Or, the difference between the worst case IPCC scenario and the best conceivable «alternative scenario» by 2050 is only about 1 W / m2 mean
radiative energy imbalance.
Not exact matches
Changes in TSI can be converted into a
radiative forcing, which tells us the
energy imbalance it causes on Earth.
This is a very straightforward and easy to understand formula - the larger the change in solar irradiance, the larger the
energy imbalance it causes, and thus the larger the
radiative forcing.
That's far from the worst flaw in his calculation, since his two biggest blunders are the neglect of the
radiative cooling due to sulfate aerosols (known to be a critical factor in the period in question) and his neglect of the many links in the chain of physical effects needed to translate a top of atmosphere
radiative imbalance to a change in net surface
energy flux
imbalance.
The surface temperature change is proportional to the sensitivity and
radiative forcing (in W m - 2), regardless of the source of the
energy imbalance.
Despite the difficulties of calibration that makes an absolute
radiative imbalance measurement impossible — the anomalies data contains essential information on climate variability that can be used to understand and close out the global
energy budget — changes in which are largely OHC.
Because we understand the
energy balance of our Earth, we also know that global warming is caused by greenhouse gases — which have caused the largest
imbalance in the
radiative energy budget over the last century.
[
Radiative forcing is the amount of
imbalance between
energy reaching the Earth and radiating into space.]
Starting from an old equilbrium, a change in
radiative forcing results in a
radiative imbalance, which results in
energy accumulation or depletion, which causes a temperature response that approahes equilibrium when the remaining
imbalance approaches zero — thus the equilibrium climatic response, in the global - time average (for a time period long enough to characterize the climatic state, including externally imposed cycles (day, year) and internal variability), causes an opposite change in
radiative fluxes (via Planck function)(plus convective fluxes, etc, where they occur) equal in magnitude to the sum of the (externally) imposed forcing plus any «forcings» caused by non-Planck feedbacks (in particular, climate - dependent changes in optical properties, + etc.).)
So if BNO can not exist powered by a store of
energy BNO (S), or powered by a
radiative imbalance BNO (R), how can it exist?
How can Wien's law require more
energy - out be generated but the only source of
energy for global warming (except the solar) is by reducing the
energy - out to create an
energy imbalance to create the
radiative warming.
There are a myriad of other
radiative forcings that affect the planet's
energy imbalance.
This does not support the existence of either a large positive
radiative imbalance or a «missing
energy».
Several runs with the model under future emissions scenarios where the
radiative imbalance is known exactly and a distinct
energy imbalance at TOA was occurring nonetheless featured several stases in surface temperatures for more than a decade.
Similarly, the cross-equatorial
energy flux (~ -0.2 PW) represents a small residual
imbalance between the two hemispheres which each have, for example, shortwave
radiative energy gains and longwave
radiative energy losses of tens of PW.
What we're talking about here is basically the amount of unrealized warming, whereas the
radiative forcing tells you the total net
energy imbalance since your choice of start date (the IPCC uses 1750).
Your hypothesis assumes that increased absorption of
energy in the troposphere will be transmitted to the surface by convection, since
radiative transfer doesn't change if the temperature remains constant, and the
radiative imbalance at the TOA wouldn't change.
The
radiative forcing (IPCC 2007) is about 1.6 W m − 2 for both carbon dioxide increases alone and also the total with all other effects included (0.6 — 2.4 as 95 % confidence limits), and the net
energy imbalance of the planet is estimated (Trenberth et al. 2009) to be 0.9 ± 0.5 W m − 2.
There was some mention of
energy imbalance but I can not see how
energy imbalance can be calculated from
radiative forcing and heat uptake.
Since a long - term lack of trend in GMST should indicate zero TOA
radiative flux
imbalance, this implies the existence of
energy leakages within those models.
Over the past several centuries, human greenhouse gas emissions have caused by far the largest
radiative forcing (
energy imbalance), and thus must be the driver of any observed long - term global warming.
For starters, a long - term increase in the average global temperature must be caused by a global
energy imbalance - an external
radiative forcing.
The TOA
imbalance minus the net surface flux (from * all * fluxes, latent,
radiative, etc.) gives the rate of change of the atmospheric
energy content.
The
radiative imbalance (or
energy transfer) is only 26W / m ^ 2 from the Surface to the Atmosphere.]
Most notably his last two papers have been mostly cherry - picking data and then basically claiming that the over 90 % of the
energy of the
radiative imbalance that goes into oceans can be «neglected».
Is your grasp of the basics of physical climatology so weak that you do not understand that > 90 % of the
energy accumulating in the climate system as a result of
radiative imbalance is going into the oceans?
And what's the relationship between that
energy flux and TOA
radiative imbalance?
That is exactly the point: The whole reason you want to solve for the
radiative imbalance at the top - of - the - atmosphere is that it is rather useless to solve for the surface where other
energy flows are just as important.
Over the longer term the accuracy is better, there is less wiggle room, and in fact we are able to balance out the
energy flows — i.e. the increase in ocean heat content is pretty much what is expected from the anticipated
radiative imbalance (see the figure).
Radiative forcing is a way to quantify an
energy imbalance imposed on the climate system either externally (e.g., solar
energy output or volcanic emissions) or by human activities (e.g., deliberate land modification or emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and their precursors).
He has not provided evidence showing that there are significant negative feedbacks that would offset the
radiative imbalance caused by the
energy absorption properties of the CO2.
He can not provided evidence showing that there are significant negative feedbacks that would offset the
radiative imbalance caused by the
energy absorption properties of the CO2.
Changes in TSI can be converted into a
radiative forcing, which tells us the
energy imbalance it causes on Earth.
Indeed, the
radiative imbalance was negative, meaning the earth was losing slightly more
energy than it absorbed.
The term «
radiative forcing» refers to a global
energy imbalance on Earth, which may be caused by various effects like changes in the greenhouse effect or solar activity.