Equivalent results for heavy
rainfall events in Southern Asia and tropical Africa suggest these would increase in line with global average temperature rise.
Once done, I hope to be able to offer an approach which will better predict the recurrence time of rare
rainfall events in the the face of increasing temperatures.
The role of global warming in unusually large
rainfall events in countries from the United Kingdom to China has been hotly debated.
By comparing the numbers of extreme
rainfall events in the two ensembles, «Weather@Home» will work out if the risk of a wet winter has increased, decreased or been unaffected by human influence on climate.
By comparing the numbers of extreme
rainfall events in the two ensembles, we can work out if the risk of a wet winter has increased, decreased or been unaffected by human influence on climate.
That means whenever we have heavy (and prolonged)
rainfall events in the future, we can expect them to be more intense.
An increased risk of intense, short - duration
rainfall events in mid-latitude regions has been predicted consistently for well over a decade as part of the pattern of human influence on precipitation.
«This suggests that unexpected above average
rainfall events in the Ohio and Mississippi River basins will continue to increase the frequency of extreme flooding events on these Great Rivers.»
The indications of climate change are all around us today but now researchers have revealed for the first time when and where the first clear signs of global warming appeared in the temperature record and where those signals are likely to be clearly seen in extreme
rainfall events in the near future.
Olson says climate scientists predict a continued pattern of extreme
rainfall events in the upper Mississippi River region.
This suggests that unexpected above - average
rainfall events in the Ohio and Mississippi River basins will continue to increase the frequency of extreme flooding events.
As our boatman was explaining as we approached it, he called it — he said this event,
this rainfall event in 1966 had formed, «The ulcer - inducing spectacle,» known as Crystal Rapid.
Just days later, a real - time analysis by scientists working with Climate Central's World Weather Attribution program has found that global warming has boosted the odds of such an extreme
rainfall event in the region by about 40 percent — a small, but clear, effect, the scientists say.
As always, few were ready for an extreme
rainfall event in the dry prairie.
«Harvey was the most significant tropical cyclone
rainfall event in United States history, both in scope and peak rainfall amounts, since reliable rainfall records began around the 1880s».
Rooijmans wrote of a reduction in rainfall in one
rainfall event in one place, of more than 50 %, but increased rainfall elsewhere.
While the initial focus of Weather@home ANZ is on extreme events that occurred in 2013, simulations will also be performed for other years, allowing scientists to assess better the possible role of climate change in such events as the Black Saturday bushfires in Australia in 2009, the record
rainfall event in Golden Bay, New Zealand in 2011 and the record rainfall events in eastern Australia in 2010 and 2011.
Not exact matches
The National Weather Service called the
rainfall event «unprecedented», and while the National Hurricane Center's warnings of «catastrophic and life - threatening flooding» have subsided, the floodwaters
in southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana will take days, if not a week, to retreat.
Growing scarcity
In addition to a growing scarcity of natural resources such as land, water and biodiversity «global agriculture will have to cope with the effects of climate change, notably higher temperatures, greater
rainfall variability and more frequent extreme weather
events such as floods and droughts,» Diouf warned.
She uses this knowledge of plants, and specifically their leaf waxes, to document past changes
in plant life and
rainfall patterns, including studies on the expansion of grasslands
in Africa and the revegetation of Antarctica during a prior warming
event.
While the trends associated with climate change — hotter days, heavier
rainfall and a greater number of extreme weather
events — are present
in the models, for many crops
in Africa and Asia it's not clear how extensive the effects will be.
But
in the past, such drought - spawning
events actually occurred during the monsoon season; «the drought peaks at the time when normally this area is receiving its maximum month of
rainfall,» Abrams says.
Matching the models with stalagmites There was a much clearer correlation between less
rainfall in the region and the Heinrich
events, Carolin said.
New Zealand experienced an extreme two - day
rainfall in December 2011; researchers said 1 to 5 percent more moisture was available for that
event due to climate change, which is increasing the amount of water vapor
in the atmosphere.
Prather's new research could be the first step
in a longer process toward better predicting — and maybe even artificially manufacturing —
rainfall events.
Overall, the chances of seeing a
rainfall event as intense as Harvey have roughly tripled - somewhere between 1.5 and five times more likely - since the 1900s and the intensity of such an
event has increased between 8 percent and 19 percent, according to the new study by researchers with World Weather Attribution, an international coalition of scientists that objectively and quantitatively assesses the possible role of climate change
in individual extreme weather
events.
The article, «Extreme
rainfall activity
in the Australian tropics reflects changes
in the El Niño / Southern Oscillation over the last two millennia,» presents a precisely dated stalagmite record of cave flooding
events that are tied to tropical cyclones, which include storms such as hurricanes and typhoons.
