (1 --[bκ — 1]-RRB-, where -LSB--- κ — 1] is the «uniform temperature»
radiative cooling response (of value approximately — 3.2 W m — 2 °C — 1; Bony et al., 2006).