At a 2007 conference Cowan reported» Interannual / multidecadal variability linked to the SAM» and «about 1/2 of
rainfall decline attributable to anthropogenic forcings».
Their web site explains: «In southwest WA, a drying trend has been observed...
The rainfall decline has been most apparent in late autumn and early winter, with a major drop in rainfall totals occurring in the 1970s, and possibly another more recently in the 1990s.
The result offers qualified support for the argument that the monsoon - like circulation may contribute to
the rainfall decline in early winter over SWWA.
These deficiencies re-emerge against a background of significant longer - term
rainfall decline over southern Australia which has now persisted for decades.
That is still the case with regard to the observed winter
rainfall decline since about 1970 although, to be precise, I would now add:» however, we can not rule out the possibility that that the enhanced greenhouse effect has contributed to the decline.»
Well before
the rainfall decline the seeds for the conflict were being sown as Sudan's population climbed from 9 million in 1950 to 39 million in 2007, more than a fourfold rise.
Most of
the rainfall decline (61 %) has occurred in autumn (March - May).
A similar
rainfall decline occurred in the southwest of western Australia around 1970 that has many common features with the SEA decline.
Natural processes changed the timing and magnitude of soil moisture, streamflow, and groundwater deficits by up to several years, and caused the amplification of
rainfall declines in streamflow to be greater than in normal dry years.
Because some species respond predictably by producing narrower annual rings when
rainfall declines, the researchers were able to plot precipitation year by year from the 1500s on.
Not exact matches
While one NASA satellite measured up to 25 percent
decline in
rainfall across two thirds of the Amazon from 2000 to 2012, a set of different satellite instruments observed a 0.8 percent
decline in greenness over the Amazon.
Existing models suggest the current extent of deforestation should reduce
rainfall, but researchers have not yet observed the
decline, according to the study's authors.
These
declines in
rainfall could potentially alter the region's climate, disrupting rainforest ecosystems and impacting local economies, according to the study's authors.
In the future, Betts says, a consistent
decline in annual
rainfall could trigger a feedback loop.
At the same time,
declines in
rainfall of up to 40 % would hit northwest India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, western China, and neighboring western - central Asia.
Simulating natural and humanmade climate drivers, scientists showed that the
decline in
rainfall is primarily a response to humanmade increases in greenhouse gases as well as a thinning of the ozone caused by humanmade aerosol emissions.
One of the most striking signals of change emerged over Australia, where a long - term
decline in fall and winter
rainfall has been observed over parts of southern Australia.
Southern Australia's
decline in
rainfall began around 1970 and has increased over the last four decades.
The analysis demonstrated a
decline in
rainfall intensity, despite an increase in total
rainfall over the years.
For the western swamp tortoise, whose numbers in the wild are now estimated at just 50 breeding adults,
declining rainfall is the primary concern.
Interestingly, the study shows that there is a long - term
decline in heavy
rainfall events (greater than 25 mm / h) and an associated increase in the number of smaller storms each delivering less
rainfall.
Swamps that were wet for 5 to 7 months of the year in the 1960s are now often dry for most of the year, and
rainfall is set to
decline further in the future.
Water scarcity, in particular, has been a source of territorial conflict when traditional systems of land management fail in the face of rising populations and temperatures and
declining rainfall.
«In standard theories, if we lose forests the
rainfall in the continental interiors generally
declines by 10 to 30 per cent.
The recent paper, published August 30 in Science Advances, found that without significant changes, Jordan could face lower
rainfall, much higher temperatures and as much as a 75 percent
decline in water flowing into the country from Syria.
Rather than focusing just on lower
rainfall, the team measured three types of drought as they affect Jordan:
rainfall decrease, agricultural soil moisture loss and
declines in freshwater streams.
This lower - intensity
rainfall implies less runoff over the surface, which means we should see a
decline in runoff over a whole basin.
Consequently, there are grave concerns that the
rainfall patterns altered by climate change could trigger a forest
decline on a global scale.
In the maximum expansion scenario, cool roofs led to a 4 percent
decline in
rainfall.
