All these issues must be taken into account when calculating
the radiative effect of clouds, as is done in the radiative calculations by the ISCCP group.
This would require
the radiative effect of clouds to change from one that increases atmospheric radiative absorption by about \ (0.5 \, \ hbox -LCB- Wm -RCB- ^ -LCB--2 -RCB- \, \ hbox -LCB- K -RCB- ^ -LCB--1 -RCB- \) to one that decreases it by \ -LRB--3.5 \, \ hbox -LCB- Wm -RCB- ^ -LCB--2 -RCB- \, \ hbox -LCB- K -RCB- ^ -LCB--1 -RCB- \).
Thus, while the net
radiative effect of clouds is that of warming (cooling) across the tropics during La Niña (El Nino) events, the magnitude is quite small and varies greatly from one event to another..»
The radiative effect of clouds on the shortwave fluxes is computed as a seasonally varying (but fixed from one year to the next) and spatially varying atmospheric albedo.
Sally, who was nominated by Dr. Beat Schmid, Associate Director, Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, was honored for her exceptional contribution in the field of atmospheric science, particularly in her efforts to improve understanding of
the radiative effect of clouds and aerosols on the Earth's atmosphere and their representation in climate models.
The other two shortlisted missions — which had been whittled down from an original list of over 20 possibilities — were CoReH2O, which sought to model the water balance in glaciers and snow - covered areas, and PREMIER, which aimed to study chemical processes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere and
the radiative effects of clouds.
Shown are changes in
the radiative effects of clouds and in precipitation accompanying a uniform warming (4 °C) predicted by four models from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) for a water planet with prescribed surface temperatures».
The measurements are only for clear sky conditions, to remove the complexity associated with
the radiative effects of clouds (they did this by removing the measurements that appeared to be under cloudy conditions).
There is some uncertainty in the water vapor and cloud feedback strength, but this is not a serious uncertainty since water vapor and clouds are constrained by the Clausius - Clapeyron relation, and since the SW and LW
radiative effects of clouds cancel each other to a large degree.
Not exact matches
The model calculations, which are based on data from the
CLOUD experiment, reveal that the cooling
effects of clouds are 27 percent less than in climate simulations without this
effect as a result
of additional particles caused by human activity: Instead
of a
radiative effect of -0.82 W / m2 the outcome is only -0.60 W / m2.
Greenwald, T.J., G.L. Stephens, S.A. Christopher, and T.H.V. Haar, 1995: Observations
of the global characteristics and regional
radiative effects of marine
cloud liquid water.
Lin, W.Y., and M.H. Zhang, 2004: Evaluation
of clouds and their
radiative effects simulated by the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model against satellite observations.
Four and a half billion years after its birth, the shrouded planet is much too hot to support the presence
of liquid water on its surface because
of its dense carbon dioxide atmosphere and sulfuric acid
clouds, which retain too much
radiative heat from the Sun through a runaway greenhouse
effect.
While many basic aspects
of physics can be included (conservation
of mass, energy etc.), many need to be approximated for reasons
of efficiency or resolutions (i.e. the equations
of motion need estimates
of sub-gridscale turbulent
effects,
radiative transfer codes approximate the line - by - line calculations using band averaging), and still others are only known empirically (the formula for how fast
clouds turn to rain for instance).
Could the climate forcing itself, such as increasing GHGs, affect parameterizations independently
of the larger scale climate changes (for example, by changing thermal damping
of various kinds
of waves, or by changing the differences
of radiative effects between different amounts and kinds
of clouds)?
He goes so far as to say that the IPCC is biased against «internal
radiative forcing,» in favor
of treating
cloud effects as feedback.
«(for example, by changing thermal damping
of various kinds
of waves, or by changing the differences
of radiative effects between different amounts and kinds
of clouds)?»
(Water vapor and low - level
clouds can have a big
effect on the
radiative balance
of the surface.)