Dr Stephen Grimes of Plymouth University, who initiated the research project, highlighted the climate changes that must have caused this increase
in sediment erosion and transport — «We have climate model simulations of the effect of warming on
rainfall during the PETM
event, and they show some changes
in the average amounts of
rainfall, but the largest change is how this
rainfall is packaged up — it's concentrated
in more rapid, extreme
events — larger and bigger storms.»
Dry places are likely to get drier;
rainfall is likely to arrive
in fewer but more concentrated episodes; and extreme weather
events such as tropical cyclones are likely to increase
in intensity.
Since 2002, Denmark's challenge
in dealing with extreme rain
events has meant that many urban areas have been immersed
in water following heavy
rainfall.
Interestingly, the study shows that there is a long - term decline
in heavy
rainfall events (greater than 25 mm / h) and an associated increase
in the number of smaller storms each delivering less
rainfall.
Rather than assign blame to humans for particular extremes, scientists could study a class of
events, such as heavy
rainfall in a certain geography, and say whether past human actions have increased their risk.
What we call the weather is a highly detailed mix of
events that happen
in a particular locality on any particular day —
rainfall, temperature, humidity and so on — and its development can vary wildly with small changes
in a few of these variables.
What goes up, must come down and, more and more, that water vapor is coming down
in extreme precipitation
events — defined
in North America as more than 100 millimeters of
rainfall (or the equivalent
in snow or freezing rain) falling
in 24 hours — according to new research also published February 17
in Nature that examines such
events in the Northern Hemisphere.
If the risk for such an
event during this century increased
in a steady, linear fashion, it would mean that there was a 6 percent chance of having Harvey's magnitude of
rainfall in Texas this year.
«When you take a very, very rare, extreme
rainfall event like Hurricane Harvey, and you shift the distribution of rain toward heavier amounts because of climate change, you get really big changes
in the probability of those rare
events,» Emanuel says.
While Houston's yearly risk of experiencing a 500 - millimeter
rainfall event was around 1
in 2,000 at the end of the last century, Emanuel found the city's annual odds will increase significantly, to one
in 100 by the end of this century.
Already, there's evidence that extreme
rainfall events are on the rise and are expected to worsen
in the coming years.
In this new study, the researchers therefore used data from 46 experiments on grassland plant diversity in order to test the hypothesis of a positive effect of biodiversity on the resistance and resilience of ecosystems to various climate events, from drought to extreme rainfal
In this new study, the researchers therefore used data from 46 experiments on grassland plant diversity
in order to test the hypothesis of a positive effect of biodiversity on the resistance and resilience of ecosystems to various climate events, from drought to extreme rainfal
in order to test the hypothesis of a positive effect of biodiversity on the resistance and resilience of ecosystems to various climate
events, from drought to extreme
rainfall.
This abrupt
event shows how a relatively small occurrence — such as a slight slide
in rainfall — may have a tremendous impact.
Under the Obama administration, climate change has been on the Department of Defense's radar from how it affects national security to how military installations around the world should prepare for climate impacts, like sea level rise at naval bases, melting permafrost
in the Arctic and more extreme
rainfall events around the world.
Air and water temperatures, precipitation patterns, extreme
rainfall events, and seasonal variations are all known to affect disease transmission.59, 199,86
In the United States, children and the elderly are most vulnerable to serious outcomes, and those exposed to inadequately or untreated groundwater will be among those most affected.
The scientists found an extreme
rainfall event that would normally happen once every 100 years (i.e. there's a one per cent risk of it occurring
in any given year) is now happening more like once
in 80 years (or a 1.25 per cent risk).
They found that although still a rare
event, such heavy
rainfall is now expected roughly once
in 200 years while it would only have been a 1
in 350 year
event in a world without global warming.
In Canada, an extreme
rainfall event, made worse by a stalled weather system likely powered by an unstable Arctic and climate change, has closed down the country's oil trading capital.
NASA
in America, hardly a radical source, confirms we can expect more extreme
rainfall events due to climate change.
According to the results, the major link between an ENSO
event and changes
in the temperature and
rainfall in Nigeria is associated with shifts
in the ITCZ position.
The another most important climate variation is El Niño — Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
events, which impact the global oceanic and atmospheric circulations which thereby produce droughts, floods and intense
rainfall in certain regions.
event in 536 AD, the Mayan collapse around 800 AD, and the Norse colony collapse
in Greenland to make his case that societies can be vulnerable to abrupt shifts
in rainfall, temperature etc..
If we were to argue that other
events would require anomalous
rainfall over Australia's interior basins comparable to that
in 2010 - 11, then we could use the
rainfall record to infer such sea level drops.