Cory Cleveland, a UM professor of terrestrial ecosystem ecology, said that previous research in the wet tropics — where much of global forest productivity occurs — indicates that the increased
rainfall that may occur with climate change would cause
declines in plant growth.
For significant periods of time, the reconstructed large - scale changes in the North Pacific SLP field described here and by construction the long - term
decline in Hawaiian winter
rainfall are broadly consistent with long - term changes in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) based on ENSO reconstructions documented in several other studies, particularly over the last two centuries.
The decreasing
rainfall (shown in the top graph below) combined with rising temperatures (second graph) resulted in a
decline in soil moisture (third graph), the researchers say.
Indeed, that region has seen a general increase in
rainfall over the long term during most seasons (certainly no material
decline).
I am unaware of indications, from model projections, for a material
decline in mean
rainfall.
Declining rainfall and overgrazing are combining to destroy the grasslands.
Even if that were true, you would only be demonstrating a correlation between rising temperatures and
declining rainfall, not that one had caused the other.
By combining temperature and
rainfall records, growth
declines were found to be more common in the warmer, drier locations.
Snowfall varies across the region, comprising less than 10 % of total precipitation in the south, to more than half in the north, with as much as two inches of water available in the snowpack at the beginning of spring melt in the northern reaches of the river basins.81 When this amount of snowmelt is combined with heavy
rainfall, the resulting flooding can be widespread and catastrophic (see «Cedar Rapids: A Tale of Vulnerability and Response»).82 Historical observations indicate
declines in the frequency of high magnitude snowfall years over much of the Midwest, 83 but an increase in lake effect snowfall.61 These divergent trends and their inverse relationships with air temperatures make overall projections of regional impacts of the associated snowmelt extremely difficult.
Extreme
rainfall events and flooding have increased during the last century, and these trends are expected to continue, causing erosion,
declining water quality, and negative impacts on transportation, agriculture, human health, and infrastructure.
Emissions produced by human activity have caused annual monsoon
rainfall to
decline over the past 50 years, a study suggests.
Many crop yields are predicted to
decline due to the combined effects of changes in
rainfall, severe weather events, and increasing competition from weeds and pests on crop plants (Ch.
Brysse et al. (2012) also found that the IPCC has tended to underestimate or failed to account for CO2 emissions, increased
rainfall in already rainy areas, continental ice sheet melting, Arctic sea ice
decline, and permafrost melting.
This
decline is due to shifts in wind and
rainfall patterns, resulting in changes in upwelling patterns, a well - known effect of climate change [56].
NOAA scientists have developed a new high - resolution climate model that shows southwestern Australia's long - term
decline in fall and winter
rainfall is caused by increases in manmade greenhouse gas emissions and ozone depletion, according to research published today in Nature Geoscience.
Second, there was no shortage of
rainfall in the region to cause a natural
decline in water storage.
In 2002 for example, a break in the monsoon rains saw July receiving only about 50 % of its normal
rainfall, leading to cuts in agricultural output and
declining GDP.
Australia's climate is expected to become warmer and drier overall.3 In a medium - emissions scenario, 19 temperatures are projected to rise about 1.8 ° F (1 ° C) in the next few decades.3
Rainfall is expected to
decline 3 - 5 percent, and evaporation to increase 2 - 4 percent3 — creating conditions conducive to an environment for increasing frequency of bushfires.
The dramatic
decline in Arctic sea ice and snow is one of the most profound signs of global warming and has coincided with «a period of ostensibly more frequent events of extreme weather across the mid-latitudes, including extreme heat and
rainfall events and recent severe winters,» according to the conference organizers, who are posting updates under the #arctic17 hashtag on Twitter.
And even if
rainfall decreases only slightly from today's levels, evaporation typically increases as temperatures rise, so Namibia is likely to become even drier.9 As water becomes scarcer, the range and number of wildlife supported by Etosha and other national parks could
decline.9
Scientists in the US say parts of Australia are being slowly parched because of greenhouse gas emissions — which means that the long - term
decline in
rainfall over south and south - west Australia results from fossil fuel burning and depletion of the ozone layer by human activity.