(Note that
radiative forcing is not necessarily proportional to reduction in atmospheric transparency, because relatively opaque layers in the lower warmer troposphere (water vapor, and for the fractional area they occupy, low level
clouds) can reduce atmospheric transparency a lot on their own while only reducing the net upward LW flux above them by a small amount; colder, higher - level
clouds will have a bigger
effect on the net upward LW flux above them (per fraction
of areal coverage), though they will have a smaller
effect on the net upward LW flux below them.
Kasting had one very primitive go at a
radiative - convective study
of the
effect of clouds on runaway greenhouse, which suggested that
clouds might prevent the whole ocean from going aloft.
First, for changing just CO2 forcing (or CH4, etc, or for a non-GHE forcing, such as a change in incident solar radiation, volcanic aerosols, etc.), there will be other GHE
radiative «forcings» (feedbacks, though in the context
of measuring their
radiative effect, they can be described as having
radiative forcings
of x W / m2 per change in surface T), such as water vapor feedback, LW
cloud feedback, and also, because GHE depends on the vertical temperature distribution, the lapse rate feedback (this generally refers to the tropospheric lapse rate, though changes in the position
of the tropopause and changes in the stratospheric temperature could also be considered lapse - rate feedbacks for forcing at TOA; forcing at the tropopause with stratospheric adjustment takes some
of that into account; sensitivity to forcing at the tropopause with stratospheric adjustment will generally be different from sensitivity to forcing without stratospheric adjustment and both will generally be different from forcing at TOA before stratospheric adjustment; forcing at TOA after stratospehric adjustment is identical to forcing at the tropopause after stratospheric adjustment).
wilt, the paper you cite describes what in their view is a «small but statistically significant
effect of cosmic rays on
cloud formation, which in no way invalidates the large and significant
effects of human emissions on the current anthropogenic
radiative forcing budget
of the atmosphere.
Indirect aerosol
effect - Aerosols may lead to an indirect
radiative forcing
of the climate system through acting as
cloud condensation nuclei or modifying the optical properties and lifetime
of clouds.
In addition, some models include the indirect
effects of tropospheric sulphate aerosols on
clouds (e.g., Tett et al., 2002), whereas others consider only the direct
radiative effect (e.g., Meehl et al., 2004).
To evaluate the global
effects of aerosols on the direct
radiative balance, tropospheric chemistry, and
cloud properties
of the earth's atmosphere requires high - precision remote sensing that is sensitive to the aerosol optical thickness, size istribution, refractive index, and number density.
A 1 % decrease in
cloud cover has a slightly higher
radiative effect as all the observed loss
of Arctic sea ice to date has had.
(Ramanathan and Inamdar 1989) So a 1 % decrease in
cloud cover has a slightly higher
radiative effect as all the observed loss
of Arctic sea ice to date has had.
If, for instance, CO2 concentrations are doubled, then the absorption would increase by 4 W / m2, but once the water vapor and
clouds react, the absorption increases by almost 20 W / m2 — demonstrating that (in the GISS climate model, at least) the «feedbacks» are amplifying the
effects of the initial
radiative forcing from CO2 alone.
The
effect of this mixed dust - pollution plume on the Pacific
cloud systems and the associated
radiative forcing is an outstanding problem for understanding climate change and has not been explored.
For instance — changes in upwelling
of frigid sub-surface water having an
effect on
clouds and that influencing global energy dynamics — as shown in satellite
radiative flux data.
DMS is the primary source in the sulfate mass budget over the remote ocean west
of 80 ° W. • The first aerosol indirect
effect has been observationally quantified over the SEP, with
cloud thinning
of the more polluted coastal
clouds mitigating the overall
radiative impact.
adding two variables that were requested in the ACCMIP Word document but not explained in the spreadsheet: the longwave and the shortwave
cloud radiative forcing with reference (fixed) composition, for diagnosis
of aerosol indirect
effect.
Radiative effects of surface - observed cloud cover anomalies, called «cloud cover radiative forcing (CCRF) anomalies,» are estimated based on a linear relationship to climatological cloud radiative forcing per unit clo
Radiative effects of surface - observed
cloud cover anomalies, called «
cloud cover
radiative forcing (CCRF) anomalies,» are estimated based on a linear relationship to climatological cloud radiative forcing per unit clo
radiative forcing (CCRF) anomalies,» are estimated based on a linear relationship to climatological
cloud radiative forcing per unit clo
radiative forcing per unit
cloud cover.
but this is the full CMIP3 ensemble, so at least the plot is sampling the range
of choices regarding if and how indirect
effects are represented, what the
cloud radiative feedback & sensitivity is, etc. across the modelling community.
«This is the cause - versus -
effect issue I have been harping on for years: You can not measure
cloud FEEDBACK (temperature changes causing
cloud changes) unless you can quantify and remove the
effect of internal
radiative FORCING (
cloud changes causing temperature changes).
I am concerned about the apparent lack
of correlation between the shortwave reflections and CRF as measured by the neutron counter (figure 6 on my DRAFT copy
of «Cosmic rays modulation
of the
cloud effects on the
radiative flux in the Southern Hemisphere Magnetic Anomaly region»).
The reprocessing
of ISCCP produced a better distinction between the
radiative effects of high opaque and cirrus
clouds, in better agreement with the 3I results.
Ozone depletion in the late twentieth century was the primary driver
of the observed poleward shift
of the jet during summer, which has been linked to changes in tropospheric and surface temperatures,
clouds and
cloud radiative effects, and precipitation at both middle and low latitudes.
Andrew Lacis wrote: (3) Water vapor and
clouds account for about 75 % the strength
of the terrestrial greenhouse
effect, but are feedback
effects that require sustained
radiative forcing to maintain their atmospheric distribution.
The second factor is the insulating
effect of the atmosphere
of which well over 90 % results from atmospheric water in the form
of clouds and water vapour with the remaining 10 % due primarily from CO2 and ozone with just a slightly detectable
effect from methane and a trivial
effect from all the other gases named in tyhe Kyoto Accord that is so small it can't even be detected on measurements
of the Earth's
radiative spectrum.
The Pacific system resulted in a
cloud radiative effect of 1.8 W / m2 over the tropical Pacific — based on Earth Radiation Budget Experiment data.
Instead, the aim
of our Science paper was to illustrate as clearly and as simply as possible the basic operating principles
of the terrestrial greenhouse
effect in terms
of the sustaining
radiative forcing that is provided by the non-condensing greenhouse gases, which is further augmented by the feedback response
of water vapor and
clouds.
(3) Water vapor and
clouds account for about 75 % the strength
of the terrestrial greenhouse
effect, but are feedback
effects that require sustained
radiative forcing to maintain their atmospheric distribution.
However, another source
of uncertainty in the monthly mean zonal
cloud radiative effects comes from the low frequency
of clear - sky occurrence, when averaging over regions that correspond to the spatial resolution
of general circulation models.
La Nina certainly cools the atmosphere with energy transferred between ocean and atmosphere — but different lines
of evidence suggest that
cloud radiative effects dominate with both oceans and atmosphere cooling.
This will tend to enhance the greenhouse
effect, though the situation is complicated by the difficulty in both projecting changes in
cloud formation and determining the
radiative forcing
effect of clouds.
Furthermore, a model that could realistically simulate the impact
of increasing atmospheric particle concentration on climate must eventually include the simultaneous coupled
effects of all the important atmospheric processes, such as fluid motions and
cloud microphysics, in addition to the
radiative transfer
effects.»
He thought that this connection might occur via the
effect of cosmic ray induced ionization on aerosol and
cloud condensation nuclei and thus on the
radiative properties
of clouds.
Hartmnn derived an average
cloud radiative forcing
of -27.6 W / m ^ 2 — a net cooling — as the overall average
effect of clouds on global climate.
And anyways, is the solar uncertainty (we understand the sign) really so much more greater than that associated with the
effects of clouds on climate (see my recent post The
cloud climate conundrum), where even the sign
of the feedback is uncertain and the magnitude
of cloud forcing swamps greenhouse gas
radiative forcings.